Daily Operations Briefing Monday, September 5, 2016 8:30 a.m. EDT
Significant Activity - Sept 3-5 Significant Events: None Tropical Activity: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine, Disturbance 1 Low (10%) Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Newton, Disturbance 1 Low (10%) Central Pacific Tropical Storm Lester, Disturbance 1 Low (10%) Western Pacific No significant activity threatening U.S. interests Significant Weather: Severe thunderstorms & flash flooding Northern Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley Rain/Thunderstorms Northern Intermountain, Plains, Southwest and Southern Rockies, Central/Southern Mississippi valleys, and Great Lakes to Southeast Rain/snow Northern Rockies Red Flag Warnings CA & CO Elevated Fire Weather None Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. Earthquake Activity: None Declaration Activity: No Significant Activity
Tropical Outlook Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine (Advisory #30a as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 295 miles SE of the eastern tip of Long Island, NY Moving ENE at 3 mph Max sustained winds 70 mph Turn toward the NE and N with a decrease in forward speed expected later today Remain at hurricane strength for next day or so Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Fenwick Island to Sagamore Beach, Delaware Bay, Block island, Martha s Vineyard & Nantucket Impacts FL power outages remain moderate, but improving (19K customers down from 47K customers last 24 hrs) Minimal power outages (<1%) remain in all other impacted States Florida 1 confirmed fatality; 1 unconfirmed injury Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for Pasco County All schools will re-open on September 6, except for Leon and Wakulla counties 8 shelters open with 43 occupants (ARC midnight shelter count 7:05 am EDT September 5) North Carolina 1 confirmed fatality; 3 injuries
Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Response Region I: State/Local Response CT EOC at Level II (Partial Activation) MA EOC at Level II (Partial Activation) RI EOC at Partial Activation Region II: State/Local Response NJ EOC at Level II (Partial Activation); Governor declared a State of Emergency for 3 counties NY State EOC at Level III (Partial Activation) 1 shelter open with 1 occupant (ARC midnight shelter count 7:05 am EDT September 5) NY City EOC at Level III (Partial Activation) Region III: State/Local Response VA EOC at Level II (Partial Activation); Governor declared a state of emergency MD EOC at Level III (Partial Activation); Governor declared a state of emergency for 12 counties DE EOC at Level III (Partial Activation); Governor lifted the state of emergency Region IV: State/Local Response FL EOC at Level I (Full Activation); Governor declared a state of emergency NC EOC at Normal Operations; Governor lifted state of emergency SC EOC at Normal Operations GA EOC at Normal Operations; Governor lifted state of emergency
Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Response Federal Response FEMA Region I RRCC not activating FEMA Region II RRCC activated to Level III (Dayshift); RWC returned to Watch/Steady State LNOs deployed to NY and NJ EOCs FEMA Region III RRCC de-activated; RWC at Enhanced Watch (24/7) IMAT demobilizing from VA EOC; will be FMC on September 7 LNOs deployed to MD and VA EOCs FEMA Region IV RRCC not activated; RWC at Watch/Steady State LNOs deployed to FL EOC IMAT demobilizing from FL; will return to Region today FEMA HQ NWC returned to Watch/Steady State ISB and MERS personnel demobilizing
Tropical Outlook - Atlantic http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located over eastern Caribbean Moving W Significant development appears unlikely Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%)
Tropical Outlook East Pacific Tropical Storm Newton (Advisory #3a as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located 140 miles WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico Moving NNW at 10 mph Maximum sustained winds 45 mph NW or NNW motion with an increase in forward speed expected Tuesday morning Tropical storm force winds extend 90 miles
Tropical Outlook East Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 1,800 miles WSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula Moving E Development, if any, will be slow to occur Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (30%)
Tropical Outlook - Central Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 700 miles S of Honolulu Moving E Conditions are not favorable for this disturbance to strengthen Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 10%)
Tropical Storm Lester Tropical Storm Lester (Advisory #47 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located 545 miles NNW of Honolulu, HI Moving NW at 18 mph Motion expected to continue through Monday Maximum sustained winds 45 mph; little change in intensity forecast through Tuesday Tropical-Storm-Force Winds extend outward 130 miles State/Local Response HI EOC returned to Normal Operations All county EOCs at Normal Operations FEMA Region IX RWC at Enhanced Watch (24/7); RRCC not activated IMAT 1 demobilizing from HI LNOs demobilizing from HI FEMA HQ ISB and MERS personnel demobilizing US&R IST WHITE personnel released
National Weather Forecast http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/national_forecast/natfcst.php Today Tomorrow
Active Watches & Warnings http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/largemap.php
Precipitation Forecast - Days 1-3 Day 1 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-3.shtml Day 2 Day 3
Severe Weather Outlook - Days 1-3 Day 1 Day 2 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Day 3
Fire Weather Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html Day 1 Day 2
6-10 Day Outlooks http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictio ns/610day/610temp.new.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictio ns/610day/610prcp.new.gif 6-10 Day Temperature Probability 6-10 Day Precipitation Probability
Space Weather Past 24 Hours Current Next 24 Hours Space Weather Activity Minor None None Geomagnetic Storms G1 None None Solar Radiation Storms None None None Radio Blackouts None None None HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity HF Map http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/ space-weather-enthusiasts http://spaceweather.com/
Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region IV State / Location Florida Event Tropical Cyclone Hermine August 30, 2016 - ongoing IA/PA Number of Counties Start - End Requested Complete IA 2 0 9/6 TBD PA 2 0 9/7 TBD X Spokane Tribe Cayuse Mountain Wildfire August 21, 2016 and continuing IA 0 0 Cancelled PA 0 0 Cancelled
Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 1 Date Requested 0 0 MD DR Severe Storms and Flooding August 12, 2016
Open Field Offices as of September 5, 2016
FEMA Readiness - Deployable Teams & Assets Resource Status Total FMC Available Partially Available Not Available Detailed, Deployed, Activated FCO 35 6 17% 0 0 29 FDRC 10 1 10% 0 3 6 Comments US&R 28 27 96% 1 0 0 NJ-TF1: Partially Mission Capable National IMAT Regional IMAT 3 2 67% 0 0 1 East 2 to LA (DR-4277) 13 6 46% 2 0 5 MERS 18 14 78% 0 0 4 Region IV returned from FL Deployed: Region II to LA (DR-4277); select staff returning to Region Region III demobilizing from VA (Hermine); FMC September 7 Region V to WI (DR-4276) Region VI Team 2 to LA (DR-4277) Region VIII to LA (DR-4277) Region IX Team-1 demobilizing from HI Region X to LA (DR-4277) Assets are supporting: PR (Zika UCG) LA (DR-4277) HI (Madeline) demobilizing from HI VA (Hermine) Rating Criterion OFDC Readiness: FCO Green Yellow Red Type 1 3+ 2 1 Type 2 4+ 3 2 Type 3 4+ 3 2 FDRC 3 2 1 Green = Available / FMC Yellow = Available / PMC Red = Out-of-Service Blue = Assigned / Deployed Green: 3 available Yellow: 1-2 available Red: 0 avail (Individual N-IMAT red if 50% of Section Chiefs and / or Team Leader is unavailable for deployment.) Green: >6 teams available Yellow: 4-6 teams available Red: < 4 teams available R-IMAT also red if TL Ops / Log Chief is unavailable & has no qualified replacement Green = >66% available Yellow = 33% to 66% available Red = <33% available
FEMA Readiness - National & Regional Teams Resource Status Total FMC Available Partially Available Not Available Status Comments Rating Criteria NWC 5 5 100% 0 0 Not Activated Returned to Watch/Steady State on 9/4 NRCC 2 2 100% 0 0 Not Activated HLT 1 1 100% 0 0 Activated DEST Not Activated Green = FMC Yellow = PMC Red = NMC RRCCs 10 9 90% 0 1 Activated RWCs/MOCs 10 8 80% 0 2 Activated Region II at Level III (Dayshift) Region III de-activated Region II returned to Watch/Steady State Region III at Enhanced Watch, 24/7 Region IV returned to Watch/Steady State Region IX at Enhanced Watch, 24/7