Building a Spatial Framework for the Analysis of Benthic Fauna Along the River Network of Switzerland Lehmann 1 A., S., Stucki 2 P. and Gonseth 3 Y. 1 University of Geneva, 2 private consultancy, 3 CSCF SWAT 2007 / June 5. 2007
Photos: Pascal Stucki Swiss river spatial framework Introduction GIS spatial framework SWAT contribution Red lists of rare species Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions Conclusions
DISTAL Introduction: conceptual model Ecological factors Abiotic factors Geographic factors Biotic factors Geological factors Climate: temperature rainfall Altitude Food Species interactions Reproduction Chemical factors: ph Conductivity Landuse Slope Geo-chemical cycles: carbon, minerals Oxygen Flow SPECIES DISTRIBUTION Morphology Substrate Anthropic factors: Toxics Fertilizers Heavy metals Salts Heat Corrections PROXIMAL Biogeographic factors Geographic barriers Habitat patches From Braukmann 1987
Rhein Inn Rhône Ticino Switzerland: 41 285 km 2, alt. 193m-4634m, 4 main watersheds, pop. 7.5M, 178hab/km 2
500m segments Seg 500m 1/ dissolve with Gewiss ID 2/ split every 500m 3/ sample grids Scale and Segmentation and Segmentation
Hydrological Atlas On screen digitalisation Scale and Segmentation and Segmentation
1000m Watersheds Precipitation sum Scale and Segmentation 1/ script to delineate watersheds 2/ script to sample grid layers
Available Predictors 500m segments Altitude Hydrologic atlas Flow type Watersheds (1000m) CaCO3 Sinuousity Population density Slope Naturalness Dam influence Rainfall Air temperature % Slope > 30 Geodatabase %Agriculture %Forest % Glaciers Sewage capacity % Agriculture
SWAT SWAT contribution 4854 sub watersheds, 49000HRU, river length
Climate in Swizerland Swiss climate
Comparing methods on annual flow SUM of PRECIPITATION SWAT 450000000 100 400000000 90 Relative scale 350000000 300000000 250000000 200000000 150000000 100000000 gages 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 50000000 10 SWAT 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 m 3 /s 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 m 3 /s A proper calibration is under way!
ArcGIS geodatabase Geodatabase
Red list for MEPT species Molluscs Ephemeropters Plecopters Tricopters New red list status Length of suitable rivers Several hundred species
IUCN Red lists criteria: Extent of occurence Land Observations Observations Rivers Zone of occurrence Occurrence length Area of occupancy Occupancy length
GRASP 4.Prediction 3.Model CaCO3 Air temperature Rainfall 1.Observations: Y Lehmann et al., Ecol. Mod. 2002 2.Predictors: Xs
Type of responses Data Presence only: Distribution pseudo 0 > binomiale Distributions Presence absence: Abundance: Richness: binomiale Poisson Poisson Cover : binomiale Biomass : normale
Statistical Models Xs New Xs CALIBRATION PREDICTION Ys observed Ys estimated Y Y Y X1 X1 X1 X2 Inference GLM X2 GAM X2 NN Prediction
Running GRASP from Splus GUI Choice of Ys and Xs Data exploration Selection methods Interpretation & Predictions
http://www.unige.ch/ia/climate/grasp GRASP Website R version Splus version
GRASP Correlation between predictors
Ancylus fluviatilis GRASP
Epeorus alpicola GRASP
GRASP Statistical validation
GRASP Mean contribution on 326 species
Next tasks Improve soil database Run SWAT on separate the watersheds to increase resolution Proper calibration, sensitivity analysis Extract water temperature data for every reach Re-run GRASP species models Evaluate species length of occupation Next
Conclusions Conclusions SWAT could greatly contribute to the study and modeling of river invertebrates distribution. The combination with true climatic data will allow taking into account river floods and droughts, as well as simulating the impact of future climatic changes. GRASP is an interesting companion to SWAT in order to extrapolate point measurements such as species observations to an entire river network. SWAT+GRASP should allow defining species red lists criteria in terms of length of available river for every species
Swiss river spatial framework Thanks Acknowledgements: Dr. F. Cordillot (OFEV), Dr. H. Aschwanden (OFEV), Dr. J. Leathwick (NIWA), Dr. R. Caloz (EPFL), Sophie Rast (Master student), Numerous and indispensible species data providers Anthony.Lehmann@unige.ch