Forecast verification study for McMurdo and Palmer Stations: Preliminary Results Jonas V. Asuma Antarctic Meteorological Research Center University of Wisconsin - Madison 3 rd Antarctic Meteorological Observation, Modeling, and Forecasting Workshop - Madison, WI June 11 th, 28
Motivation
Forecast Sources
McMurdo Forecast Sources Resident SPAWAR Forecasters Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) FORECA provides forecasts for MSN.com Finnish Company Largest in Nordic Countries Data source not listed The Weather Channel (weather.com( weather.com) US company Data source not listed Weather Underground (wunderground.com( wunderground.com) International forecasts NCEP AVN model run
Palmer Forecast Sources SPAWAR Forecasters in Charleston AMPS send out Town forecasts daily Qwikcast.com National Weather Service.5 GFS model for international forecasts METAR s from nearest location (Falkland Islands) Weather Underground International forecasts NCEP AVN model run
Palmer/McMurdo Town Forecast
Method
Method Compared High and Low Temperature forecasts versus the McMurdo/Palmer Station monthly climatologies Temperature Universally forecasted across sources Statistical analysis performed Computed the, Accumulated, Average, Root Mean-Squared (RMSE), Accumulated MSE, Maximum, and Correlation Coefficient Produced scatter plots to visualize error
Results
McMurdo High/Low Temperatures
McMurdo Station Forecasts: High Temperatures MCM High Temp 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Obs vs. MCM High Temp (C) -32-28 -24-2 -16-12 -8-4 4 Obs High Temp Obs vs. MSN High Temp (C) Correlation =.9122547 Correlation =.7462791 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 MSN High Temp -32-28 -24-2 -16-12 -8-4 4 Obs High Temp Wx Channel High Temp 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Obs vs. WX Channel High Temp (C) -32-28 -24-2 -16-12 -8-4 4 Obs High Temp 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Obs vs. Wx Underground High Temp (C) Correlation =.363229 Correlation =.8527524 Wx Underground High Temp -32-28 -24-2 -16-12 -8-4 4 Obs High Temp
McMurdo Station Forecasts: High Temperatures (148 days) Forecast Source Acc. Average Max RMSE MCM 292 1.98 7.12 2.5º Corr. Coef..9122 Wx Und. 54 3.65 12.18 4.43º.8527 Wx 884 5.97 19.71 7.52º.363 Channel MSN Wx 1 6.76 18.97 8.19º.7462
McMurdo Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures Obs vs. MCM Low Temp (C) Obs vs. MSN Low Temp (C) MCM Low Temp 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4-45 -5-4 -35-3 -25-2 -15-1 -5 Obs Low Temp Correlation =.885111 Correlation =.7244981-5 MSN Low Temp -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4-45 -5-4 -35-3 -25-2 -15-1 -5 Obs Low Temp Wx Channel Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Channel Low Temp (C) 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4-45 -5-4 -35-3 -25-2 -15-1 -5 Obs Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground Low Temp (C) Correlation =.4851495 Correlation =.83495 Wx Underground Low Temp 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4-45 -5-4 -35-3 -25-2 -15-1 -5 Obs Low Temp
McMurdo Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures (164 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE MCM 464 2.83 14.2 3.72º Corr. Coef..885 Wx Und. 55 3.8 11.29 3.81º.8341 MSN Wx 1121 6.84 18.61 8.2º.7244 Wx Channel 1268 7.74 26.84 9.47º.4851
Palmer High/Low Temperatures
Palmer Station Forecasts: High Temperatures PAL High Temp Qwikcast High Temp Obs vs. PAL High Temp (C) 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16-18 -2-14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 6. 8. Obs High Temp Obs vs. Qwikcast High Temp (C) Correlation =.714855 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16-18 -2-14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 6. 8. Obs High Temp Correlation =.86663 Wx Undergound High Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground High Temp (C) Correlation =.7248 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16-18 -2-14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 6. 8. Obs High Temp
Palmer Station Forecasts: High Temperatures (178 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE PAL 315 1.77 7.2 2.36º Corr. Coef..867 Wx Und. 347 1.95 2.68 2.88º.724 Qwikcast 48 2.7 13.11 3.49º.7148
Palmer Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures PAL Low Temp 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 -12-14 -16-18 -2-22 Wx Underground Low Temp Obs vs. PAL Low Temp (C) -18. -16. -14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. 8 6 4-2 2-4 -6-1 -8-12 -14-16 -18-2 -22 Obs Low Temp Obs vs. Wx Underground Low Temp (C) -18. -16. -14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. Obs Low Temp Correlation =.762566 Correlation =.69919 Qwikcast Low Temp 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -1-8 -12-14 -16-18 -2-22 Obs vs. Qwikcast Low Temp (C) -18. -16. -14. -12. -1. -8. -6. -4. -2.. 2. 4. Obs Low Temp Correlation =.84359
Palmer Station Forecasts: Low Temperatures (187 days) Forecast Source Sum Average Max RMSE PAL 359 1.92 7.67 2.45º Corr. Coef..7626 Qwikcast 43 2.2 11. 2.77º.843 Wx Und. 394 2.11 2.57 3.11º.699
Conclusions/Future Work
Conclusions SPAWAR forecasters most accurate Accumulated, Average, and Mean Squared Despite forecast hiccups Average and Mean Squared most significant indications of accuracy Correlation Coefficient not the best indicator of forecast accuracy
Future Work Perform similar study but: Use longer dataset preferably an entire year Compare multiple parameters Wind direction/speed, precipitation, cloud cover Compare more forecast sources Other private forecast companies i.e. AccuWeather
Acknowledgements Matt Lazzara,, Linda Keller, AMRC, Chester Clogston,, Ken Edele,, Harry Stockman, and NSF