Nonlinear State Estimation Methods Overview and Application to PET Polymerization

Similar documents
Simultaneous Estimation of the Heat Transfer Coefficient and of the Heat of Reaction in Semi-Batch Processes

LECTURE # - NEURAL COMPUTATION, Feb 04, Linear Regression. x 1 θ 1 output... θ M x M. Assumes a functional form

L20: MLPs, RBFs and SPR Bayes discriminants and MLPs The role of MLP hidden units Bayes discriminants and RBFs Comparison between MLPs and RBFs

Riccati difference equations to non linear extended Kalman filter constraints

Stochastic Analogues to Deterministic Optimizers

Nonlinear State Estimation! Particle, Sigma-Points Filters!

ON MODEL SELECTION FOR STATE ESTIMATION FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS. Robert Bos,1 Xavier Bombois Paul M. J. Van den Hof

Goodwin, Graebe, Salgado, Prentice Hall Chapter 11. Chapter 11. Dealing with Constraints

Model-based Control and Optimization with Imperfect Models Weihua Gao, Simon Wenzel, Sergio Lucia, Sankaranarayanan Subramanian, Sebastian Engell

CHAPTER 4 STATE FEEDBACK AND OUTPUT FEEDBACK CONTROLLERS

DATA ASSIMILATION FOR FLOOD FORECASTING

A Comparison of Particle Filters for Personal Positioning

State Space and Hidden Markov Models

2 Introduction of Discrete-Time Systems

Linear Models for Regression

1 Kernel methods & optimization

Cross Directional Control

Kalman Filter. Predict: Update: x k k 1 = F k x k 1 k 1 + B k u k P k k 1 = F k P k 1 k 1 F T k + Q

A Study of Covariances within Basic and Extended Kalman Filters

Online monitoring of MPC disturbance models using closed-loop data

Why do we care? Measurements. Handling uncertainty over time: predicting, estimating, recognizing, learning. Dealing with time

Nonlinear Stochastic Modeling and State Estimation of Weakly Observable Systems: Application to Industrial Polymerization Processes

Cramér-Rao Bounds for Estimation of Linear System Noise Covariances

The Kalman Filter ImPr Talk

Signals and Spectra - Review

Unconstrained Multivariate Optimization

On a Data Assimilation Method coupling Kalman Filtering, MCRE Concept and PGD Model Reduction for Real-Time Updating of Structural Mechanics Model

Condensed Table of Contents for Introduction to Stochastic Search and Optimization: Estimation, Simulation, and Control by J. C.

Mobile Robot Localization

State Estimation using Moving Horizon Estimation and Particle Filtering

MILLING EXAMPLE. Agenda

Bayes Filter Reminder. Kalman Filter Localization. Properties of Gaussians. Gaussians. Prediction. Correction. σ 2. Univariate. 1 2πσ e.

Nonlinear Observers. Jaime A. Moreno. Eléctrica y Computación Instituto de Ingeniería Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

Why do we care? Examples. Bayes Rule. What room am I in? Handling uncertainty over time: predicting, estimating, recognizing, learning

Adaptive ensemble Kalman filtering of nonlinear systems. Tyrus Berry and Timothy Sauer George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030

Semi-empirical Process Modelling with Integration of Commercial Modelling Tools

Constrained State Estimation Using the Unscented Kalman Filter

6.435, System Identification

Event-Driven Control as an Opportunity in the Multidisciplinary Development of Embedded Controllers 1

RELATIVE NAVIGATION FOR SATELLITES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY USING ANGLES-ONLY OBSERVATIONS

Bayesian Inference of Noise Levels in Regression

FRTN 15 Predictive Control

Stochastic Collocation Methods for Polynomial Chaos: Analysis and Applications

v are uncorrelated, zero-mean, white

Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava Institute of Information Engineering, Automation, and Mathematics PROCEEDINGS

ON CONVERGENCE PROPERTIES OF MESSAGE-PASSING ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS. Justin Dauwels

Multiple Bits Distributed Moving Horizon State Estimation for Wireless Sensor Networks. Ji an Luo

Miscellaneous. Regarding reading materials. Again, ask questions (if you have) and ask them earlier

Nonlinear Parameter Estimation for State-Space ARCH Models with Missing Observations

1 Kalman Filter Introduction

ECE7850 Lecture 8. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control: Theoretical Aspects

Nonlinear Identification of Backlash in Robot Transmissions

CSC2515 Winter 2015 Introduction to Machine Learning. Lecture 2: Linear regression

Efficient Moving Horizon Estimation of DAE Systems. John D. Hedengren Thomas F. Edgar The University of Texas at Austin TWMCC Feb 7, 2005

How to simulate in Simulink: DAE, DAE-EKF, MPC & MHE

Day 3 Lecture 3. Optimizing deep networks

Probabilistic Graphical Models

Maximum Likelihood Modeling Of Orbits Of Nonlinear ODEs

IPAM Summer School Optimization methods for machine learning. Jorge Nocedal

Least Squares. Ken Kreutz-Delgado (Nuno Vasconcelos) ECE 175A Winter UCSD

Industrial Model Predictive Control

Introduction to Geometry Optimization. Computational Chemistry lab 2009

State Observers and the Kalman filter

Robust Adaptive Estimators for Nonlinear Systems

New Recursive-Least-Squares Algorithms for Nonlinear Active Control of Sound and Vibration Using Neural Networks

Kalman-Filter-Based Time-Varying Parameter Estimation via Retrospective Optimization of the Process Noise Covariance

Basic Concepts in Data Reconciliation. Chapter 6: Steady-State Data Reconciliation with Model Uncertainties

RELAY CONTROL WITH PARALLEL COMPENSATOR FOR NONMINIMUM PHASE PLANTS. Ryszard Gessing

Finite-Horizon Statistics for Markov chains

ECONOMETRIC METHODS II: TIME SERIES LECTURE NOTES ON THE KALMAN FILTER. The Kalman Filter. We will be concerned with state space systems of the form

Hammerstein System Identification by a Semi-Parametric Method

EECE Adaptive Control

A comparison of estimation accuracy by the use of KF, EKF & UKF filters

Design of Extended Kalman Filters for High Performance Position Control of Electrical Drives

Design of Norm-Optimal Iterative Learning Controllers: The Effect of an Iteration-Domain Kalman Filter for Disturbance Estimation

Nonlinear Model Predictive Control Tools (NMPC Tools)

Five Formulations of Extended Kalman Filter: Which is the best for D-RTO?

Linear MIMO model identification using an extended Kalman filter

Simultaneous state and input estimation of non-linear process with unknown inputs using particle swarm optimization particle filter (PSO-PF) algorithm

Application of Classical and Output-Only Modal Analysis to a Laser Cutting Machine

Gaussian Filtering Strategies for Nonlinear Systems

Time Series Analysis

Regression with Input-Dependent Noise: A Bayesian Treatment

ECS171: Machine Learning

Advanced Methods for Fault Detection

Statistical Geometry Processing Winter Semester 2011/2012

Rotational Motion Control Design for Cart-Pendulum System with Lebesgue Sampling

SIMULATION OF TURNING RATES IN TRAFFIC SYSTEMS

Ch6-Normalized Least Mean-Square Adaptive Filtering

Optimal control and estimation

Final Exam Solutions

JUSTIFICATION OF INPUT AND OUTPUT CONSTRAINTS INCORPORATION INTO PREDICTIVE CONTROL DESIGN

Gear Health Monitoring and Prognosis

State-space Model. Eduardo Rossi University of Pavia. November Rossi State-space Model Fin. Econometrics / 53

Chapter 6. Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models

Modeling and Control Overview

Optimizing Economic Performance using Model Predictive Control

Variable Learning Rate LMS Based Linear Adaptive Inverse Control *

PROBLEMS In each of Problems 1 through 12:

The Kernel Trick, Gram Matrices, and Feature Extraction. CS6787 Lecture 4 Fall 2017

Transcription:

epartment of Biochemical and Chemical Engineering Process ynamics Group () onlinear State Estimation Methods Overview and Polymerization Paul Appelhaus Ralf Gesthuisen Stefan Krämer Sebastian Engell The first author is now CEO of Appelhaus Miniplants Lindewerra the second and the third authors are with IEOS Köln Germany PSE Summer School Salvador da Bahia 20 Process ynamics

Outline Introduction Approaches to nonlinear state estimation polycondensation Multirate estimation Conclusions onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Introduction Important product qualities are not measureable online but they are needed for control purposes. Measurements are often available at different sampling intervals. Analytic measurements cause time delays. State estimation can provide additional online information. umerous approaches are available: Which one should be applied? How can offline analyses be incorporated in state estimation? Blac Bo Modelling (eural ets ) Etended approaches are necessary to consider measurements with different sampling intervals. onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Introduction: Application of State Estimation sampled measurements manipulated variables Process? Sensors noise infrequent measurements noise frequent measurements Estimator delay state and parameter estimates onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

onlinear State Estimation Basic principle of state estimation manipulated variables disturbances? Process disturbances Sensors measurements depends on the design method ( u t) f correction process model estimated states sensor model - y h( ) state estimator onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Approaches to onlinear State Estimation Process model is given as OE-system or system of difference equations f u t y F u t y y h ( ) ( ) ( ) y H ( ) The estimator must fulfill: Simulation condition: if ( t t0 ) ( t t 0 ) then Convergence condition: ( ) ( ) 0 ( ( t) ( t) ) 0 lim t for all inputs u(t) and for all inital errors. t t t > t onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Theory: Assume a linear system: Observability A Bu y C with R n The state variables of the system (A C) can be divided into two groups: - Observable states: The error dynamics can be prescribed arbitrarily by choice of the observer gains and are independent of the states and the nown inputs. - Unobservable states: the error dynamics are given by the (unobservable) eigenvalues of the system. efinition: A linear system is said to be observable if the matri Q [C T A T C T (A T ) 2 C T... (A T ) n- C T ] has ran n. In this case all states are observable. y R p onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Observability of onlinear Systems Theory: Assume a nonlinear system: ( u) y h( ) f efinition: A nonlinear system is said to be globally observable if all initial states 0 X 0 can be computed from observations of the output y(t) over an arbitrary interval of time. The states are then called observable. efinition: A nonlinear system is said to be locally observable at X 0 if initial states 0 X 0 in the neighborhood of are observable. To chec global observability a unique solution for the nonlinear observability map has to be found. Local observability can be checed using the linearized model (see conditions for linear models). onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

State and Parameter Estimation Observers can be etended to the estimation of unnown process parameters. The parameters are assumed to be additional state variables with dummy dynamics. f ( u p ) p 0 Observability in general becomes worse if more parameters must be estimated. The number of unnown parameters which can be estimated is restricted by the number of measurements! onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Approaches to onlinear State Estimation Gain Scheduled Observer (Luenberger observer with gains that depend on the estimated states and the inputs) Observer equations: ~ f ( u) f ( u) K( u) ( y h( )) K( u) calculated by eigenvalue placement for linearized error dynamics f h λ i I K λidesired u u Low effort for design Performance and stability only are guaranteed close to a fied (slowly varying) operating point. onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Approaches to onlinear State Estimation Sliding Mode Observer: For nonlinear systems of the form: Ψ A α( y u) EΨ( u) ( 0) w ( u) R with Ψ( u) ρ( u) y C and 0 y R m Measured nonlinearity R Bounded nonlinearities not measured umber of measurements number of unmeasured nonlinearities Ψ( u) Observer equation: ( ) ( ) ( y C ) A α y u ρ u E G y C 0 y C PG are weighting matrices which have to be determined in an iterative manner (an implicit Lapunov equation has to be solved). n ( ) ( ) 0 onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Sliding Mode Observer Properties of the SMO: Large effort for design Guaranteed global stability Convergence in 2 steps: y C 0. Movement to the switching plane:. 2. Sliding on the switching plane until the desired state is reached. switching line is reached in finite time ~ 2 sliding mode on switching line with eponential convergence ~2 0 ~ ~ t 0 ( t ) onlinear state estimation: switching line y ~ 0 Process ynamics

Etended Kalman Filter Etension of the model equations by stochastic errors (zero mean and given variance) f ( u t) y h( ) ω Filter minimizes the variance of the estimation error: {( ) ( )} T T E E{ ~ ~ } Min For nonlinear time discrete (sampled) systems the solution is a 2-step-algorithm: Correction of the predicted states and estimated covariance matri {( )( ) } T T P E i i i i E{ ~ ~ ii } after a new measurement was obtained Prediction of the states and the covariance matri of the estimation error up to the net time step by nonlinear forward simulation onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics EKF Algorithm otation: Estimated state at tt based on measurements up to tt Correction: Prediction: Constraints on states and disturbances cannot be considered. Only (at best) local stability! The critical part is the update of the covariance matri based on the linearized state equations. ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) T T P H K I P h y K R H P H H P K ( ) T h H f A Q A P A P u F and with

onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics Batch Estimation Suppose values of the process inputs and of the measured variables are available. Then the estimation of the corresponding states can be formulated as an optimization problem: In this formulation there are no assumptions on the statistics of the errors. o linearization is performed! onlinear optimization problem! Computational effort increases with reduce to a finite horizon! ϕ ϕ Ψ ϕ T T T R Q P 0 0 0 min ( ) ( ) h y u F 0 00 0 ϕ GB: Subect to

Moving Horizon State Estimation Further motivation for a deterministic observer based on numerical optimization: Possiblity of imposing constraints on states and disturbances Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE): Taes measurements over a finite horizon in the past into account o approimation of the nonlinear system within this horizon Model: iscrete-time nonlinear system y F h ( u ) ( ) ϕ onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics Moving Horizon State Estimator The Moving Horizon Estimator can be formulated as: ( ) ( ) ma min ma min ma min.:. min h y u F R Q P Ψ T T T s t ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ ϕ Minimize the error Model equations Physical or other constraints

onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics Constrained Etended Kalman Filter (CEKF) ( ) T T R P 0 min ϕ ϕ Ψ ϕ For a horizon of 0 the MHE becomes the Constrained EKF CEKF equations: Quadratic problem for linear measurement function ( ) h y ϕ equal. constr. subect to ( ) T h H f A Q A P A P u F and with plus additional constraints on errors and states

Case-Study: Polycondensation of PET Polycondensation of polyethylenterephtalate (PET) The mass transfer of a reaction byproduct from the melt to the gas phase determines the progress of the polycondensation process. o measurements of mass transfer coefficients under industrial process conditions available Process realized in a aceted 0 l stainless steel reactor controlled by a CS (Contronic-P ABB) nitrogen wa ter water reactor sample heatingsystem vacuumsystem onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

PET Polycondensation Batch process polymerization in the melt Main chemical reaction: 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 The reverse reaction is 8 times faster than the forward reaction The removal of ethyleneglycol (EG) determines the speed of the polymerization onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Main and side reactions: PET Polycondensation -[OH] -[OH] -[E]- EG (polymerisation) -[E]- -[COOH] -[CO 2 C 2 H 3 ] (thermal degradation) -[COOH] EG -[OH] H 2 O -[COOH] -[OH] -[E]- H 2 O -[OH] -[COOH] CH 3 CHO -[CO 2 C 2 H 3 ] -[OH] -[E]- CH 3 CHO Mathematical modelling yields a system of differential equations for the concentrations of hydroy group -[OH] ethylene glycol EG carboyl group -[COOH] acetaldehyde CH 3 CHO vinyl group -[CO 2 C 2 H 3 ] ester group -[E] and water H 2 O onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Model Reduction Model of 7 th order too comple several unnown mass transfer parameters Simplification by: eglecting the side reactions Estimation of the thermal degradation by steady state assumption as this reaction has slow dynamics compared to the main reaction Resulting model of 3 rd order includes dynamics of Concentrations of hydroygroup -[OH] and ethylene glycol EG and A parameter which characterizes the mass transfer of EG: β a onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Estimation Problem Available data: Measurements of temperature stirrer torque stirrer speed pressure Problems: Online measurement of the degree of polymerisation not possible Removal of the volatile reactionproduct ethylene glycol crucial but no infomation on the mass transfer coefficient is available Solution Computation of the degree of polymerisation based on available process data esign of an estimator based on a simple reaction model for - concentration of the most important end groups - mass transfer coefficient for the removal of ethylene glycol onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Eample: PET-Poly-Condensation Computation of the degree of polymerization Inputs: Temperature stirrer torque stirrer speed a) Semi-empirical model 2 M 7000 Pn C ep a n T Parameters C C 2 and a calculated by nonlinear regression from data of analysis of samples b) eural net Inputs: Ratio of stirrer torque and stirrer speed temperature Output: egree of polymerisation Training data: Laboratory analysis of samples C onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Estimation of the egree of Polymerization 00 90 80 70 P n [-] 60 50 40 30 20 0 measurements (offline) semi empirical model neural net 0 0 50 00 50 time [min] onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Simplified model: EG OH PET Polycondensation Model βa( 2 OH EG 8 * EG EG ) 2 Ema 2 OH 2 8 OH EG Ema 2 OH βa 0 Measurement equation: OH where f P M M y ( ) OH n EG E Goal: Estimation of the mass transfer coefficient in order to find dependencies on process conditions (stirrer speed temperature) onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Thesis by Paul Appelhaus Results after careful tuning EKF Parameters: onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Comparison EKF-MHE Simulation 20 % initial error in all states Constraints: EG 0 OH 0 βa 0 better convergence of the MHE onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Comparison EKF-MHE MHE (3) eperimental data constraints EG 0 OH 0 βa 0 onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Results PET Polycondensation Comparison EKF - MHE (3) eperimental data onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Estimation of the Mass Transfer Coefficient ifferent estimation methods gave similar results. Additional information about the process is provided. Estimation results enabled to improve process operation. evelopment of improved traectories of stirrer speed and reaction temperature Result: reduction of batch time by 0-5 % onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics

Summary EKF vs. MHE vs. CEKF EKF: Simple Often good results Tuning is not straightforward requires insight and trialand-error Instability may occur MHE: Uses full nonlinear model better convergence Constraints on states and disturbances can be imposed umerically demanding Tuning also an issue CEKF: Good compromise between performance and effort onlinear state estimation: Process ynamics