Evaluation of the IPSL climate model in a weather-forecast mode

Similar documents
SPECIAL PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT

Transpose-AMIP. Steering committee: Keith Williams (chair), David Williamson, Steve Klein, Christian Jakob, Catherine Senior

Understanding Predictability and Model Errors Through Light, Portable Pseudo-Assimilation and Experimental Prediction Techniques

Taking into account the gustiness due to free and deep convection for the representation of air-sea fluxes. - in the LMDZ model -

CERA: The Coupled ECMWF ReAnalysis System. Coupled data assimilation

The ECMWF prototype for coupled reanalysis. Patrick Laloyaux

Correspondence between short and long timescale systematic errors in CAM4/CAM5 explored by YOTC data

Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office

The western Colombia low-level jet and its simulation by CMIP5 models

Global Ocean Freshwater Flux Components from Satellite, Re-analysis and In-Situ Climatologies

Turbulent fluxes. Sensible heat flux. Momentum flux = Wind stress ρc D (U-U s ) 2. Latent heat flux. ρc p C H (U-U s ) (T s -T a )

Improving ENSO in a Climate Model Tuning vs. Flux correction

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

Near-surface observations for coupled atmosphere-ocean reanalysis

Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

Model error and seasonal forecasting

How well do we know the climatological characteristics of the North Atlantic jet stream? Isla Simpson, CAS, CDG, NCAR

From short range forecasts to climate change projections of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

Challenges in model development

Cloud Feedbacks: their Role in Climate Sensitivity and How to Assess them

Modelling suppressed and active convection. Comparing a numerical weather prediction, cloud-resolving and single-column model

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

The Australian Summer Monsoon

The Coupled Earth Reanalysis system [CERA]

Coupled data assimilation for climate reanalysis

Moist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai

Key Physics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Based on Multi-model Simulations

WRF MODEL STUDY OF TROPICAL INERTIA GRAVITY WAVES WITH COMPARISONS TO OBSERVATIONS. Stephanie Evan, Joan Alexander and Jimy Dudhia.

High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes

MC-KPP: Efficient, flexible and accurate air-sea coupling

2 nd CCliCS Workshop, April 1 3, 2013, Taipei, Taiwan

ICRC-CORDEX Sessions A: Benefits of Downscaling Session A1: Added value of downscaling Stockholm, Sweden, 18 May 2016

Seasonal prediction of extreme events

Wind induced changes in the ocean carbon sink

Predictability and prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Sensitivity to the CAM candidate schemes in climate and forecast runs along the Pacific Cross-section

Connecting tropics and extra-tropics: interaction of physical and dynamical processes in atmospheric teleconnections

Ensemble-variational assimilation with NEMOVAR Part 2: experiments with the ECMWF system

Air-Sea Interaction and the MJO

4.4 EVALUATION OF AN IMPROVED CONVECTION TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN THE NCAR COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL CAM2 UNDER CAPT FRAMEWORK

DYNAMO/CINDY Sounding Network

Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries (QWeCI)

Sensitivity to the PBL and convective schemes in forecasts with CAM along the Pacific Cross-section

particular regional weather extremes

Recent, current & future work with NorESM-L in Bergen

Exploring and extending the limits of weather predictability? Antje Weisheimer

Adrian Simmons & Re-analysis by David Burridge (pay-back time!) Credits: Dick Dee, Hans Hersbach,Adrian and a cast of thousands

Ocean data assimilation for reanalysis

University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom. 2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom.

ECMWF Forecasting System Research and Development

ENSO and April SAT in MSA. This link is critical for our regression analysis where ENSO and

Model Error Diagnosis across Timescales

An Overview of Atmospheric Analyses and Reanalyses for Climate

Tropical cyclone simulations and predictions with GFDL s prototype global cloud resolving model

Environment and Climate Change Canada / GPC Montreal

The Art of Tuning and Coupling: A peek behind the scenes of CESM development. Cécile Hannay CAM science liaison AMP-CGD

SPECIAL PROJECT PROGRESS REPORT

Ensemble-variational assimilation with NEMOVAR Part 2: experiments with the ECMWF system

Sensitivity of zonal-mean circulation to air-sea roughness in climate models

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Report to WGNE: Selected GFDL Research Activities

Seasonal forecasting activities at ECMWF

Effects of a convective GWD parameterization in the global forecast system of the Met Office Unified Model in Korea

Role of the SST coupling frequency and «intra-daily» SST variability on ENSO and monsoon-enso relationship in a global coupled model

Applications of Data Assimilation in Earth System Science. Alan O Neill University of Reading, UK

Inter-linkage case study in Pakistan

ERA-CLIM: Developing reanalyses of the coupled climate system

Influence of clouds on radiative fluxes in the Arctic. J. English, J. Kay, A. Gettelman CESM Workshop / PCWG Meeting June 20, 2012

Advantages and limitations of different statistical downscaling approaches for seasonal forecasting

ENSO Outlook by JMA. Hiroyuki Sugimoto. El Niño Monitoring and Prediction Group Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

NSF 2005 CPT Report. Jeffrey T. Kiehl & Cecile Hannay

Projection Results from the CORDEX Africa Domain

Early Successes El Nino Southern Oscillation and seasonal forecasting. David Anderson, With thanks to Magdalena Balmaseda, Tim Stockdale.

Developments to the assimilation of sea surface temperature

Tropical Cyclone Simulations in CAM5: The Impact of the Dynamical Core

Global reanalysis: Some lessons learned and future plans

The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4)

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections

Tropical Cyclones in a regional climate change projections with RegCM4 over Central America CORDEX domain

Ocean Data Assimilation for Seasonal Forecasting

Conference on Teleconnections in the Atmosphere and Oceans November Fall-to-winter changes in the El Nino teleconnection

The CMCC contribution to! ERA-CLIM2!

High resolution regional reanalysis over Ireland using the HARMONIE NWP model

Pacific Storm Track at Different Horizontal Resolutions Snap-shot of Column Liquid Water Content

Sensitivity of Tropical Tropospheric Temperature to Sea Surface Temperature Forcing

The 5th Research Meeting of Ultrahigh Precision Meso-scale Weather Prediction, Nagoya University, Higashiyama Campus, Nagoya, 9 March 2015

The ECMWF coupled assimilation system for climate reanalysis

The 2009 Hurricane Season Overview

Seasonal Prediction, based on Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction system (CanSIPS) for the Fifth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum

Regional forecast quality of CMIP5 multimodel decadal climate predictions

The linear additivity of the forcings' responses in the energy and water cycles. Nathalie Schaller, Jan Cermak, Reto Knutti and Martin Wild

Analysis of Fall Transition Season (Sept-Early Dec) Why has the weather been so violent?

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure of the MJO in AIRS Observations: An Update and A Comparison to ECMWF Interim Reanalysis

Climate Variables for Energy: WP2

Observation requirements for regional reanalysis

Convection Trigger: A key to improving GCM MJO simulation? CRM Contribution to DYNAMO and AMIE

The JRA-55 Reanalysis: quality control and reprocessing of observational data

Transcription:

Evaluation of the IPSL climate model in a weather-forecast mode CFMIP/GCSS/EUCLIPSE Meeting, The Met Office, Exeter 2011 Solange Fermepin, Sandrine Bony and Laurent Fairhead

Introduction Transpose AMIP Case of study LMDZ and the SCM Results Conclusions and Future work We need to identify systematic biases in the physics of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to guide model development. We need to evaluate climate models in configurations where the dynamics is well constrained. A classical approach Single Column Model (SCM) simulations: One column integration of model physics forced by observed large scale dynamical forcings. Limited number of locations. Another approach Transpose AMIP simulations: Global short term integrations. GCM initialized from a very well defined state (reanalysis).

Transpose AMIP Motivation: to identify errors in the model physics and their influence on the model dynamics. An example: RELATIVE HUMIDITY errors in LMDZ, 15-Oct-2008 day1-fc. day2-fc. day3-fc. day4-fc. day5-fc. Bias ERAInt. LMDZ

Example An example: RELATIVE HUMIDITY errors in LMDZ, 15-Oct-2008 10-yr. October Climatology errors day5-forecast errors LMDZ-ERA Int.

Example An example: RELATIVE HUMIDITY errors in LMDZ, 15-Oct-2008 10-yr. October Climatology errors day5-forecast errors LMDZ-ERA Int. Which approach better points out the reasons for the climatological biases of LMDZ?

TOGA-COARE Case of study: TOGA-COARE Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment From 1992-Nov-01 to 1993-Feb-28 a Comprehensive observational Dataset Wester Pacific Warm pool Intensive Flux Array (IFA) (155E, 2S) a Ciesielski, et al. (2003)

Introduction Transpose AMIP Case of study SCM LMDZ and the SCM Results Conclusions and Future work LMDZ Single column version of LMDZ Atmospheric component of IPSL climate model Location: 155E, 2S 3.75 x 1.87 resolution 39 vertical levels 39 vertical levels SSTs observed SSTs prescribed TOGA-COARE forcings ERA Interim for initialization (u,v,r,t,sp) with TOGA obs. assimilated

Forcings Relative Humidity: Observations, Reanalyses and models ERA Int. vs IFA Obs. IFA Obs. ERA Int. ERA - Obs. November average day1-fc vs ERA SCM vs IFA Obs. ERA Int. day1-fc. Fc. - ERA November average November average IFA Obs. SCM SCM - IFA Obs.

Model outputs Relative Humidity at the IFA: November Bias November 1992 10-yr. November Climatology day1-fc. - ERAInt day5-fc. - ERAInt SCM - IFA Obs. 10-yr ERA Int. Clim. 10-yr. LMDZ Clim. Bias = LMDZ - ERA Int.

Model outputs Relative Humidity at the IFA: November Bias November 1992 10-yr. November Climatology day1-fc. - ERAInt day5-fc. - ERAInt SCM - IFA Obs. Influenced by dynamics? 10-yr ERA Int. Clim. 10-yr. LMDZ Clim. Bias = LMDZ - ERA Int.

Model outputs Relative Humidity and Vertical Velocity at the IFA Relative Humidity Vertical Velocity November 1992 day1-fc. - ERAInt day5-fc. - ERAInt SCM - IFA Obs. day1-fc. - ERAInt day5-fc. - ERAInt SCM - IFA Obs.

Model outputs Relative Humidity time series at the IFA IFA Obs. ERA Int. day5-fc day1-fc

Model outputs Zonal Wind at the IFA IFA Obs. ERA Int. day5-fc. day1-fc.

Model outputs Precipitation: November average errors (mm/day) day5-fc day1-fc 10yr clim

So far... Some model biases appear early in the Transpose-AMIP simulations and amplify very quickly over the first few days of integration. First day Transpose AMIP forecasts show good agreement with Single Column Model simulations as expected, since in both cases the dynamics is well constrained. By the fifth day of integration, the errors in Transpose AMIP simulations resemble the climatological errors in the model, showing that Transpose AMIP approach allows us to study the influence of dynamics errors on the physics of the model.

...for the future Transpose AMIP will be used to study the influence of the representation of clouds on the large scale dynamical biases. It will also be used to study the resolution sensitivity of the parametrization of convection in the LMDZ model. Thank you!