'ATM'493/693'Applied'Arc/c'Climate'Problems'' Spring'2017'University'of'Alaska'Fairbanks'='Don t'be'leo'out!'' Calling'undergraduates'and'graduate'students'interested' in'understanding'and'par/cipa/ng'in'the'process'of'taking' science'from'research'to'ac/onable'informa/on.'' Learn'the'basics'of'Climate'Science'and'Policy'in'this'project= based'course'that'covers'theory'and'prac/cal'applica/ons.' Important'Informa/on' Prerequisites:'science'fundamentals' ATM'493/693'(3'credits)'' CRN:36359'for'ATM493,'CRN:36360'for' ATM693'' Tues=Thurs'2:00=3:30'PM'in'Room'Murie'105' Project!2:!Wildland! University'of'Alaska'Fairbanks' Fire:!from!science!to! Spring'2017'(Jan.=May.)'' Instructors:!!Dr.$Uma$Bha*,!Atmospheric! applicahons Sciences,!usbha3@alaska.edu!and!Dr.$Kaja$ Brix,!kaja.brix@noaa.gov.!Details!on!web:!! h*p://www.gi.alaska.edu/~bha*/teaching Project!1:!Marine! Mammals:!from! science!to!policy 'Liz'Labunski''/''AP' USDA
Class Outline, Class #1 17 January 2017 1) Intro and class topic mo1va1on 2) Go over class syllabus, schedule 3) Discuss project 4) Today s topics - Geography of Arc1c/Alaska - Observa1ons & Data - Arc1c Climate types
Project outcomes example 1) Problem Statement - Coping with a par1cularly severe winter with prolonged temperature below -30F 2) Context - The temperature is dropping by 2 per hour. We are going in a deep freeze based on the weather forecasts for the next 2 weeks. 3) Analysis - How do we prepare for this cold period? How much fuel? How much food? Addi1onal Clothing? 4) RecommendaCons - If the temperature remains < -30F for the next 2 weeks, then there is not enough fuel in Fairbanks. We have to get fuel companies to increase their stocks. - winter inventory sparse because being liquidated. Need stores to stock more.
Do you know your Alaska Geography? 10 2 16 11 3 19 17 20 8 18 14 1 6 15 7 5 13 12 9 4 1. Island 2. City 3. Wild 4. Island 5. Island 6. River 7. Town 8. Town 9. Water 10. Sea 11. Sea 12. Sea 13. N.Prk 14. Mtns 15. Mtns 16. Mtns 17. N.Prk 18. Town 19. Town 20. Town
Do you know your Alaska Geography? 1. Island 2. City 3. Wild 4. Island 5. Island 6. River 7. Town 8. Town 9. Water 10.Sea 11.Sea 12.Sea 13.N.Prk 14.Mtns 15.Mtns 16.Mtns 17.N.Prk 18.Town 19.Town 20. Town
Do you know your ArcCc Geography? 1) Island: Franz Josef Land 2) Island: New Siberian 13 Islands 3) Bay: Baffin Bay 4) Island: Baffin Island 5) Place: Alaska 6) Sea: Laptev Sea 7) Place: Taymyr Peninsula 5 9 2 6 7 14 4 1 3 10 11 8 12 8) River: Pechora River 9) River: Mackenzie River 10) Island: Novaya Zemlya 11) Island: Svalbard 12) Place: Kola Peninsula 13)Place: Chukotka 14)Island: Ellesmere Island
Do you know your ArcCc Geography? 1) Island: Franz Josef Land 2) Island: New Siberian 13 Islands 3) Bay: Baffin Bay 4) Island: Baffin Island 5) Place: Alaska 6) Sea: Laptev Sea 7) Place: Taymyr Peninsula 5 9 2 6 7 14 4 1 3 10 11 8 12 8) River: Pechora River 9) River: Mackenzie River 10) Island: Novaya Zemlya 11) Island: Svalbard 12) Place: Kola Peninsula 13)Place: Chukotka 14)Island: Ellesmere Island
How is ArcCc Defined? Mul1ple ways, depending on your interests 66.6N treeline July 10C contour What cons1tutes the Arc1c will change as climate changes! Arc1c Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), n.d., h^p://www.amap.no/aboutamap/geocov.htm.
ArcCc tundra is a narrow strip of land along ocean [Walker et al. 2008]
ObservaCons Early Observa1ons 1882-83 First Interna1onal Polar Year (IPY) Norwegian explorer Fridtjof Nansen s ship Fram driced frozen in ice 1893-1896 F. Nansen Fram frozen in ice with lead opening
Soviet ObservaCons North Pole Dricing Sta1ons (1930s-1980s), detailed story at: h^p://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66677 "North Pole" sta1on in summer 1937. WHOI Arc1c Ocean explora1on page
International Arctic Buoy Programme A Model for Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks Arctic Observing Summit March 16, 2016 Ignatius Rigor And many others.
InternaConal ArcCc Buoy Program Sea Ice buoy tracks http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/iabp_ssmi_1979_2010.avi h^p://iabp.apl.washington.edu/overview_history.html
Yearly temperatures for 3 Sources show similar story! Anomaly Reference 1901-2000 [ Source: Bart Verheggen Blog]
Annual Zonal Mean Anomalies 90 a Annual zonal mean anomalies versus 1951 1980 60 30 Latitude 0 30 60 90 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 2020 3 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.8 3 C NASA GISS
Meterological StaCon data varies in length [Bekryaev et al. 2010]
MulC decadal Variability is Large in ArcCc Surface air temperature annual anomalies ( C) Figure 2 2 1 0 1 2 b Trend = 1.36±0.71 C/100 years 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 STOP (a) Zonalaveragetemperatureanomaliesfrom1900to2012arebasedonmeteorologicalstationdataand NOAA sea-surface temperatures. The plot was generated from the NASA [Bekryaev Goddard Institute et al. 2010] for Space Studies (NASA GISS) website, http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp, and details of the data methods are described in Reference 3. (b) Annual surface air temperature anomalies ( C) poleward of 59 N, where dotted Year