DROUGHT MONITORING BULLETIN 24 th November 2014 Hot Spot Standardized Precipitation Index for time period from November 2013 to April 2014 was, due to the lack of precipitation for months, in major part of Turkey classified as extreme drought conditions. Such conditions had impact on dropping water levels in reservoirs and also on agriculture production. Air Temperatures and Water Balance Winter season was denoted with very dry conditions in Turkey, which had lasted for several months. The highest rain shortages with high air temperatures prevailed in Western and Central Anatolia. January was wet in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula, along the coastline of Adriatic Sea and at the northwest. Very wet conditions continued at the northwest also in February, while in the major part of the rest of the Balkan Peninsula precipitation were below the long-term average (LTA) (1981-2010). January and February were warm in majority part of the Peninsula, with exception of Romania in both months and Slovenia in February. Turkey was divided in two parts, warmer than normal western part and eastern with normal to below average air temperatures. At the beginning of the year 2014, mainly in February, water deficits predominated in whole region. Water deficits were up to 50 mm, locally also higher. Water suficit was in February only in the northwestern countries (Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary) and in March in Bulgaria. 1
Air Temperature anomaly Water Balance anomaly APRIL MAY April was wetter than normal in whole Balkan. Central part of Balkan was extremely wet, with water balance surpluses also up to 150 mm. Even higher surpluses, more than 200 mm, was in May in parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia and also in minor part of Romania, where peak of abundant precipitation caused devastating floods. Meanwhile central and eastern part of Turkey was still dry, with water deficit up to 75 mm in April and up to 50 mm in May. Air temperatures in May were below LTA for around 2 C in the whole western part of Balkan. Along the whole Adriatic coastline air temperatures were classified in 33 % of the coldest years in the record. 2
Air Temperature anomaly Water Balance anomaly JUNE JULY Air temperatures in June were in normal range all over the region, while temperature anomalies in July in central Turkey were for 2 to 3 C above the LTA, classified as warm period. Situations along Adriatic coastline were about similar to those from May when average monthly air temperature was for more than 2 C colder than normal. Torrential rain in eastern Bulgaria and western Turkey caused floods in June. Rainy weather continues in July, when the highest amount of rain was recorded at the northwest of the Balkan. From April to July, with exception of northern part in June, water balance at Balkan Peninsula was classified as wet or very wet according to long-term period of 30 years. Areas with water balance surpluses moved from central and western part of Balkan in April and May to Bulgaria in June and central and northern part in July. At many parts of mentioned areas water balance exceeded LTA for more than 175 mm. 3
Air Temperature anomaly Water Balance anomaly AUGUST SEPTEMBER The highest deviations from LTA in scope of air temperatures in August were in Turkey and in the belt along the Black and Aegean Sea, where it was warmer for more than 2 C as normal and in inner part of the Turkey, with anomaly more than 3 C. Colder was at the high northwest, where average monthly air temperature was around 2 C below LTA. Share of precipitation due to LTA in August were unevenly distributed over the region. Water deficit at Balkan Peninsula was detected in August in belt from Dalmatia region in Croatia along the Adriatic coastline to the Albania, up to 50 mm, and in Romania in August and September, locally up to 75 mm. Elsewhere water balance in August was around LTA. The first autumn month September was again characterized with precipitation surpluses detected all over the region, with exception of Moldova and Romania. Surpluses were in the area from northwest of the Balkan Peninsula to central part of Bulgaria were water balance anomalies were even more than 200 mm above LTA. In many areas water balance was classified as very wet or in other words they were ranged among the 5 % of the wettest years in the record. Rainy weather prolonged in October. Year 2014 will be remembered due to serious dry conditions in winter and spring time in Turkey on the one hand and on the other hand torrential rain from May to November at the 4
almost the whole Balkan Peninsula causing havoc and devastating floods. Both phenomena had impact on crop yield; winter and spring crops were impacted in Turkey due to lack of water and also spring frost. Summer crops and autumn tillage were affected at the Balkan Peninsula due to excess of precipitation, with exception of Greece. SPI Index Maps of Standardized Precipitation Index for 6 months are presented while this time period well describes hydrological drought which Turkey was facing in spring. Balkan Peninsula had more problems with excessive water than water deficit in almost the whole year 2014. According to SPI6 extreme dry conditions prevailed in Turkey in parts of the Regions: Marmara, Black Sea and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia and also in central part of Bulgaria. In the following months all these regions experienced even worse conditions which spread also on western part of Turkey. Situation had started to improve in Bulgaria in March, but in Turkey not earlier than from May further on. Moderate dry conditions were detected also in central part of Balkan Peninsula; in parts of Serbia and Hungary in January; in Albania and Serbia in February; and in March from Albania at the south, trough Serbia and Hungary at the north, along the north Romania border to the Moldova at the east. 5
Impact reports As already mentioned Turkey experienced one of the driest winter in western and Central Anatolia with high temperatures and rain shortages in year 2014. Turkey experienced precipitation shortages from September 2013 further on, which significantly harmed agricultural and energy production. Compared to previous years, the amount of rainfall and snowfall was very low. On the one hand they had problems with lack of precipitation and on the other hand with unusual air temperatures. Due to very high air temperatures at the end of the March, which caused advanced phenological stages, fruit trees blossomed very early. Unfortunately frost hit those blossoming trees and caused huge damage. The amount of precipitation also remained under expectations in spring months, in March and April. At the beginning of the year 2014 Turkey had already problems with decreasing levels of drinking water dams, they faced with hydrological drought. In spring 2014 media reported about agricultural and socio-economic drought. Methodology Drought monitoring bulletin is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) model simulations over SE Europe and SPI index calculations. Precipitation data is provided by Global Precipitation data Centre (GPCC; gpcc.dwd.de). NWP simulations are performed with Nonhydrostatical Meso-scale Model (NMM, see: http://www.dtcenter.org/wrf-nmm/users/). Historical DMCSEE model climatology was computed with NMM model for time period between 1st January 1981 and 31st December 2010. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim data set (see: http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/era-interim) was used as input for simulations. Long term averages (1981-2010), used for comparison of current weather conditions, are obtained from simulated data set. Comparison of current values to long term averages provides signal on potential ongoing drought severity. 6