Evolving Meteorological Services for the Terminal Area Towards an new participatory approach in ATM H. Puempel Chief, Aeronautical Meteorology Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Dept. WMO
The fundamental tasks The objectives of MET support to global ATM : minimize the impact of weather on the total air transport system for optimum throughput in all meteorological conditions effective mitigation of the residual impact can be introduced. Integration of MET into ATM decision making process.
Weather Goal To provide advanced weather information to enable improved collaborative planning and efficient utilization of resources (e.g., airspace, airports) to optimize operations & reduce the impact of weather from gate to gate
Services for MET/ATM Meteorological Services in Terminal Area (MSTA) Provide MET support to both tactical and strategic ATM in high-density terminal areas and aerodromes Translate MET information into air traffic impact Available as digital gridded/object data for direct integration into decision support systems Net-Centric sharing of meteorological information commonly referred to in the U.S. as 4-D Weather Cube Global Harmonization under Collaborative Decision Making Concept
Focus on Weather Impact MET information to be translated directly into ATM constraints and impacts Intensities and parameters to be objectively calibrated Ultimately, the interpretations and translation of weather information largely automated, consultation provided on best use of system
Global MET for Global ATM Needs to accommodate: Normal and congested airspace Traditional and Performance-based navigation Translates into: Improved MET capabilities Coherent and consistent MET information Quality assured, timely, accurate, complete and up-to-date MET information Better integration of MET information into operational decision support for ATM Information sharing Integration and interoperability of ATS, ATFM, airports, AIS, MET, AOCs and aircraft into an interactive system
Impact quantification Where quantifying deterministic impact on single flight is unrealistic, concentrate on Integrated effect on terminal acceptance capacity Include upper/lower limit of likely impact (5, 95 percentile?) Determine likelihood of Alternates being similarly affected (Safety!)
Bridging the cultures Need to translate inherently «probabilistic» MET into deterministic (yes/no) ATM decisions Risk Management Approach Decision Thresholds to be set using Cost- Loss models Quantification of Cost Function essential
Information Fusion MET information essential, but not sole basis for decision making process Relative «weights» to be determined objectively Maintain transparency for «human users»
MSTA Concept Make use of 4-D weather data (including numerical weather prediction models, weather observations, nowcast objects/features) Translate and integrate most important MET information into: Easy-to-use visualizations (colour coded) that present impacts to ATM Gridded data that can be integrated into DSTs for arrival management and departure management Promote common situational awareness
MSTA Concept Translate and integrate most important MET information into easy-to-use form (colour coded) that presents expected impacts to ATM Create and Promote common situational awareness Make best use of 4-D weather data (including numerical weather prediction models, weather observations, nowcast objects/features
Trust to be based on verification Large-scale motion parameters well identified and verified (wind, temperature, geopotential) Vertical humidity structures short-lived, complex and poorly observed ( radiosondes only available for 1% of time x surface of globe at best) AMDAR data may become available in the future Very difficult to verify convection, precipitation, icing, turbulence
Forecast Error Considerations 14
MSTA Concept-Examples Depict forecast positions of thunderstorms, making it easier to identify which flight corridors would be affected To raise awareness of users and to facilitate decision making Route Availability Planning Tool (RAPT), MIT Lincoln Laboratory, US
MSTA Concept-Examples Japan Translating various MET elements to scenarios which correspond to weather impact to airport and terminal operation Examples: crosswind, visibility, thunderstorms, snowfall, windshear reaching certain thresholds for specific regions which have impact to ATM
ICAO Provisions MET Provisions Annexes to the Chicago Convention Procedures for Air Navigation Services (PANS) Manuals Other Guidance materials Annex 3 No PANS for MET Manuals on: Aero MET practice (Doc 8896), Volcanic ash (Doc 9691) Ground de-icing/antiicing operations (Doc 9640) Need for a Manual on MET-ATM-PBN and a PANS-MET!
How can Developing Countries prepare? Closely follow the progress in the lead regions Watch for releases of the new XML/GML based Weather Exchange models ( they will become visible around 2013-2015) Evaluate trends in national aviation (density of traffic, innovation in national and regional ATM) Watch ICAO and WMO web sites for announcements, participate actively in 2014 ICAO/WMO Conjoint Meeting
How to prepare Most important: Do not try to go it alone! (In Europe SESAR has dozens of participating countries and Industry, Eurocontrol etc.) Use existing regional structures (ICAO PIRG s, WMO RA 1, MASA, SADC etc.) Involve international funding agencies from the start ( they will be active in the field of aviation, tap into these resources)