The analysis and nowcasting system INCA T. Haiden, A. Kann, K. Stadlbacher, G. Pistotnik, M. Steinheimer, F. Wimmer, C. Wittmann
Contents INCA system overview INCA performance Applications & cooperations Benefit to ALADIN / ALARO / AROME Next steps
INCA system overview Observations ALADIN Trilinear interpolation Observation corrections First guess IDW interpolation Correction field Weighting INCA forecast Weighting INCA nowcast SL advection Corrected field Corrected field = INCA analysis Corrected field =INCA analysis =INCA analysis ANALYSIS Motion vectors FORECAST
Geometry and variables Horizontal Lambert projection 1x1 km 3 domains (AU, SK, CH) INCA-SK INCA-AU INCA-CH Vertical True z-coordinate Shaved elements dz = 100-200 m 30-40 layers Variables θ, q, u, v, w Shaved elements z 2-D analyses and forecasts Precipitation, cloudiness, global radiation 3-D analyses and forecasts Temperature, humidity, wind x,y
Analysis strategy Ψ INCA analysis NWP analysis Observation x,y,z
Analysis strategy z z ALADIN INCA Free atmsophere: NWP model ~ok PBL & mountain atmosphere: corrections x T, Td
Forecast strategy ANALYSIS 1 NOWCASTING Weight ALADIN ECMWF 0 +02 h -15 min +00 h +06 h +31 bis +43 h Lead time +48 h
Analysis examples 16-05-2006 11Z: 2m Temperature
Analysis examples 16-05-2006 11Z: 2m Relative humidity
Analysis examples 16-05-2006 11Z: 2m Relative humidity
Analysis examples 16-05-2006 11Z: Precipitation (mm/15min)
Analysis examples 16-05-2006 11Z: CAPE INCA Convective Analysis Fields: LCL CAPE CIN SHO LI MOCON DT_TRIG THETA_E
INCA performance: temperature T2M verification 20060329-20060426 (all stations) 2 1.75 MAE (K) 1.5 1.25 Column B Column C 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Lead time (h) 8 9 10 11 12
INCA performance: precipitation MAE [mm/15min] MAE der INCA-Prognosen, 20050901-20051012 (3312 Faelle) Lower Austria catchments, 20050901-20051012 (3312 forecasts) 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0 Effect of nowcasting: ~2 hours Row 2 Row 3 Row 4 Row 5 Row 6 Row 7 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 Vorhersagezeit [h] 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12
INCA performance: precipitation Kamp catchment, stratiform period 20060428-20060430 Kamp catchment, 20060428-20060430 (288 forecasts) 0.1 0.09 0.08 Effect of nowcasting: ~4 hours MAE (mm/15min) 0.07 0.06 0.05 Row 1 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Column A Lead time (h)
Applications Operational flood forecasting and warning: Kamp, Danube+tributaries Niederschlagsensembles Kamptal (aufsummiert), 20020811 06:00 UTC 120 Kamp catchment, forecast 2002-08-11 06:00Z 110 100 Precipitation (mm) Niederschlag [mm] 90 80 observation 70 60 50 40 Column BA Column BE Column BC Column BD Column BB forecast 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 Vorhersagezeit [h] Lead time (h)
Applications Web applications: transportation, energy, sports, tourism WSG station
Cooperations Flood forecasting, precipitation analysis - University of Technology, Vienna - University of Agriculture, Vienna - Institute for Meteorology und Geophysics, University of Vienna - Austrian Hydrological Services Nowcasting, data exchange - DWD - SHMU - MeteoSwiss - CHMI (planned)
Benefit to ALADIN / ALARO / AROME (AAA) 1) Use of INCA analyses for verification and model intercomparison 2) Use of INCA forecast as benchmark for AAA 3) Convection nowcasting feedback for AAA developments 4) Gathering experience with use of non-standard obs from various sources 5) Nowcasting tool ready for operational use with any NWP model
1) Verification and model intercomparison ARPEGE fcst ALADIN fcst AROME fcst INCA analysis E. Bazile, EGU2006, Vienna
2) INCA forecast as benchmark for AAA Kamp catchment, stratiform period 20060428-20060430 0.1 0.09 0.08 MAE (mm/15min) 0.07 0.06 0.05 ALADIN+3DVAR, AROME? 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Column A Lead time (h) Row 1
3) Convection nowcasting: feedback for AAA CAPE, CIN, Moisture convergence, visible sat image cell developments
4) Experience with diverse non-standard obs Currently in the INCA system: - SYNOP+TAWES sfc obs - HYDRO sfc obs - RADAR data - SAT data (hires vis, cloud types) Planned or in progress: - D, CH, SK, CZ sfc obs + RADAR - Radiosonde data
5) Tool ready for operations with any NWP model Currently: ALADIN, ECMWF In progress: ALMO Planned: LM (LMK?), ALARO, AROME?
Next steps (2006/2007) Operationalize INCA-SK, INCA-CH Move towards multivariate analysis (use θl,qt) Move towards unified nowcast method (error motion vectors) Improve interpolation (anisotropy, correlations) Include more model physics (sfc energy budget, PBL processes)