Dagoreti Corner, P O Box 10304, 00100 Nairobi, Kenya; Tel: 254-20-3514426 E-mail: director@icpac.net Website: www.icpac.net PRECOFF44 Capacity Building &Training Workshops on Dynamical and Statistical Seasonal Forecasting Dates: 15 th -26 th August 2016 Venue: ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya Summary of the Training IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) together with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) held the forty fourth Capacity Building Training Workshop (CBTW44) on 15 26 August 2016 at ICPAC. The training culminated into a consensus for the October December (OND) seasonal climate outlook that was presented at the Forty Fourth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 44) convened from 30 th - 2 nd September 2016 in Kampala, Uganda. The main objective of this workshop was to build capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) climate scientists from ICPAC member countries on seasonal at both dynamical and statistical forecasting technique. The participants to the training workshop included climate scientists from member countries of ICPAC and the university of Nairobi research fellows seconded to ICPAC that are engaged in various climate activities. Resource persons were drawn from various researches Institutions, Universities, national and international climate centers. This training involved use of the latest forecasting tools. The first week consisted of the dynamical modeling and second week was statistical training. The end of
this training culminated in a consensus GHA climate outlook presented at the GHACOF 44 forum in Kampala. The Training had impacted the skills of the participants especially on modeling and forecasting techniques. Group photo for Participants Presentations by Participants
Table 1: Summary of the Time-table and Resources person DAY/ACTIVITY 15 th Aug 16 th Aug 17 th Aug 18 th Aug 19 th Aug Time Recap(George) Recap[participant] Recap[participant] Recap[participant] 08:30 09:45 Registration/opening ceremony/photo session [ICPAC/KMD/WMO/PREPARED] Introduction to WRFV3.8 [Zewdu/Opijah/Musili] Practical session IV: [Zewdu/Opijah/Mutemi] Forecast Evaluation Metrics/causes of Forecasts Uncertainty (Opijah/Mutemi/Zewdu /) Forecasts Comparisons with other Global Centres Exercise (Opijah/Zewdu/George/Musili) 09.50-10.30 Mapping Training Outcome/Expectations [Zewdu/George/] Practical Session II: Model Installation[George/Musili/ Zewdu/Opijah] (Zewdu/Opijah/Mutemi) Forecasts Evaluation Metrics/causes of Forecasts Uncertainty (Opijah/Mutemi/Zewdu /) Forecasts Comparisons with other Global Centres Exercise (Opijah/Zewdu/George/Musili) 10:30 11:00 TEA BREAK 11:00 12:00 Introduction to weather and seasonal forecasting [Boundary/Initial Data/ lead time] [Zewdu/Mutemi/George] Setting Model Domain(Geogrid process) (Oliver/Opijah/Musili/) (Zewdu/Opijah/Mutemi) Practical session VI: Forecasts Visualisation (Hussein/Zewdu/Musili /Oliver) Preparation of Country Final Repor (ALL) 12:00 13:00 Introduction to Seasonal climate Downscaling [Sabiiti/Opijah/Mohamed] Setting Model Domain(Geogrid process) (Oliver/Opijah/Musili/) (Zewdu/Opijah/Mutemi) Practical session VI: Forecasts Visualisation (Hussein/Zewdu/Musili /Oliver) Preparation of Country Final Repor (ALL) 13:00 14:00 LUNCH BREAK
14:00 15:30 Practical session I: Introduction to Linux and basic commands [Hussein/Kabaka/Misiani] Practical session III:Data Preparation(WPS Process), (Mutemi/George/Mohamm ed/musili) Manipulation/Visualisatio n Tools (NCO/CDO/Ferret, GrADS/NCL)(Hussein/He rbet/kabaka/musili) Practical Session VII: Intra-Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics(Zewdu/ Mutemi/Opijah/] Presentations and Discussion of Forecasts(ALL) 15:30 16:00 TEA BREAK 16:00 17:00 Checking Libraries/Modules (GrADS/NCL/CDO/Ferret[Musili/ Kabaka/Misiani] Initial/Boundary Data Preparation(WPS Process), (Mutemi/George/Musili) Practical session V: Model post processing (Husein/Musili/Zewdu) Practical session VI:Bias CorrectedSuper/Ensemble forecasts from GPC(Zewdu/Mutemi/Opij ah/] Workshop week1 Closin Ceremony[ALL] 17:00 Close Close Close Close Week 2 Statistical Day/Time 22 nd August 23 rd August 24 th August 25 th August 26 th August 8:30 9.00 Registration Re-run forecasting module using forecast global SST s (Galu/Opijah/) prediction with winds/atmospheric indices( Mutemi GHA OND2016 Rainfall forecas Common attributes in all techniq & zones 9.00 9.30 Overview of the GeoCOF GeoCOF Tool and Dataset Installation[Galu/Mohamme/ Kabaka/Oliver] Re-run forecasting module using forecast global SST s (Galu/Opijah/) prediction with winds and atmospheric indices-part1 ( Mutemi GHA OND2016 Rainfall forecas Common attributes in all techniq & zones )
9.30-10:00 Summing up monthly rainfall grids over forecast period(galu /Mohammed/Oliver/Kabaka) Re-run forecasting module using forecast global SST s (Galu/Opijah/) prediction with winds and atmospheric indices-part1 ( Mutemi GHA OND2016 Rainfall forecas Common attributes in all techniq & zones ) 10:00-10.30 TEA BREAK 10:30 11:00 Standardize seasonal rainfall data to create rainfall indices (Galu/Oliver/ Opijah/Mutemi) (Shitote/ Galu/) prediction with winds and atmospheric indices-part1( Mutemi Seminar: Presentation and discuss of country and regional draft OND2016 11:00 12:00 Defining areas of interest in rainfall indices (Mohamed/Galu/Shitote) (Shitote/ Galu /) Input from the SCIPIA group (Mutemi/Opijah/Anyan go] Seminar: Presentation and discuss of country and regional draft OND2016 12:00 13:00 Generate Climatological Zones using Seasonal Rainfall Indices (Galu/Oliver/Shitote/Opijah) (Shitote/ Galu /) Input from the SCIPIA group(mutemi/opijah/ Anyango) Seminar: Presentation and discuss of country and regional draft OND2016 13:00 14:00 LUNCH BREAK 14:00 14:30 Generate Climatological Zones using Seasonal Rainfall Indices (continued) (Galu/Oliver/Mutemi/Opijah) The statistical climate model used in seasonal forecasting/verification of the SST data (Sagero/Kombo/Oloo) (Shitote/Galu/) Input from the SCIPIA group(mutemi/opijah/ Anyango) Consensus GHAOND2016 rainfa forecast and fact-fit conversion
14:30 15:30 Improving Seasonal Forecast of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Western Indian Ocean [Manyilizu/Bemiasa] Mean Thermocline Depth in the West Indian Ocean [Manyilizu /Halo]. (Shitote/ Galu/) forecasts compared with Dynamical (George/Zewdu) Consensus GHAOND2016 rainfa forecast and fact-fit conversion 15:30 16:00 COFFE BREAK 16:00 17:00 Validation of high resolution SST for integration into ocean forecasting models [Rawat/Nicolas/] Synthesis of teleconnection between Indian and Pacific Oceans [Oloo/Sagero/Kombo] Statistical Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone (TCs) maximum intensity during December to March (DM) over the Southwestern Indian Ocean ( Kombo/Ngwali) (Shitote/Galu/) Input from the UK Met office (Andrew Coleman) Documentation and preparation f GHACOF44 materials Closing Ceremony (ICPAC) 17.00 Close Close Close Close Close