Online version Issued: 17 December r JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 26 No 12 JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe December 2018 Mild start of winter Colder conditions forecast expected to improve frost tolerance Content: Winter kill analysis Agro-meteorological overview Atlas Covers the period from 1 November until 10 December Hardening is the bio-physiological process whereby winter cereals gain low-temperature tolerance to withstand freezing conditions that occur during the winter dormancy period. Currently, winter cereals are underdeveloped in large areas of Europe owing to delayed sowing and belowoptimal soil moisture conditions for sprouting. Thermal conditions have been much milder than usual; therefore, the hardening of winter wheat has started late and it seems to be weaker than usual, albeit more advanced than in 2017 around this time of the year, especially in eastern parts of Europe. The current situation is delicate, because underdeveloped crops with reduced frost tolerance are more susceptible to cold air intrusion, which could cause considerable frost damage in areas without snow cover deep enough to provide thermal insulation. 1
Our model simulations indicate no or weak frost tolerance in the western half of Europe, the Mediterranean region, southern parts of the Balkan Peninsula and western Turkey. In eastern and northern parts of the EU, hardening has started and winter crops have reached a slight or partial hardening stage in the Baltic countries, eastern Poland, northern Bulgaria and eastern Romania as well as in some parts of Finland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. In south-western Belarus, and southern and western Ukraine, winter wheat is typically just partially hardened, although the central and north-eastern regions of both countries present more advanced frost tolerance. Along the western border of Russia, winter wheat has reached advanced hardening and is locally almost fully hardened. Further eastward (such as in the northern parts of the Southern okrug, most of the Central okrug, and southern and south-western regions of the Volga okrug), winter wheat is expected to be partially hardened and locally advanced. Areas with a maximum level of frost tolerance are confined to the very northern and very eastern winter wheat cultivation regions of European Russia. In the first days of December, some minor/local frost-kill events may have occurred in central Romania, eastern Slovakia, north-eastern Hungary and eastern Poland due to the absence of adequate crop frost tolerance and low minimum temperatures (ranging between -16 C and - 13 C). Local frost-kill events have also been simulated in some parts of Sweden and Finland. In Russia, our frost-kill model suggests slight frost-kill damage of winter wheat in the Central okrug and in northern parts of the Southern okrug (e.g. Volgogradskaya oblast). Moderate, and locally considerable, frost-kill damage is probable in the Volga okrug (especially in the western and southern territories) as a consequence of severe cooling and absence of snow during the second dekad of November. Taking into consideration the latest medium-range weather forecast, winter hardening is likely to increase in central, northern and eastern Europe as a consequence of colder-than-usual conditions. On the basis of the temperature drops forecast, no frost kill is expected until the end of the forecast period (20 December). 2
Agro-meteorological overview Meteorological review (1 November 10 December) The period under analysis was significantly warmer than usual in Scandinavia and most of western and central Europe. Temperature anomalies in northern Scandinavia reached between 4 C and 6 C above the long-term average, while in eastern France, Italy, Austria, and along the eastern Adriatic coast, temperature anomalies between 2 C and 4 C above the long-term average prevailed. Whereas the first half of November was warmer than usual in most of Europe, temperatures dropped in the second half of the month. This drop in temperatures was most significant in the western Black Sea region, eastern Ukraine and eastern parts of European Russia. In these regions, the period under review as a whole was colder than usual with recorded temperatures between 1 C and 4 C below the long-term average. Minimum temperatures reached below -5 C in eastern Europe; minimum temperatures below -15 C were confined to northern Romania, western Ukraine, part of Scandinavia and central and northern parts of European Russia. Drier-than-usual weather prevailed in eastern and north-eastern Europe, with precipitation cumulates as low as 80% below the long-term average. Cumulative precipitation did not exceed 30 mm in southern Poland, northern and eastern parts of the Czech Republic, and parts of eastern Germany; precipitation deficit in these regions has persisted since the beginning of spring. Drierthan-usual conditions during the period under review have also been recorded in Romania, northern Ukraine, the central Balkan region and the central part of European Russia. Wetter-than-usual conditions appeared in the western Mediterranean region, Portugal, northern France, the British Isles and southern Scandinavia and also regionally in Turkey. Abundant rainfall with cumulates greater than 200 mm was recorded on the Adriatic coast of the Balkan Peninsula, on the south-western coast of the Apennine Peninsula, regionally in southern and western (coastal) France, and in the north-western part of the Iberian Peninsula, Ireland, the western coastal part of the UK and southern Norway. Whereas the first half of November was largely snow free in Europe, a snow layer appeared in the second half of the month and deepened during the first dekad of December in large parts of eastern and northern Europe, and in the Alpine region. 3
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Weather forecast (14 21 December) A series of fast cyclonic weather disturbances is expected to hit western/central Europe, deepen into the Mediterranean, and move east during the forecast period. At the beginning of the period, a cold air mass is forecast over central and eastern Europe. Warmer-than-usual weather conditions are forecast in large regions of western and south-eastern Europe, the UK and Ireland, and the Scandinavian Peninsula. Daily mean temperature anomalies (with respect to the long-term average) will mainly range between 2 C and 6 C. Colder-than-usual weather conditions are expected in eastern Europe and western Russia with daily mean temperature anomalies (with respect to the long-term average) ranging between -6 C and -2 C. In these areas, daily minimum temperatures will drop below -10 C. Colder-than-usual conditions are also expected in a large region extending from northern Italy to southern Poland. In this region, daily mean temperature anomalies are forecast between -4 C and -2 C, with daily minimum temperatures below -5 C. Cumulative precipitation below 5 mm in the forecast period is expected in large areas of eastern Europe, western Russia, southern Spain and Turkey. Cumulative precipitation above 40 mm in the forecast period is expected in large areas of the northwestern Iberian Peninsula, the Atlantic coast of France, Ireland, the western coast of the UK, central Italy and the Balkans. The long-range weather forecast for the next three months (January-March) points to probable warmerthan-usual conditions in the eastern Mediterranean. 5
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EC internal version MARS Bulletin Vol. 26 No. 12 17 December 2018 4. Atlas maps Temperature regime 7
Precipitation 8
Climatic water balance 9
JRC MARS Bulletins 2018 2016 Date Publication Reference 22 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 24 26 No. 1 19 Feb Agromet Agromet analysis, analysis durum Vol. 24 26 No. 2 17 Mar wheat Agromet update analysis and yield and Vol. 24 No. 3 yield forecast 19 22 Mar Apr Agromet analysis, yield Vol. 24 26 No. 34 remote forecast, sensing, pasture yield forecast, analysis 16 20 Apr May Agromet analysis, Vol. 24 26 No. 45 remote sensing, yield forecast, and sowing pasture conditions, analysis, sowing pasture conditions analysis 22 17 May Jun Agromet analysis, Vol. 24 26 No. 56 remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing pasture update, 22 Jul Agromet pasture analysis, Vol. 24 No. 7 18 Jun remote Agromet sensing, analysis, yield forecast, remote sensing, rice analysis yield Vol. 26 No 6 19 Aug Agromet forecast, analysis, pasture Vol. 24 No. 8 23 Jul remote update, sensing, rice analysis yield forecast, Agromet pasture analysis, update Vol. 26 No 7 23 Sep remote Agromet sensing, analysis, yield Vol. 24 No 9 remote forecast, sensing, harvesting yield forecast conditions, and pasture update 27 21 Aug Oct Agromet analysis, Vol. Vol. 2426 No. No 10 8 remote sensing, yield forecast, rice pasture analysis 18 Nov Agromet update, analysis harvesting and Vol. 24 No. 11 17 Sep yield forecast, update sowing Agromet conditions analysis, Vol. 26 No 9 16 Dec remote Agromet sensing, analysis yield Vol. 24 No. 12 forecast, harvesting update 22 Oct Agromet analysis, Vol. 26 No 10 remote sensing, yield forecast, rice analysis, harvesting update, sowing conditions 26 Nov Agromet analysis, Vol. 26 No 11 harvesting update, sowing updates 17 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 26 No 12 The current JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in in Europe is an JRC European - EC publication Commission from AGRI4CAST publication (JRC/IES from MARS4CAST Unit) (JRC Unit D5 Directorate for Sustainable Resources) MARS Bulletins are available under: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins Analysis http://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ and reports B. Baruth, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, G. De Sanctis, S. Garcia Condado, Analysis and S. Karetsos, reports R. Lecerf, R. Lopez, L. Nisini, L. Seguini, A. Bussay, A. Toreti, A. Ceglar, M. Van I. Cerrani, den Berg, D. Fumagalli, M. Van der S. Velde. Garcia Condado, L. Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Reporting Berg, A. Zucchini support G. Mulhern Reporting support Edition Prepress projects, I. Biavetti B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer Edition Data M. van production den Berg, M. van der Velde MARS unit AGRI4CAST/JRC, ALTERRA (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), Data VITO production (BE) and CMCC (IT) MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), Wagenigen Environmental Contact Research (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE) and CMCC JRC IES-MARS (IT) / AGRI4CAST info-agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST *MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources JRCMARSBULLETIN@ec.europa.eu Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication. Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position. Technical note: The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1975-2017 Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle. 10