THE HUNT FOR NEUTRINO HIERARCHY Martina Gerbino OKC&NORDITA, Stockholm University Neutrino Oscillation Workshop 2016, Otranto 6 Sep 2016 based on Gerbino,Lattanzi,Mena,Freese,in prep
Roadmap The characters: neutrinos in cosmology A method to quantify cosmological sensitivity to the hierarchy Results from current and forecasted data Conclusion
Martina Gerbino, COSMO-16 Massive neutrinos alter background and perturbation evolution Linear regime ends roughly here { 3 H{+1L C { ê2p @10 9 mk 2 D 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 Sm n = 0.06 ev Sm n = 0.2 ev Sm n = 0.4 ev Sm n = 0.6 ev Sm n = 0.8 ev 0.6 0.4 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 WMAP9 data end here { credits: M.Lattanzi Abazaijan+,2015 3 active families, sub-ev masses Relativistic at early times, non-relativistic today (Almost) peculiar effects on cosmological observables
Where are we? Present M nu <0.46eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP) M nu <0.17eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO) (see e.g. Planck collaboration XIII) M nu <0.13eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO+ matter power shape) (see e.g. Cuesta et al, 2015) M nu <0.12eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+Lya) (see e.g. Palanque-Delabrouille et al, 2015) Future sigma(m nu )~0.02eV (COrE,Stage4,DESI,Euclid, )
Where are we? Questions: Present M nu <0.46eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP) Will we be able to measure M nu <0.17eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO) Mnu? M nu <0.13eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO+ Will matter we power be shape) able to M nu <0.12eV (Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+Lya) discriminate the hierarchy? Can we Future provide a statistically robust answer? sigma(m nu )~0.02eV (COrE,Stage4,DESI,Euclid, )
The standard method M nu (+other cosmological parameters) Degenerate spectrum: m,i = M /3, i=1, 2, 3 0.1eV Different authors obtain upper bounds from current data approaching the critical value of 0.1 ev. These results suggest that IH starts to get under pressure from cosmology. [ ] Such a claim should be based on a proper statistical analysis. The question to be answered is, whether the hypothesis of IH can be rejected with some confidence against NH. (Hannestad&Schwetz,2016)
The proposed method Mnu + other cosmological parameters + h Hyper-parameter h flat in [0,1] h<0.5 h>0.5 NORMAL HIERARCHY m,1 = m light q m,2 = m 2 1 + m2 12 q m,3 = m 2 1 + m2 13 Advantages: INVERTED HIERARCHY m,3 = m light q m,1 = m 2 3 + m2 13 q m,2 = m 2 1 + m2 12 neutrinos modelled with exact mass spectrum information from oscillations taken into account quantifies sensitivity to the hierarchy takes into account uncertainties related to the hierarchy
Sensitivity to the hierarchy: current data Preliminary 1.0 0.8 P/Pmax 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 TT+lowP TT+lowP+BAO TT,TE,EE+lowP TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 h type Mild preference for NORMAL HIERARCHY (~5:3) CMB only mildly sensitive (with polarisation) Sensitivity increases when BAO are added
Constraints on Mnu: current data 1.0 0.8 TT+lowP TT+lowP+BAO TT,TE,EE+lowP TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO Preliminary P/Pmax 0.6 0.4 0.2 M min M min M min M min M min =0.059 ev apple M apple 0.740 ev apple M apple 0.232 ev apple M apple 0.558 ev apple M apple 0.199 ev 0.0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 M [ev] 95%, Planck TT+lowP 95%, Planck TT+lowP+BAO 95%, Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP 95%, Planck TT,TE,EE+lowP+BAO
Sensitivity to the hierarchy: forecasts Preliminary 1.0 0.8 M fid =0.1 ev P/Pmax 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 COrE,M fid = 0.06 ev COrE+BAO,M fid COrE,M fid = 0.1 ev COrE+BA=,M fid = 0.06 ev = 0.1 ev 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 h type M fid =0.06 ev If Mnu is minimal, 10:1 odds for NH!!! If Mnu=0.1eV, cosmology almost insensitive
Constraints on Mnu: forecasts 1.0 0.8 COrE,M fid = 0.06 ev COrE+BAO,M fid COrE,M fid = 0.1 ev COrE+BA=,M fid = 0.06 ev = 0.1 ev Preliminary P/Pmax 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 M [ev] M min apple M apple 0.109 ev M =0.112 +0.037 0.040 ev 95%, COrE+BAO, minimal mass 95%, COrE+BAO, 0.1eV fiducial
Implications for 0n2b: present KamLAND-Zen, pessimistic Preliminary m bb @evd 0.01 0.03 0.1 KamLAND-Zen, optimistic Cosmology+ oscillations only 0.03 0.1 M n @evd 0n2b searches almost competitive cosmology (provided nuclear modelling under control)
Implications for 0n2b: forecasts Cosmology+oscillations only Preliminary m bb @evd 0.003 0.01 0.03 0.1 KamLAND-Zen H90%L M fid =0.1 ev 0.03 0.1 nexo 10yr wê Ba tag H90%L m bb @evd 0.003 0.01 0.03 0.1 KamLAND-Zen H90%L M fid = 0.06 ev 0.03 0.1 nexo 10yr wê Ba tag H90%L M n @evd M n @evd If Mnu=0.1eV, sigma(mbb)~10mev could guarantee 0n2b measurement If Mnu minimal, hard times
CONCLUSIONS Tight bounds on neutrino mass from cosmology Inverted hierarchy in trouble: how much? By introducing an hyper-parameter we can: 1) easily account for exact neutrino mass spectra; 2) quantify sensitivity to the hierarchy; 3) take into account uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge of the hierarchy NH favoured 5:3 by current data NH favoured 10:1 by future measurements, if the mass is minimal