QUANTITATIVE FINANCE RESEARCH CENTRE

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QUANTITATIVE FINANCE RESEARCH CENTRE QUANTITATIVE FINANCE RESEARCH CENTRE Research Paper 241 December 2008 Viability of Markets with an Infinite Number of Assets Constantinos Kardaras ISSN 1441-8010

VIABILITY OF MARKETS WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF ASSETS CONSTANTINOS KARDARAS Abstract. A study of the boundedness in probability of the set of possible wealth outcomes of an economic agent is undertaken. The wealth-process set is structured with reasonable economic properties, instead of the usual practice of taking it to consist of stochastic integrals against a semimartingale integrator. We obtain the equivalence of the boundedness in probability of wealth outcomes with the existence of at least one supermartingale deflator, and, in case the set of wealth outcomes is closed in probability, with the existence of the numéraire in the wealth-process set. 1. Introduction and Discussion of the Results Consider a filtered probability space (Ω, F, (F t ) t R+, P) that is modeling dynamically the underlying uncertainty of an economic environment. On (Ω, F, (F t ) t R+, P), let X be a set of nonnegative càdlàg (right continuous with left-hand limits) adapted stochastic processes representing the available credit-constrained wealth streams that an economic agent can use. The wealth-process set X has some reasonable, from an economical point of view, structure. Namely, there exists at least one strictly positive wealth process in X that can be used as a baseline, and X satisfies weakened version of fork-convexity, introduced in [17]. The purpose of this work is to study equivalent conditions to the boundedness in probability of the set {X T X X }, where T is a finite stopping time, representing the agent s fixed financial planning horizon. Before summarizing the contributions of the paper, some remarks on related previous work pointing to the importance of the problem will be given. The boundedness in probability of {X T X X } comes up as a market viability condition, essentially equivalent to absence of arbitrages of the first kind in the terminology of [9]; see also [10] in the context of large financial markets, as well as [14] where arbitrages of the first kind are called cheap thrills. In problems whose solutions involve duality techniques, as is for example the superhedging formula (see for example Theorem 5.7 of [7] and Théorèm 2 of [2]) or the expected utility maximization problem (see [13]), some topological properties of {X T X X } have to be utilized. Unfortunately, L 0 (the set of all equivalence classes, modulo P, of all random variables endowed with the metric topology of convergence in probability) has very poor topological properties. For example, the failure of local convexity has lead some authors to state and prove ab initio results like the bipolar theorem (see [5] and its dynamic version [17] that is close to the setting of this paper), without the help of the powerful separating hyperplane theorems (see, for example, Theorem 5.79 and Theorem 5.103 of [1]). The scarcity of compact subsets of L 0 has lead to the introduction of the notion of convex compactness in [16], Date: January 9, 2009. 1

2 CONSTANTINOS KARDARAS a natural and useful substitute of compactness when dealing with problems involving convexity. As is shown in [16], the convexly-compact sets in L 0 are exactly the ones that are convex, closed and bounded in L 0. The present paper can then be seen as contributing in the further analysis of convexly-compact sets in a dynamic environment. The main result of the paper, Theorem 2.3, states that, for a wealth-process set X, there is equivalence between the boundedness in probability of {X T X X } and the existence of at least one strictly positive supermartingale deflator Y for the elements of X ; the latter means that Y is a strictly positive process such that Y X is a supermartingale with Y 0 X 0 1 for all X X. Existence of a strictly positive supermartingale deflator is closely related to, but weaker, than existence of an equivalent supermartingale measure (also called a separating measure) for X. In the case where {X T X X } is closed in probability, the previous two conditions also shown to be equivalent to the existence of the numéraire in X, i.e., the unique process X X such that 1/ X is a supermartingale deflator. The idea behind the numéraire dates as back as [15], who analyzed its connections with market viability in a discrete-time as well as a Brownian continuous-time setting. Later, in [6] and [11], the analysis was carried to general semimartingale financial models. Theorem 2.3 refines and widens the scope of previous findings, like the ones in [11], where the set X was considered to consists of stochastic integrals generated by a semimartingale integrator. In fact, we can handle in a unifying approach markets that contain any number of assets, be it finite, as is the case of equity markets, or infinite, as is the case of bond market models. We also provide a result, Theorem 2.6, stating that if a wealth-process set X with {X T X X } being bounded in probability contains at least one strictly positive semimartingale, then all wealth processes in X are semimartingales. Needless to say, even though Theorem 2.6 comes as a rather straightforward consequence of Theorem 2.3, its statement goes a significant step in giving important information on the structure of X. The structure of the paper is simple: in Section 2 all the results are stated, while Section 3 contains all the proofs. 2. The Results 2.1. Notation and definitions. All stochastic processes in the sequel are defined on a filtered probability space (Ω, F, (F t ) t R+, P). Here, P is a probability on (Ω, F), where F is a σ-algebra. The filtration (F t ) t R+ is such that F t F for all t R + and is assumed to satisfy the usual hypotheses of right-continuity and saturation by P-null sets. It will be assumed throughout that F 0 is trivial modulo P. We fix a finite stopping time T that will have the interpretation of financial planning horizon for an economic agent. Every stochastic process X that will be used below will be assumed to satisfy X t (ω) = X T (ω) (ω) when t T (ω), for all (ω, t) Ω R +.

VIABILITY OF MARKETS WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF ASSETS 3 The set of all equivalence classes (modulo P) of random variables is denoted by L 0, and is endowed with the metric topology of convergence in P-probability. Recall that a set C L 0 is called bounded in L 0 if lim l sup f C P[ f > l] = 0. The set of all nonnegative càdlàg and adapted processes is denoted by D +. We also set { } D ++ := X D + inf X t > 0, P-a.s.. t [0,T ] Definition 2.1. The set X D + will be called a wealth-process set if: (1) X D ++ ; (2) X is convex; (3) X has the fork property: for any X X, X X, any τ R + and any A F τ, the process { X τ Xt (ω), if t < τ, or t τ and ω / A; I Ω\A X + I A X τ X τ = X τ (ω) X τ (ω) X t(ω), if t τ and ω A. is also an element of X. (Note that a notion of fork-convexity, stronger than combining convexity and the fork property defined above, appears in [17].) A set X as in Definition 2.1 should be thought as modeling the wealth processes, after possible dynamic free disposal of wealth, that are available in the market to be used by some financial agent. The condition X D ++ translates in that there exists at least a strictly positive wealth process in X that can be used as a baseline; for example, this could be a nondecreasing continuous process that models the bank account. Convexity has clear economic interpretation: if an agent can invest in two wealth streams X X and X X, then that agent should be allowed to invest a fraction α (0, 1) in X and the remaining fraction 1 α in X, therefore asking that αx + (1 α)x is an element of X as well. The significance of the fork property can be argued as follows: Keeping the notation of Definition 2.1, suppose that an agent can use both wealth processes X and X. We should then allow for the possibility that, starting with the wealth process X, at time τ the agent decides whether this particular wealth stream will be followed until the end (on the event Ω \ A F τ ), or whether it will be switched to the wealth steam X (on the event A F τ ), in which case X τ /X τ units of the new wealth stream X can be purchased at time τ. Let X be a wealth-process set. The process-polar X of X is X := {Y D + Y X is a supermartingale with Y 0 X 0 1 for all X X }. Of course, 0 X. It is not clear whether X contains other, more interesting elements. In Theorem 2.3 below, we shall have much to say. We now define another central notion of the paper. Let X be a wealth-process set. If there exists a process X X D ++ such that (1/ X) X, then X will be called the numéraire in X. This definition was given in [3] in the case where X consists of nonnegative wealth processes starting from less than unit capital and appear as stochastic integrals with respect to a given semimartingale

4 CONSTANTINOS KARDARAS (which is considered to model the discounted price processes of liquid assets in the market). As observed in the latter paper, if the numéraire in X exists, then it is unique by an application of Jensen s inequality. This also gives justice to the use of the definite article in the definition of the numéraire. 2.2. The equivalence result. The first main Theorem 2.3 below connects the boundedness in L 0 of the terminal values of a wealth-process set X, the non-emptiness of X D ++, and the existence of the numéraire in X. We first give an equivalence result between boundedness in L 0 of the terminal values of a wealth-process set and the stronger property of boundedness in L 0 of the whole wealth-process paths. Proposition 2.2. Let X D + be a wealth-process set. Then, the following are equivalent: (1) The set {X T X X } is bounded in L 0. (2) The set {sup t [0,T ] X t X X } is bounded in L 0. In particular, if X D + is a wealth-process set with {X T X X } being bounded in L 0, then sup X X X 0 <. The quantity sup X X X 0 should be thought as the initial capital of the agent that can decide amongst that available wealth processes in X. Here is the main equivalence result. Theorem 2.3. Let X be a wealth-process set. Then, the following are equivalent: (1) The set of wealth outcomes {X T X X } is bounded in L 0. (2) X D ++. If, furthermore, {X T X X } is closed in L 0, the above are also equivalent to: (3) The numéraire in X exists. Remark 2.4. The elements of X D ++ are called supermartingale deflators, for obvious reasons. In the utility maximization problem considered in [13], X o plays the very important role of the domain of a dual problem. We note that all results of [13] hold under the model for wealth processes that appears here, which extends the situation in where X is generated by stochastic integrals with respect to a certain semimartingale. Instead of asking the NFLVR condition of [7], what we require is the weaker condition of boundedness in L 0 of {X T X X }, which also has an elegant economic interpretation: failure of {X T X X } to be bounded in L 0 is equivalent to existence of cheap thrills in the financial market, a concept introduced in [14]. For more information, the interested reader should also check [12]. Remark 2.5. The equivalence (1) (2) of Theorem 2.3 could potentially be proved using the filtered bipolar theorem of [17], which is a dynamic version of the static analogous result in [5]. The proof given here at 3.2 is direct and is actually using heavily the concept of the numéraire in X.

VIABILITY OF MARKETS WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF ASSETS 5 2.3. A note on semimartingales. The next result comes as a consequence of Theorem 2.3. Theorem 2.6. Let X be a wealth-process set such that {X T X X } is bounded in L 0. Then, for any X X D ++, X/ X is a semimartingale for all X X. As a corollary, if there exists a semimartingale in X D ++, then every process in X is a semimartingale. When X is generated by results of simple integrands with respect to a given semimartingale, a version of Theorem 2.6 can be found in [12]; check also Theorem 7.1 of [7]. The difference in the present treatment is that no underlying finite-dimensional asset-price process is stipulated from the outset only the structure of the wealth-process set is modeled. In particular, we can also incorporate markets with infinite number of assets, as is described later in 2.4. Theorem 2.6 has some flavor of the celebrated Bichteler-Delacherie Theorem (see, for example, [4]), as it is connecting L 0 -boundedness of the terminal values of the wealth-process set X with the (relative) semimartingale property of the wealth processes of X themselves. The difference here is that X is not consisting of outcomes of simple stochastic integrals of unit-bounded predictable integrands against a given integrator process, but rather a set of stochastic processes with specific economically-motivated properties. Remark 2.7. If we assume the existence of an adapted, nondecreasing and càdlàg (actually, in most cases continuous) riskless wealth process in X, which is then certainly a semimartingale, Theorem 2.6 implies that all wealth processes in X are semimartingales. 2.4. Generating wealth-process sets via trading. We present here a canonical way of constructing wealth-process sets. Let (S i ) i I be a collection of nonnegative càdlàg processes representing the prices of some financial assets, all discounted by a fundamental baseline asset. The set I can be finite or infinite. Examples of the former situation are equity markets where we usually take I = {1,..., d}, for some d N. The latter situation can describe for example bond markets where I = R +, each T I representing the maturity of a zero-coupon bond. Then, S T = P T /B for all T I, where B is an adapted, nonnegative and càdlàg process modeling the savings account, and each P T models the price of zero-coupon bond with maturity T and is modeled as being adapted, nonnegative, càdlàg, and satisfying P T t = 1 for all t T. Let R I + denote the set of consisting of z = (z i ) i I R I + where only a finite number of coordinates z i are non-zero. An R I +-valued simple predictable process is of the form θ := n j=1 f ji ]τj 1,τ j [, where n ranges in the natural numbers N = {1, 2,...}, τ 0 = 0, and for j = 1,..., n, τ j is a finite stopping time and f j is R I -valued and F τj 1 -measurable. Starting from unit initial capital and following the strategy described by the simple predictable process θ, the so-acquired discounted wealth process is (2.1) X θ := x + n j=1 i I f i j ( ) Sτ i j Sτ i j 1.

6 CONSTANTINOS KARDARAS We require that there are no short sales of the risky assets and the baseline asset; mathematically, (2.2) θ t R I +, as well as θts i t i Xt, θ for all t R +. i I where the subscript t is used to denote the left-hand limit of processes at time t R +. We then define the set X of all no-short-sale wealth processes using simple trading, which are the wealth processes X θ given by (2.1) such that (2.2) holds. It is very easy to see then that X is a wealth-process set. Furthermore, it is easy to see that X = { Y D + Y 0 1 and Y S i is a supermartingale for all i I }. 3. The Proofs 3.1. Proof of Proposition 2.2. Since (2) (1) always holds, one only needs to focus on proving (1) (2). Since X D ++, we might as well assume that 1 X ; otherwise, we consider the set {X/ X X X } for some X X D ++ instead of X, and observe that {X T X X } is bounded in L 0 if and only if {X T / X T X X } is bounded in L 0. Before continuing with the proof, observe also that the fork property of X implies that, for any X and X elements of X, the càdlàg process I Ω\A X + I A (X τ /X τ )X τ is also an element of X whenever τ is a stopping time with a finite number of possible values and A is an F τ -measurable set. Start now by assuming that {sup t [0,T ] X t X X } is not bounded in L 0. Then, there exist some ɛ > 0 and a sequence (X n ) n N where X n X for all n N such that P[sup t [0,T ] X n t > n + 1] > 2ɛ for all n N. Consider now the sequence (σ n ) n N of stopping times defined via σ n := inf {t R + X n t n + 1} T for all n N. There exists a sequence (τ n ) n N of stopping times that take a finite number of values and such that P[Xτ n n < Xn σn 1] < ɛ, which means that P[Xτ n n > n] > ɛ, for all n N. In view of the fork property of X and the fact that 1 X, we have Xτ n n X for all n N. Since P[X n τ n > n] > ɛ for all n N, {X T X X } is not bounded in L 0. 3.2. Proof of Theorem 2.3. We shall first state and prove Theorem 2.3 below, which is the static version of Theorem 3.1. Before that, some notation and definitions will be introduced. Set L 0 + := { f L 0 P[f 0] = 1 } and L 0 ++ := { f L 0 P[f > 0] = 1 }. For a set C L 0 +, its polar C is defined via C := { g L 0 + E[gf] 1, for all f C }. Theorem 3.1. Let C L 0 + with C L 0 ++. Assume that C is convex and closed in L 0. Then, the following statements are equivalent: (1) C is bounded in L 0. (2) C L 0 ++. (3) There exists f C L 0 ++ such that (1/ f) C.

VIABILITY OF MARKETS WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF ASSETS 7 Remark 3.2. Convex, closed and bounded in L 0 sets are exactly the convexly compact sets in L 0 in the terminology of [16]. The result of Theorem 3.1 says in effect that a set C L 0 + with C L 0 ++ is convexly compact if and only if the numéraire in C (which would be the element f C in statement (3) of Theorem 3.1) exists. Proof of Theorem 3.1. (1) (3) To begin with, observe that for proving (1) (3) we might assume that 1 C; otherwise, we consider C := (1/f)C for some f C L 0 ++ and notice that if f is the numéraire in C, then f := f f is the numéraire in C. Furthermore, observe that we might as well assume that C is a solid set; that is, that f C and 0 f f imply f C. Indeed, this happens because the random variable f that satisfies the numéraire condition (3) has to be a maximal element of C. The previous remarks and assumptions will be in force in the course of the proof of (1) (3). For all n N, let C n := {f C f n}, which is a convex, closed and bounded set in L 0 with C n C. Consider now the following optimization problem: (3.1) find f n C n such that E[log(f n )] = sup f C n E[log(f)]. The fact that 1 C n implies that the value of the above problem is not. Further, since f n for all f C n, one can use of Lemma A.1 from [7] in conjunction with the inverse Fatou s lemma and obtain the existence of the optimizer f n of (3.1). Fix n N. For all f C n and ɛ [0, 1/2], one has (3.2) E [ ɛ (f f n )] 0, where ɛ (f f n ) := log ((1 ɛ)f n + ɛf) log (f n ). ɛ Fatou s lemma will be used on (3.2) as ɛ 0. For this, observe that ɛ (f f n ) 0 on the event {f > f n }. Also, the inequality log(y) log(x) (y x)/x, valid for 0 < x < y, gives that, on {f f n }, the following lower bound holds (remember that ɛ 1/2): ɛ (f f n f n f ) f n ɛ(f n f) f n f f n (f n f)/2 = 2fn f f n + f 2. Using now Fatou s Lemma on (3.2) now gives E [(f f n )/f n ] 0, or equivalently that E [f/f n ] 1, for all f C n. Lemma A.1 from [7] again gives the existence of a sequence ( f n ) n N such that each f n is a finite convex combination of (f k ) k=n,n+1,... and such that f := L 0 - lim n f n exists. For future reference, write f n = m n k=n αk nf k for all n N, where m n N, α k n 0 for all n N and k = 1,..., m n and mn k=n αk n = 1. The assumptions on C of Theorem 3.1 imply that all f n for n N are elements of C, as is f as well. Fix n N and some f C n. For all k N with k n, we have f n C k. Therefore, E [ f/f k ] 1, for all k n. A use of Jensen s inequality gives [ ] f m n [ ] f m n (3.3) E αne k α k f n n = 1. k=n f k k=n

8 CONSTANTINOS KARDARAS Then, Fatou s lemma implies that for all f n N Cn one has E[f/ f] 1. The extension of the last inequality to all f C follows from the solidity of C by a trivial application of the monotone convergence theorem. (3) (2). This is trivial, since (1/ f) C L 0 ++. (2) (1). Fix g C L 0 ++. For all l R + and f C, l P[fg > l] E[fg] 1. Therefore, sup f C P[fg > l] 1/l, i.e., the set {fg f C} is bounded in L 0. Since g L 0 ++, it is straightforward that C is bounded in L 0. Proof of Theorem 2.3. (1) (3). According to the implication (1) (3) of Theorem 3.1, applied to the set C := {X T X X }, which is assumed closed in L 0, there exists X X such that E[X T / X T ] 1 for all X X. We shall show that X is the numéraire in X. First of all, we claim that X 0 X 0 holds for all X X : Start by picking some X X. For any ɛ > 0, and with τ ɛ := T ɛ, the process X ɛ := ( X τ ɛ / X τ ɛ)x τ ɛ is an element of X by the fork property. Since X ɛ T / X T = X τ ɛ/ X τ ɛ, the numéraire property of X T in C gives E [ X τ ɛ/ X τ ɛ] 1. Then, X 0 / X 0 lim inf ɛ 0 E [ X τ ɛ/ X τ ɛ] 1 follows by an application of Fatou s lemma. We conclude that indeed X 0 X 0 holds for all X X. Now, take any X X and pick two times s < t in R + and some A F s. From the fork property of X, we obtain that X := X I Ω\A + (X s /X s ) X s I A is an element of X. Another application of the fork property of X gives that X := X I Ω\A + ( X t / X t )X t I A = X I Ω\A + ( X s / X t )(X t /X s ) X t I A is also an element of X. As X T / X T = I Ω\A + ( X s / X t )(X t /X s )I A, E[X T / X T ] 1 translates to E [ ( X s / X t )(X t /X s )I A ] P[A] holding for all A Fs. In other words, E [ ( X s / X t )(X t /X s ) F s ] 1 or, equivalently, E [ X t / X t F s ] Xs / X s, which shows that X/ X is a supermartingale and concludes the proof of the implication (1) (3). (1) (2). If {X T X X } is closed in L 0, this would be trivial since (1/ X) X D ++. We have to work harder in the case where {X T X X } is not necessarily closed in L 0. By dividing all elements of X with a wealth process in X D ++ if necessary, we can assume that 1 X. Also, we can also assume that X is process-solid: if X X, then XB X as well whenever B is a nonincreasing, adapted, càdlàg process with B 0 1. For X X, let τ n X := inf {t R + X t n} T. Then, for all n N, define X n := { X τ n X + ni {τ n X <T }I [τ n X, [ } X X. The fact that 1 X combined with the solidity property of X give X n X for all n N. In the terminology of [17], let X n be the smallest convex, process-solid and Fatou-closed set that contains X n. (Actually, the main result in [17], a dynamic version of the equivalent static result in [5], states that X n coincides with the process-bipolar of X n, a fact that nevertheless will not be needed here.) Since X T n for all X X n, the same inequality carries for all X X n as well, which means that

VIABILITY OF MARKETS WITH AN INFINITE NUMBER OF ASSETS 9 { XT X X n } is bounded in L 0. It is also true that { X T X X n } is closed in L 0, as results from an application of Lemma 5.2(1) of [8]. Theorem 2.3 then implies that the numéraire X n in X n exists. Let Ŷ n := X n, which, since 1 X n, is a nonnegative supermartingale, for all n N. Since 1 X n, we have X n 0 1 for all n N, and therefore sup n N Ŷ n 0 1. We claim that the convex hull of {Ŷ n t n N} is bounded away from zero in L 0 for all t R + : indeed, for any collection (α n ) n N such that α n 0 for all n N, having all but a finite number of α n s non-zero and satisfying n=1 αn = 1, we have 1 n=1 αnŷ α n 1 n Ŷ = n n=1 α n Xn X, which proves the claim in the beginning of the paragraph in view of Proposition 2.2. Using Lemma A1.1 of [7], one proceeds as in the proof of Lemma 5.2(a) in [8] to infer the existence of a sequence (Y n ) n N and some process Y D + such that Y n is a convex combination of Ŷ n, Ŷ n+1,... for all n N and such that (Y n ) n N Fatou-converges to Y. We then have that Y D ++, in view of the claim of the preceding paragraph. Since Ŷ n X is a supermartingale for all X X n, a conditional version of the inequalities 3.3 gives that Y n X is a supermartingale for all X X n. Then, by the conditional Fatou s lemma we get that Y X is a supermartingale for all X n N X n. Now, for any X X, define, for all n N, X n := X τ n X +ni {τ n X <T }I [τ n X, [, where as before we have set τ n X := inf {t R + X t n} T. Then, lim n X n = X and the conditional monotone convergence theorem gives that Y X is a supermartingale. Now, since Ŷ n 0 X 1 holds for all X X n and n N, it is straightforward that Y 0 X 0 1 for all X X. We have therefore shown that Y X D ++ and this finishes the proof of implication (1) (2). (3) (2). Simply observe that (1/ X) X D ++. (2) (1). Pick Y X D ++. Since l sup X X P[Y T X T > l] sup X X E[Y T X T ] 1 holds for all l R +, the set {Y T X T X X } is bounded in L 0. Then, since P[Y T n=1 > 0] = 1, the set {X T X X } is bounded in L 0. 3.3. Proof of Theorem 2.6. Consider the element Y X D ++ constructed in the proof of implication (1) (2) of Theorem 2.3. Let X X D ++. Since Y X is a supermartingale in D ++, Itô s formula implies that 1/(Y X) is a semimartingale. Therefore, for any X X, X/ X = (Y X)/(Y X) is a semimartingale. If now X X D ++ is further a semimartingale, then so is X/ X = X(1/ X) for all X X, and therefore so is X = X(X/ X) for all X X. References [1] C. D. Aliprantis and K. C. Border, Infinite dimensional analysis, Springer, Berlin, third ed., 2006. A hitchhiker s guide. [2] J.-P. Ansel, Remarques sur le prix des actifs contingents, in Séminaire de Probabilités, XXVIII, vol. 1583 of Lecture Notes in Math., Springer, Berlin, 1994, pp. 181 188. [3] D. Becherer, The numeraire portfolio for unbounded semimartingales, Finance Stoch., 5 (2001), pp. 327 341.

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