Operations Report Tag B. Short, Director South Region Operations Entergy Regional State Committee (ERSC) February 14, 2018 1
Winter Operations Highlights South Region Max Gen Event Regional Dispatch Transfer Data 2
MISO 2018 Winter To-Date Review MISO Total Load MISO South Load Highlights Average: 80.3 GW (Dec 17 Jan 18) 74.9 GW (Dec 16 Feb 17) Peak: 106.1 GW (Jan 17, 2018) 109.3 GW (January 2014) Weather: Arctic air swept through the footprint the end of December and most of January Average: 20.6 GW (Dec 17 Jan 18) 17.9 GW (Dec 16 Feb 17) Peak: 32.1 GW (Jan 17, 2018) 32.1 GW (January 2018) Weather: Record cold temperatures the week of January 15 th Challenging weather events were managed well New Wind peak of 15.0 GW New South winter peak load Emergency Energy Purchases used Snow and ice in the South shut down businesses, schools and government offices In Louisiana, Governor Edwards declared a State of Emergency 3
South Region Max Gen Event MISO and Members reliably managed operations during periods of extreme cold during the month of January High load, driven by cold temperatures, and unavailable generation, created challenges Enhancements made following the 2014 polar vortex, especially in electric-gas coordination, improved MISO s performance On January 17 th, MISO advanced to a Maximum Generation Event Step 2c/d in MISO South, making emergency energy purchases to meet load obligations, manage the Regional Dispatch Transfer, and maintain reliability 4
Record low South temperatures, high load, and unavailable generation contributed to operating challenges throughout the week of January 15 th Extreme Cold Temperatures and Atypical Load Below average temperatures for the South Region challenged load forecasting and drove higher than normal load Outages Forced generation outages and delayed outage returns intensified already tight conditions Neighboring systems in the South experienced similar conditions MISO communicated with neighbors during the event on realtime conditions 5
GW Fahrenheit ( ) MISO South January 17 th peak load was 1.8% lower than the region s all-time peak, realized in August 2015 35.0 South Region Peak Load and Low Temperature 90 30.0 80 80 70 25.0 60 20.0 All-Time Peak All-Time Winter Peak 50 15.0 10.0 5.0 32.7 27.0 27 31.1 20 32.1 13 31.0 17 40 30 20 10 0.0 8/10/2015 1/15/2018 1/16/2018 1/17/2018 1/18/2018 0 Peak Load Hourly Low Temperature 6
Load, as well as cold temperatures, peaked on January 17 th in MISO South, leading to particularly challenging circumstances South Region Average Hourly Temperature ( o F) South Region Average Hourly Load (GW) 60 33 31 50 29 40 27 25 30 23 21 20 19 10 17 15 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour January History (2014-2017) January 2018 January 17th 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour January History (2014-2017) January 2018 January 17th The chart reflects data through 01/28/2018 The chart reflects data through 01/28/2018 7
Operators used emergency procedures to reliably manage extreme cold temperatures in the South Region on January 17 th and 18 th South Region Only 01/15/2018 27 o F 01/16/2018 20 o F 01/17/2018 13 o F 01/18/2018 17 o F Peak Load 27.0 GW 31.1 GW 32.1 GW 31.1 GW Conservative Operations Cold Weather Alert Max Gen Alert Max Gen Event Step 1 Max Gen Event Step 2 Record temperatures, high load, force generation outages and de-rates, as well as delayed outage returns, contributed to the challenging conditions 8 Indicates declaration was active during that day
0:05 1:00 1:55 2:50 3:45 4:40 5:35 6:30 7:25 8:20 9:15 10:10 11:05 12:00 12:55 13:50 14:45 15:40 16:35 17:30 18:25 19:20 20:15 21:10 22:05 23:00 23:55 Tight forecasted conditions led to commitment of all available resources in the South and the use of emergency operating procedures 35 33 31 South Region Load and Capacity (GW) January 17 Emergency Energy Purchases 18,000 16,000 14,000 South Region Daily Average South Generation Outages and Derates (MW) January 17 Total: ~17,000 MW 3,551 29 12,000 4,049 27 10,000 25 8,000 6,000 23 4,000 9,466 21 2,000 Available Resources (Max) MTLF* Non-Stranded Resources Actual Load 0 Forced Planned Derates *MTLF based on generated load forecast, LBA entered data, and control room discussions The chart reflects the data as it resided in the CROW Outage system on Jan 29, 2018 9
MW Forced generation outages and derates, in addition to delayed outage returns, further stressed system conditions 20,000 18,000 16,000 Daily Average Generation Outages and Derates - South Region Forced Planned Derates Unavailable Generation By State South Region January 17 14,000 12,000 TX, 2.6% MS, 16.8% 10,000 8,000 6,000 AR, 23.5% LA, 57.1% 4,000 2,000 0 January 15 January 16 January 17 January 18 10
MW Load management was implemented on January 17 th and 18 th to address shortage conditions LMR/LMM Stage 1 1200 January 17 January 18 1000 800 600 400 200 0 8 9 10 11 20 21 22 23 7 8 9 10 11 12 LMR 1.4 11.2 108.5 156.5 184.7 699.7 700.1 632.6 676.1 778.6 778.6 929.7 929.7 929.7 LMM 15 15 15 15 0 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Self Sched LMR 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0 0 0 0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 0 Hour Ending MISO South has no registered Emergency Demand Response 11 MISO is reviewing Load Modifying Resource performance. Data will be available after settlements.
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 MW Emergency energy purchases also helped manage the Regional Dispatch Transfer 4500 4000 3500 3000 Approximately 1100 MW of Emergency Energy Purchases were implemented starting around 0730 EST 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 RDT (North-South) UDS Flow Hour January 17 N-S Limit 12
Conclusions and Lessons Learned Coordination within MISO, with members, and with neighboring RCs ensured reliable outcomes Increased staffing during the extreme cold weather event Drills on emergency processes enables successful plan execution Demand Side Management was implemented Further review after receiving meter data from Market Participants Continue to drill on process Emergency Energy Purchases were successfully implemented Additional clarification needed in the procedure Additional training to be conducted 13
Regional Dispatch Transfer Flow
Regional Dispatch Transfer Performance 15
Regional Dispatch Transfer Performance 16
Regional Dispatch Transfer Performance Seasonal View 17
Appendix
MISO planned for, monitored, and responded to changing system conditions throughout the day Declaration Region Start Time (EST) End Time (EST) Conservative Operations South 1/15/2017 6:00 1/18/2017 1400 Cold Weather Alert South 1/16/2017 6:00 1/18/2017 1400 Maximum Generation Alert South 1/17/2017 5:00 1/17/2017 12:00 EEA Level 2 and Maximum Generation Event Step 2a/b South 1/17/2018 7:00 1/17/2018 12:00 LMR Scheduling Instructions Sent (900 MW) South 1/17/2018 7:00 1/17/2018 11:00 Modified Conservative Operations RC Footprint 1/17/2018 6:00 1/17/2018 14:00 Modified Maximum Generation Alert North & Central 1/17/2018 6:00 1/17/2018 12:00 Maximum Generation Event Step 2c/d South 1/17/2018 6:10 1/17/2018 12:00 Emergency Energy Purchase (700 MW) South 1/17/2018 7:30 1/17/2018 12:45 Emergency Energy Purchase (300 MW) South 1/17/2018 7:34 1/17/2018 10:00 Emergency Energy Purchase (150 MW) South 1/17/2018 8:15 1/17/2018 12:00 Maximum Generation Alert Termination North & Central 1/17/2018 9:00 Conservative Operations Termination North & Central 1/17/2018 9:30 Maximum Generation Event Step 2c/d South 1/17/2018 6:10 1/17/2018 14:00 Reduced the 7:30 Emergency Energy Purchase to 350 MW South 1/17/2018 12:45 1/17/2018 13:15 EEA Level 1 and Maximum Generation Event - Step 1a South 1/17/2018 14:00 1/17/2018 23:59 EEA Level 2 and Maximum Generation Event - Step 2a/b South 1/17/2018 19:00 1/17/2018 23:59 LMR Scheduling Instructions Sent (1000 MW) South 1/17/2018 19:00 1/17/2018 23:00 Maximum Generation Event - Step 2c/d South 1/18/2018 6:00 1/18/2018 12:00 LMR Scheduling Instructions Sent (1000 MW) South 1/18/2018 6:00 1/18/2018 12:00 LMM Implementation (15 MW) EES EEA Level 1 and Maximum Generation Event - Step 1b/c South 1/17/2018 20:55 1/17/2018 23:59 EEA Level 0 and Maximum Generation Alert South 1/17/2018 23:15 1/18/2018 23:59 EEA Level 2 and Maximum Generation Event - Step 2c/d South 1/18/2018 6:00 1/18/2018 12:00 LMR Scheduling Instructions Sent South 1/18/2018 6:00 1/18/2018 12:00 EEA Level 0 and all Events/Alerts Terminated South 1/18/2018 10:45 19
Lessons learned from the 2014 Polar Vortex have become a standard part of successful operations Gas-Electric Coordination Initiatives Enhanced Operational Tools Gas-Electric Market Alignment Generation Fuel Survey MISO Winterization Guidelines Operational Situational Awareness Generation Portfolio Diverse generation pool to ensure reliability Planning and collaboration with members and gas industry for wind and natural gas utilization Emergency Preparedness FERC Winter Readiness Technical Conference MISO EOP & Winter Readiness Workshops Emergency Response & Power System Restoration Drill Operational Readiness Communication, Coordination, and Planning Reliability & Pipeline Calls Pipeline & Price Monitoring Emergency Procedures Operational & Market Enhancements 20
MISO s operating procedures ensure reliability and gain access to certain resources during emergency situations Emergency Operating Procedures guide operator actions when an event has the potential to, or actually does, negatively impact system reliability Maximum Generation Emergency Procedures Geo- Magnetic Disturbance Warning Conservative System Operations Severe Weather Alert Tier I Emergency Price Offer Floor Tier II Emergency Price Offer Floor Cold Weather Alert Hot Weather Alert 21
Capacity Sufficiency Issues Status Update February, 2018 22
Executive Summary Issue Statement During events in October 2016 and April 2017, MISO did not adequately predict insufficient capacity conditions in sub-areas which led to MISO commencing steps of the Maximum Generation Event procedure and declaring Conservative System Operations Update Summary MISO has completed a majority of the shortterm/medium-term recommendations and has better visibility, coordination and procedures in place. MISO is currently working on technology solutions to provide better tools to Operations Personnel 23
MISO s goal is to improve visibility into capacity sufficiency issues through completion of process improvement recommendations. Currently 64% of recommendations are complete while working on long-term solutions. Overall Status Completed - 18/28 In Progress - 7/28 Not Started - 3/28 Issue Theme Application of Regional Directional Transfer Limit Not Started In Progress Completed 1 3 3 Completed Not Started 11% 25% In Progress 64% Reserve Zones - 1 1 Determination of Stranded MWs - - 4 Conservative System Ops & Capacity Emergencies 2 1 1 Outage Analysis - 1 4 Process and Reporting - 1 5 Key Projects: 1.Cross functional team performing a staged analysis to ensure adequate operating reserves including evaluation of Reserve Zones Market Design and Evaluation, Transmission Security Planning, & Unit Commitment Teams 2.MISO Policy Decision on application of RDT across MISO Operations in progress. Operations Management 3.Generator Outage Capacity Impact Analysis Capital Project in progress. Outage Coordination Tool Improvement 4.IT Agile Team added storage for historical data on the South Sufficiency display to aid data analysis. Completed. Unit Commitment 24
Questions tshort@misoenergy.org