5. OCTOBER 2012 BLIGHT MANAGEMENT DSS FOR CONTROL OF POTATO LATE BLIGHT EXPERIENCES FROM DENMARK BENT J. NIELSEN, JENS GRØNBECH HANSEN & LARS BØDKER AARHUS & KNOWLEDGE CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURE UNI VERSI TET
Potato FA Q. How close is la te b lig t to my a re a / fie ld Is it b lig ht weather now? Blig ht weather th e comming da ys? Is it tim e to a d just / change stra te gie s? Ne e d for e ffe ctive pre ve ntive fung icid e s? Ne e d for cura tive a ctions? Can I save money? 2
National concerns. Sporuleringstimer [HSPO] 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1987 1988 Juni Juli August September TFI 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Increasing use of fung icid e s Fa rme r economy Danish pota to production 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 10 8 6 4 2 0 Behandlingshyppighed
Decission support Possib ility to re d uce fung icid e inp ut Effe ctive dise a se control Im p rove m e nts in control stra te gie s Sa me or higher ne t yie ld Research and developpment supported by Danish Pota to Council (KAF) Ministry of Environment Ministry of Ag riculture (Na turerhve rvstyre lse n) 4
Blight Management De cission support syste m for control of pota to la te b lig ht (Phytophthora infestans) Support to potato growers and advisors Information and forecast system Monitoring of first attack and spread of LB Weather forecast Prognosis for potential infection pressure Recommendations Recomended dose level depending on risk (not public yet) www.landbrugsinfo.dk (www.skimmelstyring.dk) 5
Occurrence of late blight No a tta ck in country Atta ck in country Atta ck in re g ion Atta ck in fie ld Recordings from a d visors tha t frequently a re visiting pota to fie ld s Re d : Ne w infe ctions. Blue: > 10 da ys old Monitoring ne twork www.landbrugsinfo.dk
Infection pressure Daily risk values (HSPO, hours/ day): Temperature > 10C RH > 88 % Local weather Te m p e ra ture Rh Hourly va lue s 4 days weather forecast Sum HSPO: (running mean) Prognosis for the day and comming 4 da ys Estima te of sp ore production, sp re a d and infe ction
Infection pressure Historica l d a ta Actua l day 4 da ys fore ca st
Local risk level VERY HIGH HIGH MODERATE LOW
Regional risk levels
Weather data Rh, te mp and p re cip ita tion historica l va lue s and 7 da ys prognosis (Da nish Me t. Office ) Re g iona l weather for ca st (Da nish Me t. Office ) Actua l day
Weather data Sta tus for p re cip ita tion Ma y Give n p e riod Actua l week
Available tools at www.landbrugsinfo.dk 13
Use of information Fa rme rs Sta rch p rod uce rs Ad visors Na tiona l a dvisory se rvice Decission support Background information com b ine d with othe r informa tion Support not d e cission m od e l (!) Recommendations and newsle tte rs to fa rme rs We kly a d visor telephone meetings in the se a son (Mo nd a y) 14
Toolbox on development platform Different applications under development GUDP p roje ct p la tform Development tools for the p roje ct www.skimme lstyring.d k
Toolbox: Ne g a tiv prognosis Model to fore ca st risk of la te b lig ht outb re a k (va lue s>130) (Ullrich and Schrod te r) Te m p e ra ture, Rh, and rainfall (starting at crop emergence) Accumulated risk va lue s Can be e use d pre dict the timing of the first tre a tme nt. Mod e l a ssumes the sa m e a m ount of initia l inoculum is p re se nt e ve ry ye a r Old m od e l tha t just needs to be implemented and e xp la ine d
Toolbox: Sm a rtp hone a p p lica tions Loca l Infe ction pressure available as a p p lica tion on sm a rtp one (de mo ve rsion)
Toolbox: Ind e x fo r surviva l of sporangia Survuiva l of sporangia depends on g lob a l ra d ia tion (UV) Infe ction risk = surviva l ra te x sp ora ng ia UV ra d ia tioin + prognosis for UV ra d ia tion
Toolbox: Re sista nce le ve l in va rie tie s Susceptible Moderate resistant. Higher level beginning of season (Kuras) 100 % angrebet bladareal 80 60 40 20 0 13-06 03-07 23-07 12-08 01-09 21-09 Bintje Saturna Kuras Oleva Te st a fte r Euca b lig ht protocol. No tria ls for the moment
Toolbox: Fung icid e dose model Dose va rie s depending on risk situa tion (a ctua l and coming days)
Fungicide dose model Use of fung icid e s (d ose x inte rva ls) d e p e nd on risk situa tion (actual and coming days): Recommended actual dose: Infe ction p re ssure x occurence o f LB x le ve l of re sista nce No or low risk of infe ction: No spraying or low dose of effective fung icid e s Incre a sing risk of infe ction: Dose of effective fung icid e s depends on a ctua l risk
Dose-response curves for potato fungicides, examples Dithane % Control 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Doselevel (% of normal, N=2 kg) % control Ranman 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Dithane 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Doselevel (% of normal, N=0,2 l) % Control Curzate M 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Doselevel (% of normal, N=2,5 kgl) Revus % bekæmpelse 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Dose niveau (% af normal, N=0,5 NB!) AU, Flakkebjerg 12 sprayings, 7 days intervals
Re sista nce le ve l in va rie tie s Susceptible Moderate resistant. Higher level beginning of season (Kuras) 100 % angrebet bladareal 80 60 40 20 0 13-06 03-07 23-07 12-08 01-09 21-09 Bintje Saturna Kuras Oleva
Fung icid e d ose le ve ls in m od e l Dose level (100=full dose) 100 80 60 40 20 0 80 60 40 20 0 1 2 4 3 Atta ck in fie ld Atta ck in re g ion Atta ck in country No a tta ck in country 24
Fie ld tria ls with dose models 2009-2011 1. Dithane NT 2 kg/ ha 2. Ra nm e n Re vus 1/ 1 dose 3. Ranman Re vus ½ dose 4. Mo d e l 1 Reduced dose e sp e cia lly e a rly se a son 5. Mo d e l 2 Dose furthe r reduced 6. Mo d e l 3 As model 1 but include s Dithane NT Va rie try: Locations: Kura s (sta rch va rie ty) 3 (Fla kke b je rg, He rning & Try) 25
9 tria ls 2010-2011 AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 12 12 6 9,5 7,7 10,2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 12 tria ls 2009-2011 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 26 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s.
9 tria ls 2010-2011 AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 12 12 6 9,5 7,7 10,2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 12 tria ls 2009-2011 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 27 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s.
9 tria ls 2010-2011 AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) TFI Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 12 12 6 9,5 7,7 10,2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 12 tria ls 2009-2011 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 28 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s.
9 tria ls 2010-2011 AARHUS % la te b lig ht (e a rly se p.) Ne t yie ld (DKR/ ha ) Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 12 12 6 9,5 7,7 10,2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 12 tria ls 2009-2011 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s. Dithane NT 12,2 Revus-Ranman 1/1 12,3 Revus-Ranman ½ 6.1 Model 1 9,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 29 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 n.s.
Treatment frequency ind e x *) 3 tria ls 2011 9 tria ls 2010-2011 Dithane NT Dithane NT Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman 1/1 Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 8% Revus-Ranman ½ Model 1 21% Model 2 25% Model 2 36% Model 3 Model 3 15% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Re d uc tion 0-25% (favorable b lig ht cond itions) Re d uc tion 15-36% *) number of time s sp ra ye d with sta nda rd dose (e.g. 4 x ½ = 2) 30
Summary: Blight Management Monitoring syste m works a nd shows the first a tta cks and sp re a d o f LB Ca lcula tion of infe ction p re ssure works Le ve l re fle cts p e riod s with low and hig h LB dise a se p re ssure (experienced from p ra ctice ) Ba sis for a d justing stra te gie s and tim ing of cura tive p rod ucts 31
Summary: Dose model Still a re se a rch m od e l Ba sis for re d uction in fung icid e inp ut (a p p rox.30%) Sa me or be tte r LB control a s full standard dose Sa me ne t yie ld as standard rutine Im p rove m e nts: Alte rna ria modul Ne w fung icid e s (p re v./ cur.) Ea rly sta rt 32
Blight Management? 33
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