The Arctic 2030 Project: Feasibility and Reliability of Shipping on the Northern Sea Route and Modeling of an Arctic Marine Transportation & Logistics System 3-rd. Industry Seminar: Sea-Ice & Operational Conditions for Ships on the NSR Sea Ice Characteristics and Operational Conditions for Ships Working in the Eastern Zone of the NSR Mr. Sergey Balmasov, Head of CHNL s NSR Information Office (sergey@chnl.no) Monday 30 May, 2016, Busan, South-Korea
Eastern NSR zone
Eastern NSR zone Traffic in Kara sea from 1st January 2016 until 10 May approx. 1-st vessel going East is Sevmorput.
Eastern NSR zone
Stage of development Thickness (cm) Nilash, ice rind < 10 Young ice 10-30 Grey ice 10-15 Grey/white ice 15-30 First-year ice 30-200 Thin first-year ice 30-70 Thin first-year ice first stage 30-50 Thin first-year ice second stage 50-70 Medium first year ice 70-120 Thick first year ice >120 Old ice East-Siberian Sea Chukchi Sea Laptev Sea
Eastern zone of the NSR Laptev Sea The southern coast of the sea is shallow; vessels pass rather far off the shore. Ice conditions in western part of the Laptev Sea derived from Taimyr and Yanskiy ice massifs. Clouds and often fogs, icing happen in September-October. High seas with big waves could occur in summer in ice free water. Coastal navigation is dangerous, because sea-level near the shore varies and depth changes to 1-3 m. Winter is very cold. Fogs in summer take 17-21 days in a month, in July and in August. The first formation of young ice can start in the beginning of September.
Eastern zone of the NSR Laptev Sea The Laptev Sea can be divided to 2 regions with specific ice conditions: 1 region from Boris Vilkitskiy Strait to meridian 125 E it is western part of the sea where heavy ice of Taimyr ice massif located; 2 region from meridian 125 E to the Novosibirskiy Islands here is ice of Yanskiy ice massif. The Laptev Sea has a lot of fast ice. Fast ice edge matches together with water-depth line 15-20 m. Width of fast ice may come to 250 miles. Under influence of offshore wind drifting ice goes from fast ice and forms flaw polynyas ice-free water covered with nilash. Drifting ice is large fields of consolidated pack ice with concentration of 10 points. High ice pressure may occur at fast ice edge.
Eastern zone of the NSR East Siberian sea One of the shallowest of Arctic seas, + the same challenges as other artic seas: Ice, Fogs, Clouded sky and Icing Shallow regions may get significant changes of sea depth caused by storm surge. It relates to the Sannikov and the Dmitry Laptev Straits. Ice formation depends on warming-up degree, presence of old ice and intensity of temperature fall. In the northern part of the sea it starts in the end of August-beginning of September. To 10 th October 10-15 cm, 20 th 20-25 cm, in the mid of November 50-60 cm. Fast ice is formed along the coast and around islands. Fast ice is highly developed in March and April. In the western part of the sea the width of fast ice is 200-250 miles. Maximum thickness is in May. Long-term annual average of fast ice in the west 200-210 cm, in the east 160-180 cm. To the north from the Novosibirskiy Islands flaw polynya is formed area of young ice, its width sometimes comes to 50-100 miles.
Eastern zone of the NSR East Siberian sea Melting starts near Pevek port in the beginning of May and in June melting is in the sea. Ice distribution in the sea caused by location of Novosibirskiy and Ayonskiy ice massifs. Novosibirskiy ice massif formed of fast ice in the western part of the sea when navigation starts. In the first half of navigation period it significantly obstructs passage through the Sannikova strait. Novosibirskiy ice massif is usually attached to Ayonskiy ice massif and it can be enlarged with heavier ice of Ayonskiy massif when north-eastern winds occur. Novosibirskiy massif is collapsed to the mid of September. Eastern part of the sea is the most favorable part of the NSR. Ayonskiy massif is a spur of oceanic ice massif. Depending on prevailing winds the massif can be located in the east, west or in the middle.
Eastern zone of the NSR East Siberian sea Eastern location: the massif is in the eastern part of the sea and joined with Wrangel ice massif that causes unfavorable conditions for navigation in areas from the Long Strait to Ayon Island. Central location: unfavorable conditions from Shelagskiy Cape to the Medvezhy Islands. Western location: the massif is joined with Novosibirskiy massif and causes unfavorable conditions for navigation from the Medvezhy Islands to Lopatka Peninsula. Because of big thickness and law fracturing massif creates heavy going bridges. In favorable years when offshore wind blows, Ayonskiy massif goes from the coast and nearshore route becomes ice-free. Bridges of concentrated ice are created when northern wind blows. Ranges of stamukhas occur at a depth of 10-15 m on shallows. Because of it, ice cannot go closer to the shore and vessels with draught up to 7 m can go in ice-free water along the shore.
Eastern zone of the NSR Chukchi sea The sea is placed further south than other Arctic seas. It is considered that the Long Strait is the most difficult part of the NSR because of hydrometeorological regime: it takes some time while fast ice is formed it is destroyed frequently with drifting ice and involved in its stream. Then, fast ice is formed again and as a result it has hummocking of 3-4 point, sometimes 5 points. To the end of winter fast ice comes to width of 2-10 miles. It is heavy-going. Fast ice edge is along 20th water-depth line. Ice fracturing is intensive in spring and summer. The highest speed of ice drifting is in the Long Strait, especially when north-western wind blows. In this region ice pressure is very dangerous, it is caused by wind and stream. There is strong compacting (2-3 points) in winter because of onshore winds. The choice of a route in the Long Strait depends on location of Wrangel ice massif.
Example of long-term ice forecast for NSR specific area Developed by AARI Long-term forecast of terms of fast ice breaking and clearance of water area around Dickson Island in summer 2016
1. Atmosphere processes and meteorological conditions near Taymyr coast from October 2015 till May 2016 Cold period around Dickson Island started in 28 September, when stable transition of average daily air temperature from positive to negative values was fixed. Cold period started 3 days later than average. Monthly averaged meteorological parameters for Dickson Island during the cold period from October 2015 till 12 May 2016 are presented in Table 1.
1. Atmosphere processes and meteorological conditions near Taymyr coast from October 2015 till May 2016 Warm air masses prevailed during all months of cold period of winter 2015/16, excepting October, when background temperature was near the multiyear average. Changes of monthly averaged anomalies of air temperature during October 2015 April 2016 is shown in Figure 1.
February was the warmest month, and October - coldest. Average monthly positive anomaly of air temperature fixed in February was 9.6 C, in October it was 0.6 C. Generalizing results of monitoring of atmosphere processes and meteorological conditions around Dikson Island, it was concluded that: air temperature background in this area of the Kara Sea during the current hydrological year in average for October April saved higher than normal; therewith tendency to its dramatic increase was noted. Figure 2 presents interannual variability of average values of air temperature anomalies during the cold period from October till April. Fig. 2 - Interannual variability of average values of air temperature anomalies during the cold period from October till April in the area around Dickson Island Average air temperature anomaly was +5,7 С in the current hydrological year, that is very close to its value in cold period of October 2011 April 2012. All peculiarities mentioned above had an impact on growth of ice thickness and formation of ice cover.
2. Monitoring of formation of ice cover and thickness of fast ice near the north-western Taymyr coast during cold season 2015/16 Terms of autumn ice phases were close to average multiyear norm in the area of Dickson Island and in water area adjacent to it. Terms of ice phases on polar stations of Dickson region of the Kara Sea in autumn 2015 (within brackets deviance from a norm, days) are shown in Table 2. Table 2 - Terms of ice phases on polar stations of Dickson region of the Kara Sea in autumn 2015 (within brackets deviance from a norm, days).
Therefore, appearance and onset of fast ice in October November in the Arctic shallow waters happened approximately in average terms, corresponding to average temperature conditions. Positive air temperature anomalies were accompanied by slow ice formation and negative thickness anomalies. Fast ice area in the Kara Sea was firmly lower than average multiyear norm. Fast ice, as observable spatial formation, appeared in October inshore the river Pyasina. In November fast ice dominated in the Ob -Yenisey area; in December fast ice covered entire area of the Nordensheld archipelago. In January fast ice formed continuous band along the entire north-western Taymyr coast, and at the end of February, first time for the hydrological season, fast ice totally covered the Vilkitskiy Strait. In accordance with predominance of warm winter in December February, fast ice thickness in Dickson area was significantly less than average (Figure 4). Thickness of fast ice near Dickson Island was steadily lower than normal during the cold season: thickness anomaly at the end of November was 9 cm, at the end of December 23 cm, at the end of January and February 22 cm, at the end of March 17 cm, at the end of April 24 cm. In the first ten-day period of May ice thickness was 131 cm (multiyear norm is 156 cm).
3. Long-term meteorological forecast. Thickness of fast ice near Dickson Island was steadily lower than normal during the cold season: thickness anomaly at the end of November was 9 cm, at the end of December 23 cm, at the end of January and February 22 cm, at the end of March 17 cm, at the end of April 24 cm. In the first ten-day period of May ice thickness was 131 cm (multiyear norm is 156 cm). Forecasted temperature and wind parameters in the area of Dickson Island in May, June and July 2016 are presented in Table 3. Consequently, air fluxes of alternate directions and air temperature about (in May)/above (in June and July) a norm are expected during the forecasted period.
4. Long-term forecast of terms of fast ice breaking and clearance of water area around Dickson Island in summer 2016 Main peculiarities of development of natural processes during cold season 2015/16 for the water area near the north-western Taymyr were established as a result of analysis: - prevalence of zonal and eastern forms of atmosphere circulation with, predominantly, south-western directions; - air temperature during the cold season was above the average multiyear values, particularly in January April; - in consequence of soft winter the ice thickness was significantly below normal, and as for the first tenday period of May it was 131 cm near Dickson Island (norm is 156 cm) and anomaly was -25 cm; - first-year thick ice prevailed on the water area in the first half of May; as well as significant amount of first-year medium ice was fixed; - development of fast ice in the Kara Sea is below normal; sea edge of fast ice is in a southern position; flaw polynyas are covered by young ice. Initial data allow to manage a long-term forecast of summer ice phases (terms of fast ice breaking and clearance of ice) on the water area of the Kara Sea, adjacent to Dickson Island.
4. Long-term forecast of terms of fast ice breaking and clearance of water area around Dickson Island in summer 2016 1. Thickness of fast ice in the area around polar station Dickson Island at the end of cold season (May) is expected to be about 130-135 cm, which is approximately 25 cm below normal. 2. Intensive processes of melting and breaking of ice cover near the north-western Taymyr coast are expected. Particularly, fast ice breaking near the polar station Dickson Island is forecasted at 8 July, i.e. about 10 days earlier than average multiyear norm (norm is 18 July). 3. Thin ice, intensive beginning of melting and early breaking of fast ice will be accompanied by early terms of sea clearance of ice. Complete water area clearance of ice near polar station Dickson Island is forecasted about 15 July, i.e. approximately 12 days earlier than normal (norm is 27 July). Therefore, according to the forecast, development of ice conditions in summer 2016 in the area of Dickson Island near the north-western Taymyr coast will have favorable, easy character.
Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016 The predictive bulletin includes general information about the expected ice conditions in the Russian Arctic seas in the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016. For an assessment of intensity of the expected development of ice conditions, the forecast is compared to mean annual values (the norm calculated from 1970 for 2010).
Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016 Kara Sea The area of the Novozemelsky ice massif in June-August is expected 10-14% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): the third decade of June 65%, norm of 75%; the third decade of July 20%, norm of 34%; the first decade of August 5%, norm of 18%. In the first half of navigation in southwest part of the Kara Sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Severozemelsky ice massif in June-August is expected 14-18% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July 50%, norm of 68%; August 25%, norm of 39%. In the first half of navigation in northeast part of the Kara Sea the average type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. Breaking of fast ice near Vilkitsky Strait is expected for 10 days before mean annual term on July 20, norm on July 30.
Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016 Laptev Sea The area of the Taimyr ice massif in July-August is expected 11% less than average longterm values (fig. 1): July 60%, norm of 71%; August 32%, norm of 43%. In the first half of navigation in the western part of the Laptev sea the average type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Yansky ice massif in July-August is expected 11-17% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July 60%, norm of 77%; August 5%, norm of 16%. In the first half of navigation in east part of the Laptev sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. Breaking of fast ice along the coast in the western part of the sea is expected for 10 days before average long-term terms on July 10, norm on July 17, in east part of the sea for 10 days before average long-term terms on July 5, norm on July 15.
Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016 East Siberian Sea The area of the Novosibirsk ice massif in July-August is expected 0-10% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July 81%, norm of 81%, August 23%, norm of 33%. In the first half of navigation in the western part of the sea the average type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. The area of the Ayonsky ice massif in July-August is expected 0-10% less than average long-term values (fig. 1): July 87%, norm of 87%, August 56%, norm of 66%. In the first half of navigation in east part of the sea the average type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected. Breaking of fast ice in a throat of Chaun Bay (on a site Aion-Valkarkay) is expected for 5 days before average long-term value on June 27, norm on July 2.
Long-term ice forecasts for the Arctic seas on the first half of navigation (June-August), 2016 Chukchi Sea The area of the Vrangelevsky ice massif in July-August is expected 7-15% less than average long-term values: July 21% norm of 36%; August 5%, norm of 12% (fig. 1). Breaking of fast ice on a coastal site the cape Yakan the cape Vankar is expected for 10 days of earlier average long-term terms on July 1, norm on July 10. In the first half of navigation in southwest part of the sea the easy type of ice conditions (fig. 2) is expected.
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