INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP: BIOWETMAN - wetlands management and conservation, 19 February 2009, INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGY BUCHAREST, ROMANIAN ACADEMY Observed and near future projections of weather extremes in Romania C. Boroneant*, S. Cheval, A. Dumitrescu, M. Caian, A. Busuioc, A. Enculescu, M. Niculae National Meteorological Administration Bucharest, Romania *e-mail: boroneant@meteoromania.ro
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Period Rate 25 0.177±0.052 50 0.128±0.026 100 0.074±0.018 150 0.045±0.012 Years /decade
Potential Impact of CC IPCC Assessment - 2 February, 2007 Virtually certain > 99%, very likely > 90%, likely > 66%, more likely than not > 50%
Most disaster losses, whether measured in terms of the number of events (here averaged across the world, 1994-2003), the lives lost or material destruction, stem from extreme atmospheric events and weather related natural hazards Epidemics (15.2%) Volcanic eruptions (1.4%) Floods (33%) Earthquakes and Tsunamis (7%) Avalanches (0.7%) Landslides (4.5%) Droughts (15%) Storms (23%) From ICSU Scoping Group on Natural and human-induced environmental hazards. Report 28GA/9.1, October 2005.
What are extreme events? We define extreme events as occurrences that, relative to some other class of related occurrences, are either notable, rare, unique, profound, or otherwise significant in terms of their impacts, effects, or outcomes.
Extreme Events
Data and Methods Daily observations at 100 stations in Romania (1961-2008) 10-km simulations with RegCM (1961-1990; 2021-2050) Extreme indices for temperature and precipitation Weather and climate extremes case studies
FP6 project: CECILIA Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and VulnerabiLIty Assessment Objectives: Quantification (based on appropriate regional modelling and downscaling approaches) of specific climate change impacts in central-eastern Europe. Probable changes over the next decades to a century should be considered including changes of weather patterns, extreme events, water resources, and associated consequences on e.g. agriculture, forestry and air pollution levels.
Observation data
Annual mean of daily Tmean, Tmax, Tmin 1961-2007
Annual Tmax 90 th and 10 th percentiles
Annual Tmin 10 th and 90 th percentiles
Annual no. of frost days (Tmin <0 C ) and no. of days without defrost (Tmax <0 C )
Annual no. of growing degree days (> 5 C); and frost season length (Tmin < 0 C )
Winter-significant increase over the south-western regions Summer- significant increasing over the western regions
Simulated data
Frequency distribution of daily Tmax RegCM simulations ERA40 A1B scenario
Frequency distribution of daily Tmin RegCM simulations ERA40 A1B scenario
Frequency distribution of daily precip RegCM simulations ERA40 A1B scenario
Extreme events Case studies
Weather extremes of 2007
Winter 2006-2007- the warmest of the last century o C 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Abateri ale temperaturii medii lunare fata de normala climatologica, sept.2006-sept. 2007 IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 Temperatura medie a aerului din timpul ierniimedia pe tara -7 1902 1912 1922 1932 1942 1952 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002 January 2007 the warmest month of the winter 2007; the monthly temperature anomalies vs climatological normal ranged between 6.1 o C and 8.0 o C. The absolute maximum temperature records of the month have been broken at 24 station in Romania.
30.0 C Bucuresti Filaret tmax tmed max tmax absoluta tmin temd min 25.0 20.0 December 2006 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 5 10 15 20 25 30 4 9 14 19 24 zile The evolution of daily maximum and minimum temperature in comparison with their multiannual means and absolute records of daily extreme temperature at Bucuresti Filaret station during December 2006-February 2007.
Number of the days with daily Tmax 40.0 o C (total over the country during July) 1909 1916 1927 1938 1945 1950 1965 1968 1985 1987 1988 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2007 1 12 2 2 2 2 2 1 24 44 19 2 4 100 1 2 148 Monthly mean / JULY 2007
Monthly temperature anomalies during 2007 vs. the projected temperatures of A2 scenario for the end of 21 st century oc 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Schimbari in media lunara a temperaturii pentru perioada 2070-2099, RegCM3, medie spatiala, Scenariul A2 I II III IV V VI VII VII IX X XI XII o C 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Abateri ale temperaturii medii lunare fata de normala climatologica, sept.2006-sept. 2007 IX X XI XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
Heavy precipitation 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 GALATI FOCSANI TECUCI ADJUD BARLAD BACAU VASLUI NEGRESTI ROMAN IASI mm medie multianuala septembrie 5.09.2007 mm/mi n 2.5 2.0 TECUCI ploaia 1 din 05/09/2007 1/10 ani 1/50 ani 1/100 ani mm/min 2.5 2.0 TECUCI ploaia 2 din 05/09/2007 1/10 ani 1/50 ani 1/100 ani 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 10 20 30 40 50 60 minute 70 80 90 100 110 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 minute 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 mm/mi n 3.0 2.5 ADJUD ploaia 1 din 05/09/2007 1/10 ani 1/50 ani 1/100 ani mm/min 3.0 2.5 ADJUD ploaia 2 din 05/09/2007 1/10 ani 1/50 ani 1/100 ani 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 10 40 70 100 130 160 190 220 250 280 310 340 minute 370 400 430 460 490 520 550 580 0.0 10 20 30 40 50 minute 60 70 80 90 Extreme events case studies: heavy rain precipitation event 5 September 2007
Monthly temperature and precipitation totals January-October 2008 vs multiannual means 40.0 O C mm 140.0 35.0 130.0 120.0 30.0 110.0 25.0 100.0 90.0 20.0 80.0 15.0 70.0 60.0 10.0 50.0 5.0 40.0 30.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 20.0 10.0 0.0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 2008 61-90 2008 61-90