PLUTO 2040 The Transport Response to the National Planning Framework Dr. Aoife O Grady Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport Dublin Economics Workshop 15 th September 2018
The Story of Pluto National Planning Framework Land Use and Transport Planning integrally linked What are the Transport Needs of the Future Irish Population? Can good Transport Planning enable and reinforce the Project Ireland objectives? PLUTO Planning Land Use and Transport Outlook 2040
PLUTO 2040 Initiated Oct 2017 following consultation launch for draft NPF Update of SFILT (2015) w/ population & economic projections > profiles location of future transport demand Steering Group of DTTAS, NTA, TII & DHPLG Senior Planners
Work Streams Background and context analysis National Planning Framework Historic Transport Investment Climate Change Brexit Technology Current network analysis Steady State Maintenance Investment Priorities International Comparisons Climate Adaptation Future network analysis Compact Growth Connectivity Rural Priorities Strategic Links Implementation Sequencing Governance Systems
Background and Context Analysis National Planning Framework, and its projections around population and settlement patterns must be at the heart of PLUTO PLUTO must be resilient to the threats posed by climate change and Brexit, & flexible to accommodate opportunities afforded by new tech Need to be realistic about the level of resourcing for transport sector 1.36% of GNI* as long run average but NDP levels well below this
Current Network Analysis Average annual cost of maintenance of network is 1.6bn, of which 1.4bn is met by the Department. Recent underinvestment in Ireland s land transport network has caused a significant decline in our global transport infrastructure ranking In case of downturn, need prioritise key strategic elements of the network for maintenance. Future steady state costs should also include an amount to adapt the transport network to be more resilient to climate impacts
Current Network Analysis Land Transport Investment as % of GDP 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Portugal Malta Iceland Ireland Belgium Italy Poland Netherlands Germany Austria Spain New Zealand Sweden WEC France Finland Denmark United Kingdom Luxembourg Turkey Greece Lithuania Czech Republic Slovenia Norway Croatia CEEC Estonia Switzerland Latvia Albania Hungary Slovak Republic Serbia Romania % of GDP
Transport 2040 Priorities Transport 2040 Priorities 1. A land transport network which delivers a high level of service for the population of Ireland 2. Enabling the delivery of the National Planning Framework objectives regarding where people live and work 3. Maximising the sector s contribution to Ireland s economic competitiveness 4. Realising a low-carbon, sustainable transport system
Future Network Analysis Four pillars Urban Centres Regional Connectivity Rural Accessibility International Connectivity What are the appropriate levels of service for the Irish transport network? Safety Journey times Average speeds Reliability What pressures are likely to develop between now and 2040? Which likely network constraints should be identified as national priorities?:
Future Network Analysis National Primary Road Network (TII models) 2017 Existing 2040 Do Nothing 2040 w/ NDP Schemes
Future Network Analysis National Secondary Road Network (TII models) 2017 Existing 2040 Do Nothing 2040 w/ndp Schemes
PLUTO Outputs Identification of short and long-term capacity constraints & requirements on transport network National Prioritisation based on PLUTO priorities, wider policy issues (Brexit, climate change) Implementation and Governance Considerations Consideration of funding potential and options infrastructure, demand management, modal shift
Implementation Sequencing of investment Governance Transport is a driver of spatial patterns as well as an enabler The wrong kind of investment generates sprawl rather than compact growth Roles, responsibilities and coordination of local, regional and central Government Systems must be fit for purpose strategic fit assessment; value for money & efficient project delivery
Thank You! Any Questions? aoifeogrady@dttas.gov.ie