Air Quality Trends in National Parks Mike George, National Park Service December 7, 2004
Trend Analysis One of the goals of the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) & NPS criteria monitoring is tracking trends. Have been assessing trends since 1995 as performance measure.
North Cascades NP Olympic NP Mount Rainier NP Glacier NP Theodore Roosevelt NP Trend Legend Lassen Volcanic NP Yellowstone NP Craters of the Moon NM Insufficient data Improving; not statistically significant Improving; statistically significant (p=0.15) Degrading; not statistically significant Degrading; statistically significant (p=0.15) Yosemite NP Pinnacles NM Sequoia NP Great Basin NP Canyonlands NP Rocky Mountain NP Left arrow: Trend for 1988-1997 Right arrow: Trend for 1989-1998 Death Valley NM Mesa Verde NP Grand Canyon NP Joshua Tree NP Saguaro NP Chiricahua NM Chamizal NM Big Bend NP Ozone Trends in Western National Parks 1988-1997 (Left Arrow) v. 1989-1998 (Right Arrow) (based on average of daily maxima, May-Sep)
Olympic North Cascades Craters of the Moon Trends in Annual Nitrate Concentrations (ueq/l) in Precipitation U.S. National Parks, 1989-1998 Glacier Theodore Roosevelt Little Big Horn Yellowstone Isle Royale (Chass) Cape Cod Acadia Indiana Dunes Yosemite Great Basin Rocky Mountain Shenandoah Sequoia Bryce Canyon Mesa Verde Grand Canyon Capulin Volcano Bandelier Buffalo Great Smoky Mts. Organ Pipe Cactus Gila Cliff Dwellings Guadalupe Mts. Big Bend Denali Everglades Statistically significant Degradation (p<= 0.15) Degradation Not statistically significant Statistically significant Improvement (p<= 0.15) Improvement Not statistically significant No Trend or Insufficient Data
North Cascades NP Olympic NP Mount Rainier NP Glacier NP Theodore Roosevelt NP Trend Legend No Trend (slope=0) or Insufficient data Crater Lake NP Yellowstone NP Craters of the Moon NM Badlands NP Improving; not statistically significant Lassen Volcanic NP Improving; statistically significant (p=0.15) Pt. Reyes NS Yosemite NP Pinnacles NM Sequoia NP Bryce Cyn NP Great Basin NP Canyonlands NP Rocky Mountain NP Degrading; not statistically significant Degrading; statistically significant (p=0.15) Death Valley NM Mesa Verde NP Grand Canyon NP Left arrow: Trend for 1988-1997 Right arrow: Trend for 1989-1998 Joshua Tree NP Bandelier NM Petrified Forest NP Saguaro NP Chiricahua NM Guadalupe Mts. NP Big Bend NP Visibility Trends for Dirtiest Days in Western National Parks 1988-1997 (Left Arrow) v. 1989-1998 (Right Arrow) (based on Preliminary Data)
Trend Analysis Analysis from late 1990 s: Ozone increasing in the Intermountain West Nitrate trending toward increasing Visibility declining in a few areas
How Has It Changed? Most Recent Trend Analysis: 1994-2003
Trend Analysis Analysis over sliding ten year period, e.g. 1993-2002 (6 years data minimum, no single baseline year)
Trends in Annual Sulfate Concentrations in Precipitation,1994-2003 Olym pic North Cascades Mount Rainier Glacier Isle Royale Yellowstone Little Bighorn Acadia Craters of the Moon Yos em ite Great Basin Rocky Mountain Indiana Dunes Sequoia Bryce Canyon Grand Canyon Canyonlands Mesa Verde Bandelier Capulin Volcano Shenandoah Great Smoky Mtns Organ Pipe Gila Cliff Buffalo Guadalupe Mtns Denali Big Bend Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Everglades Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Trends in Annual Nitrate Concentrations in Precipitation,1994-2003 Olym pic North Cascades Mount Rainier Glacier Isle Royale Little Bighorn Acadia Craters of the Moon Yellowstone Great Basin Canyonlands Rocky Mountain Indiana Dunes Yosem ite Sequoia Bryce Canyon Mesa Verde Grand Canyon Capulin Volcano Shenandoah Bandelier Buffalo Great Smoky Mtns Organ Pipe Gila Cliff Guadalupe Mtns Denali Big Bend Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Everglades Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Trends in Annual Ammonium Concentrations in Precipitation,1994-2003 Olym pic North Cascades Mount Rainier Glacier Isle Royale Little Bighorn Acadia Craters of the Moon Yellowstone Yos em ite Great Basin Rocky Mountain Indiana Dunes Sequoia Bryce Canyon Grand Canyon Canyonlands Mesa Verde Bandelier Capulin Volcano Buffalo Shenandoah Great Smoky Mtns Organ Pipe Gila Cliff Guadalupe Mtns Denali Big Bend Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Everglades Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Trends in 3-year Average 4th-Highest 8-Hour Ozone, 1994-2003 Olympic North Cascades Mount Rainier Glacier Voyageurs Acadia Yellowstone Theodore Roosevelt Craters of the Moon Cape Cod Lassen Volcanic Yos em ite Pinnacles Sequoia Great Basin Rocky Mountain Canyonlands Death Valley Mesa Verde Grand Canyon Channel Islands Joshua Tree Chiricahua Shenandoah Mammoth Cave Cowpens Great Smoky Mtns Congaree Swamp Saguaro Chamizal Denali Big Bend Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Everglades Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Trends in Deciview on Best Days, 1994-2003 Mount Rainier Glacier Redw ood Crater Lake Yellow stone Acadia Lassen Volcanic Badlands Great Basin Yosemite Rocky Mountain Canyonlands Bryce Canyon Pinnacles Sequoia Great Sand Dunes Grand Canyon Mesa Verde Bandelier Petrified Forest Tonto Gila Cliff Mammoth Cave Great Smoky Mtns Washington Shenandoah Chiricahua Guadalupe Mtns Big Bend Denali Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Trends in Deciview on Worst Days, 1994-2003 Mount Rainier Glacier Redw ood Crater Lake Yellow stone Badlands Acadia Lassen Volcanic Yosemite Great Basin Canyonlands Rocky Mountain Washington Pinnacles Bryce Canyon Sequoia Grand Canyon Mesa Verde Great Sand Dunes Bandelier Mammoth Cave Shenandoah Tonto Petrified Forest Great Smoky Mtns Chiricahua Gila Cliff Guadalupe Mtns Big Bend Denali Decreasing Trend, p<=0.05 Decreasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 Increasing Trend, p<=0.05 Increasing Trend, 0.05<p<=0.15 No Trend Insufficient Data
Air Quality Trends in National Parks, 1994-2003 OLYM NOCA MORA GLAC VOYA ISRO ACAD CRLA REDW LAVO CRMO YELL LIBI BADL CACO INDU PINN CHIS YOSE GRBA CANY BRCA SEQUDEVA GRCA JOTR TONT PEFO MEVE ROMO GRSA CAVO BAND ORPI GICL SAGU CHIR GUM0 BUFF MACA GRSM COWP COSW WASH SHEN Better (p<=0.05) Better (0.05<p<=0.15) Worse (p<=0.05) Worse (0.05<p<=0.15) No Trend CHAM Ozone DENA BIBE Visibility-Good Day Visibility-Bad Day EVER Sulfate Ion Nitrate Ion Ammonium Ion 11/29/04
Trend Analysis More recent analysis Ozone still increasing in the Intermountain West Nitrate increasing Visibility generally improving