The Role of Wilderness in Climate Change Adaptation A Case Study of the Northern Rockies Greg Aplet, Bo Wilmer
Goal: Sustaining Ecosystem Services Sustaining the full suite of benefits we receive from wildlands. provisioning services (e.g., food, drug precursors, renewable energy) regulating services (e.g., carbon sequestration, waste decomposition, nutrient cycling) supporting services (e.g., water purification, crop pollination, pest control) cultural services (e.g., recreation, scientific discovery, spiritual inspiration) preserving services (e.g., biodiversity protection, hedging against uncertainty)
Sustainability: Old problem, new urgency Sustainability, by my definition, refers to maintenance of the potential for our land and water ecosystems to produce the same quantity and quality of goods and services in perpetuity. Preventing degradation of productive capacity. Preventing loss of biodiversity. J. F. Franklin (1993)
What do we mean by wildlands? Controlled Self-willed Urban Novel Wilderness Backcountry Frontcountry Rural Ecological Condition Pristine
The Land Use Gradient Controlled Self-willed C&O Canal Vacant Lot Downtown Chesapeake Bay Fire-excluded Ponderosa Pine Forest Pine Plantation Arctic Refuge Everglades Curtis Prairie Novel Pristine Ecological Condition
Directions of Management Controlled Self-willed Novel Pristine
Management Options Under Global Change Controlled Self-willed Novel Ecological Condition Pristine Pressure of Global Change Climate Change Invasive Species Pollution Fragmentation/Land-use
Adaptation One goal: Sustaining ecosystem services by maintaining productive capacity and biodiversity. A diversity of approaches: Resist Change Guide Change Accept Change A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change. IPCC Adaptation Report
A Portfolio of Approaches: IUCN Protected Area Categories Category Ia: Category Ib: Category II: Category III: Category IV: Category V: Category VI: Strict nature reserve Wilderness area National park Natural monument Habitat / species management area Protected land/seascape Managed resource protected area
Treatment Constraints
A Balanced Allocation Ia. Strict Nature Preserve Ib. Wilderness Area II. National Park III. Natural Monument IV. Habitat Mgmt. Area V. Land/Seascape VI. Managed Resource Protected Area Unprotected
The Ideal Experimental Landscape Well balanced in area Evenly distributed across environmental gradients Well connected across environmental gradients Acres (1000s) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 5000 7000 9000 >11000 Elevation (feet) VI V IV III III I
So, how balanced is our portfolio?
What about the Northern Rockies?
The Northern Rockies: A relative wealth of protected areas
Protected Area Balance in the Northern Rockies
Elevational Representation 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 Acres 10,000,000 8,000,000 Ia Ib II III IV V VI NA 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800-900 900-1000 - 1100-1200 - 1300-1400 - 1500-1600 - 1700-1800 - 1900-2000 - 2100-2200 - 2300-2400 - Elevation 2500-2600 - 2700-2800 - 2900-3000 - 3100-3200 - 3300-3400 - 3500-3600 - 3700-3800 - 3900-4000 - 4100 -
Ia
30.0% Category Ia. Strict Nature Reserves 25.0% 20.0% Full Range Ia 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900 1900-2000 2000-2100 2100-2200 2200-2300 2300-2400 2400-2500 2500-2600 2600-2700 2700-2800 2800-2900 2900-3000 3000-3100 3100-3200 3200-3300 3300-3400 3400-3500 3500-3600 3600-3700 3700-3800 3800-3900 3900-4000 4000-4100 4100-4200
Ib
30.0% Category Ib. Wilderness Areas 25.0% 20.0% Full Range Ib 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900 1900-2000 2000-2100 2100-2200 2200-2300 2300-2400 2400-2500 2500-2600 2600-2700 2700-2800 2800-2900 2900-3000 3000-3100 3100-3200 3200-3300 3300-3400 3400-3500 3500-3600 3600-3700 3700-3800 3800-3900 3900-4000 4000-4100 4100-4200
II
30.0% Category II: National Parks 25.0% 20.0% Full Range II 15.0% Best Connected Patch 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600 600-700 700-800 800-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900 1900-2000 2000-2100 2100-2200 2200-2300 2300-2400 2400-2500 2500-2600 2600-2700 2700-2800 2800-2900 2900-3000 3000-3100 3100-3200 3200-3300 3300-3400 3400-3500 3500-3600 3600-3700 3700-3800 3800-3900 3900-4000 4000-4100 4100-4200
VI
Latitudinal Representation 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 40.99-4100 41.00-41.20 41.20-41.40 41.40-41.60 41.60-41.80 41.80-42.00 42.00-42.20 42.20-42.40 42.40-42.60 42.60-42.80 42.80-43.00 43.00-43.20 43.20-43.40 43.40-43.60 43.60-43.80 43.80-44.00 44.00-44.20 44.20-44.40 44.40-44.60 44.60-44.80 44.80-45.00 45.00-45.20 45.20-45.40 45.40-45.60 45.60-45.80 45.80-46.00 46.00-46.20 46.20-46.40 46.40-46.60 46.60-46.80 46.80-47.00 47.00-47.20 47.20-47.40 47.40-47.60 47.60-47.80 47.80-48.00 48.00-48.20 48.20-48.40 48.40-48.60 48.60-48.80 48.80-49.00 Acres Ia Ib II III IV V VI NA Latitude (degrees)
Conclusion: Northern Rockies Case Study A relative wealth of protected areas Not well balanced Some classes connect well across elevation All classes need latitudinal connectivity
Climate Change Adaptation and Wilderness An experimental approach with wilderness as one part One goal: Sustaining ecosystem services by preventing the loss of productive capacity and biodiversity Wilderness will play a critical role Humility, health, high elevation Better connectivity needed for all protected areas