WMO Worldwide Space Weather Coordination Terry Onsager Physicist U.S. National Weather Service, Space Weather Prediction Center Co-Chair WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather Director International Space Environment Service Terry.Onsager@noaa.gov
Main Topics Global Service Demand National Civil Contingencies International Coordination Efforts Future Goals and Challenges
Space Weather has Global-Scale Causes and Local Impacts Sweden: - Power outage - Transformer heating in nuclear plant United States: - Power reduced to mitigate impact on generation facilities South Africa: - 14 transformers damaged - $60 million impact - Basic commerce and security impaired
Spacecraft Operations and Aviation Impacts January 8, 2014 NBCnews.com Polar Airline Flights Re-routed Orbital Sciences cargo delivery to ISS Energetic Proton Flux Geostationary Orbit
Sunspot Number Growth in Subscribers to U.S. Space Weather Products Customers Include: All major airlines Drilling and oil exploration Satellite companies Transportation sector Emergency responders ~25% of customers are International Number of Subscribers Subscription service began
Space Weather Risks are Recognized - National Mitigation Plans are being Developed South Korea: Space Weather included in National Risk Profile Roles and responsibilities of agencies and ministries defined United Kingdom: National Register Recognizes Space Weather Risks Korea Space Weather Center
Overarching Goal: Strengthen Resilience Through Improved Services Four elements needed to improve space weather capabilities: 1. User Needs: Understand the risks and the actions that need to be taken 2. Targeted Services: Develop useable capabilities from basic science knowledge 3. Observing Infrastructure: Distributed space-based and groundbased 4. Global Coordination: Consistent, accurate message
World Meteorological Organization Specialized Agency of the United Nations with 191 Members Space Weather impacts the Global Observing System Space Weather affects economic activities (aviation, satellites, electric power, navigation, etc.) Synergy with current WMO services and users WMO Space Programme: Report on: THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHER Space-based Observing System Access to Satellite Data and Products Awareness and Training Space Weather Coordination April 2008
WMO Space Weather Coordination Goals Space Weather Coordination Evaluate space weather user requirements for observations, products, and services Coordinate ground and space-based observations Space-based Observing System Promote and facilitate data exchange and standardization Develop best practices for observing, forecasting, and communicating to users Access to Satellite Data and Products Train and build capacity Ensure a science-based, authoritative voice Awareness and Training
WMO Inter-Programme Coordination Team on Space Weather (ICTSW) Representatives for Italy: Dr Daniele Biron Head of Satellite Area Centro Nationale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica Prof. Mauro Messerotti INAF-Astronomical Observatory of Trieste Canada United States Established in May, 2010 23 Member Countries 7 International Organizations Norway Russian Finland Federation United Kingdom Sweden Germany China Belgium Poland France Switzerland Japan Italy Korea Ethiopia Pakistan Thailand Dr Bruno Zolesi Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Brazil South Africa Australia
Coordination of Major Application Areas: Aeronautical Meteorology ICAO recognizes the ICTSW as the WMO technical body to provide advice on space weather matters Reviewed the ICAO Concept of Operation for International Space Weather Information Reviewed draft Standards and Recommended Practices on space weather Provided guidance on future organization of operational space weather service delivery
International Space Weather Observing Requirements Observing requirements are documented. Updated on two-year cadence by international team Database addresses operational, research, and climatology needs Forms the basis for gap analysis and advocacy http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/applicationareas/view/25
WMO Space Weather Observations Gap Analysis (Statement of Guidance) Addresses observing needs for: - Long lead-time forecasts - Alerts of hazardous conditions - Event climatology - Model validation - Scientific research Observing domains: - Ionosphere - Thermosphere - Geomagnetic - Energetic Particles - Solar and Interplanetary Statement of Guidance for Space Weather Observations http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/osy/sog/sog-sw.doc
WMO Space Weather Product Portal Nine countries now contribute space weather products on the portal Enhance awareness of available products Enable use by partners at no cost Increase global participation in space weather services Facilitate intercomparison and coordination of products Training under development for new users http://www.wmo-sat.info/product-access-guide/theme/space-weather
Challenges Ahead The improvement of space weather services requires coordinated, committed partners around the globe Many space-based observations are obtained from research missions with limited lifetimes continuity of data is a concern Many ground-based observations are not available in real time nor on shared networks Research is needed with a focus on the development of applications to support specific user needs Global and regional services must be coordinated
International Space Environment Service Coordinating space weather services since 1962 Improved service coordination is a priority Endorsed by national governments as space weather service providers Provide local users with targeted services 16 Regional Warning Centers 4 Associate Warning Centers 1 Collaborative Expert Center UK Graz Promote exchange of data and information Close collaboration with WMO www.spaceweather.org
Aviation Meteorology Global/Regional Functions Wide Area Forecast Centers (WAFC) Global WAFC (Washington) Backup WAFC (London) Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) Regional VAAC VAAC VAAC Meteorological Watch Organizations (MWO) Local MWO Airport MWO Airport MWO Airport MWO Airport WAFC WAFC
Space Weather - Global Functions Global-scale phenomena can be addressed by a limited number of centers Solar Flares Forecasts, Warnings, and Alerts Solar Protons Forecasts, Warnings, and Alerts Geomagnetic Forecasts and Warnings Storms
Space Weather - Regional Functions Regional-scale phenomena must be addressed by a distributed network Ionospheric Total Electron Content Disturbances Ionospheric Scintillation Disturbances Geomagnetic Alerts and Local Impacts Storms
Global/Regional Roles for Space Weather Observations Space-based observations of space weather drivers (solar active regions, CMEs, solar wind at L1) can be obtained by a few countries and shared - Encourage international organizations (WMO, CGMS, UNCOPOUS) to advocate for a plan among countries with satellite capabilities Ground-based measurements of local disturbances require commitment from each individual country - Foster the establishment of operational space weather programs within countries to ensure local support for data infrastructure - Leverage infrastructure that already exists for weather and climate
United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) COPUOS Scientific and Technology Subcommittee (STSC): Space Weather is a new agenda item for STSC (2013) Space weather guidelines and recommended practices for space actors will soon be released (2015) COPUOS actions cover the full range of issues basic research, applications, capacity building with high-level government and space agency participation COPUOS is well positioned to facilitate communication from basic science to operational services
Space Weather Services to Build Global Resilience Expert Meeting on Space Weather Services February, 2015 UNCOPUOS STSC Assembly Goal: Foster greater global participation in space weather service activities How can members benefit from information and services available today? What types of services are likely to be needed in various regions? How can members expand from a research/education capability to a service capability? How can members contribute local data and expertise to the global effort? Supporting the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) Scientific and Technical Subcommittee (STSC) Agenda Item on Space Weather
Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites Focus on operational spacecraft and instrument issues Host space weather instruments Routinely report on satellite anomalies Can facilitate integration of observing capabilities Near-term Actions: 1. Develop Terms of Reference for space weather activities 2. Work with WMO space weather team to develop procedures for collection and use of anomaly information
Summary There is a growing, global need for improved services and for consistent, coordinated observations and operational information Coordination on observations, services, and research is essential to improving our global resilience to space weather The WMO is actively engaged in defining service needs and observing requirements, identifying gaps, and coordinating efforts ISES, ICAO, COPUOS, and CGMS are also engaged in complementary efforts to improve service capabilities Italy and the European Union are important partners in all aspects of the global space weather effort