Regional Approach for Climate Services: South Asian Context Rupa Kumar Kolli Chief World Climate Applications & Services Division
Regional Approach Rationale The Climate Services Information System (CSIS) is the component of the GFCS most concerned with the generation and dissemination of climate information, and is considered to be the operational centre of the GFCS. The country-focused results based framework for WMO contributions to the GFCS focuses on creating the regional delivery systems, tools and methods, and national capacities for improving climate-related outcomes. A focused regional effort would facilitate systematic strengthening of early warning services in a comprehensive manner that would help countries in the region achieve this goal, with facilitated access to regional information as an essential input for national climate services. The approach can be demonstrated in a few target regions and upscaled to other regions.
Basic Building Blocks CSIS minimum (core) functions Data (historic, present, future) Monitoring Prediction (sub-seasonal to decadal) Projection Additional CSIS functions to underpin demand-driven services Deployment of Climate Services Toolkit Integration with relevant WMO standards and protocols GDPFS/WIS/WIGOS Partnerships Aspects of seamlessness (single window) Capacity development institutional/infrastructural/procedural/human resources Regionally tailored projects All the above elements to be identified and in place and fully operational All the interfaces between the above elements to be identified and established and to allow for a lively information exchange
Current status of availability and access to data and products from CSIS entities Availability of data and products (Non-exhaustive list) PREHISTORICAL PAST 100 More than 10 types of proxies (corals, insects, pollen, tree rings,...) Paleoclimatology proxies CRU, NOAA Reconstructed variables CRU, NOAA 1850 HISTORICAL PAST Frequency: Sub-daily, daily or monthly In situ data Global Regional National GHCN-Daily RBSN BOM CDO 90 000 stations 4 000 stations 16 000 stations More than 200 variables available from stations Climate extreme indices ETCCDI: 27 indices for more than 100 countries ICA&D: > 50 indices for more than 15 000 stations Gridded data and Remote sensing gridded merged data data CRU: 0.5 0.5 EUMETSAT satellite-based GPCP: 1.0 1.0 WDC-RSAT data few km CMAP: 2.5 2.5 NOAA NCEI: radar data few km Atmospheric measurements 6 GAW WDCs: > 1 400 stations Reanalysis more than 10 global reanalysis: > 100 km ERA-Interim, ERA-15, ERA-40, NCEP-NCAR, JRA-55, dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis: CORDEX, CaRD10 10-50 km regional reanalysis: NARR, ASR Graphical tools ENACTS maps data: > 30 years, 4-5 km grid ClimatView station monthly T2m, RR 1982-present, > 2 500 stations CONTEMPORARY PAST WEATHER TIMESCALE IRI Map Room maps, graphics, animations, data WMO WWIS station normals T2m, RR 1 900 stations FORECASTS present S2S Frequency: Daily to monthly Monthy/seasonal LRF Global 13 GPCLRFs maps 2 Lead Centers data 2.5 2.5 IRI, APCC hindcasts 20-30 yrs C3S skill scores T2m, RR, SSTs, MSLP, T850, Z500 Frequency: Monthly Monthy/seasonal LRF Regional T2m, RR 8 RCCs maps 3 RCC-Networks data 30 km Frequency: Quarterly Updates Global GSCU (Trial) El Niño/La Niña Update CLIMATE VARIABILITY TIMESCALE Major circulation features Frequency: Once or twice per year Probabilistic outlook and consensus statement Regional National 19 RCOFs NCOFs T2m, RR A2D Frequency: Annual Annual to Decadal predictions Global GPC-ADCP LC-ADCP global maps variables averaged over year 1 and years 1-5 data time resolution: daily hindcast data T2m, RR, SLP, MOC Updates Global GA2DCU (Concept) Major circulation features PROJECTIONS CLIMATE CHANGE TIMESCALE Climate change projections CMIP5 61 models 20-200 km historical run: 1850-2005 nominal timescale time period: 2100 and beyond time resolution: daily CORDEX Several global/regional models 14 domains 12-50 km nominal timescale time period: until 2100 time resolution: daily 5
Climate Services Toolkit (CST) CST Climate Data Availability, Management, and Mining Information flow Climate Analysis Monitoring PUSH Climate Forecasts Climate Projections RCCs & NMHSs PULL USER INTERFACE Feedback and Requirements Source: Marina Livezey 6
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs provide regional climate products in support of regional and national climate activities Mandatory Functions: Operational Activities for LRF Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring Training in the use of operational RCC products and services Highly Recommended Functions: Climate prediction and projection Non-operational data services Coordination functions Training and capacity building Research and development Two modes of Implementation: fully selfcontained RCCs or distributed-function RCC-Networks http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/rcc/rcc.php 7
Third Pole RCC-Network Proposed Structure (Overall Coordinator: China) Northern TP Node Consortium: China (Lead), Mongolia, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan Southern TP Node Consortium: India (Lead), Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar Western TP Node Consortium: Pakistan (Lead), Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, China 8
RCOFs Worldwide https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/regional-climate-outlook-products 9
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) Coordinating Institution: RCC-Pune (India Meteorological Department) Target Seasons: SW Monsoon (JJAS), NE Monsoon (OND), winter (DJF) Parameters: Rainfall for all seasons. Temperature for OND and DJF Major forcings on the regional climate: ENSO, IOD, Winter and spring Eurasian Snow Cover, Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature during spring season, sea surface temperature patterns over Atlantic Ocean, mid latitude flow pattern north of Asia etc. Potential applications of seasonal outlooks: Agriculture (selection of crops, crop yield forecast), Disaster preparedness and risk reduction (impact of floods and droughts), Public health (disease outbreaks like Malaria, cholera etc.), Energy sector (expected energy demand scenarios), water management (reservoir) etc. RCOF frequency: Physical sessions in April for SW Monsoon & in September for NE Monsoon. Online session in November for winter season (December to February). Sources of funding: Financial support for conducting SASCOF activities so far mainly from WMO through its various funding agencies like the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Environment and Climate Change Canada, etc. Rainfall Climatology for the period 1951 2007 over South Asia. (Data Source: APHRODITE s Water ResourcesHome page: http://www.chikyu.ac.jp/precip/english/ind ex.html ) S. No. Country Main rainfall periods 1 Afghanistan Winter (DJF), Spring (MAM) 2 Bangladesh Pre-monsoon (MAM), summer Monsoon (JJAS) 3 Bhutan Winter (DJF), JJAS (summer monsoon) 4 India Winter (JF) for north India, pre-monsoon for south peninsula and northeast India (MAM), SW Monsoon (JJAS) for most parts of the country and post monsoon (OND) for south Peninsula. 5 Maldives May to October 6 Myanmar Pre-monsoon (AM), Summer monsoon (JJAS), post monsoon (ON). 7 Nepal Winter (DJF), JJAS (summer monsoon) 8 Pakistan Winter (DJF), JAS (summer monsoon) 9 Sri Lanka First inter-monsoon (MA), SW Monsoon (MJJAS), second intermonsoon (ON) Source: D.S. Pai, RCC-Pune
User Involvement To provide a platform for interaction with users of climate services and promote the use of RCOF products, the Forum invites representatives of the user community from climate sensitive user sectors, include agriculture and food security, health, energy, water resources, disaster risk reduction and response, media etc. Some of the main forum meetings were also followed by a joint meeting of climate experts, and practitioners and decision-makers from these user sectors and stake holders from the region. These joint meetings review various issues related to the use of climate information to sector specific applications, sharing the experiences and lessons learned from the applications of previous SASCOF products etc. The meetings also encourage sector experts to develop detailed sector specific risk information including warnings based on the SASCOF products, and communicate to decisionmakers and the public. Special outreach sessions involving media experts are also conducted to develop effective communication strategies. Place & Period Pune, India 23-25 April 2014 Dhaka, Bangladesh 21-22April 2015 Chennai, India 14-15 Oct 2015 Colombo, Sri Lanka. 27-28April 2016 Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar 27-29 September 2016 User Forums conducted in association with SASCOF Session of the SASCOF SASCOF- 5 1 st User Forum for the Water Sector (CSUF- Water) 2 nd CSUF-Water SASCOF- 6 SASCOF- 7 SASCOF- 8 SASCOF- 9 User Forums Conducted 1 st CSUF-Agriculture 3 rd CSUF-Water and 1 st CSUF-Health second CSUF- Agriculture Source: D.S. Pai, RCC-Pune
Way Forward Enhancement of RCC products and services Global RCC Review (12-14 November 2018, Pune, India) Coordinated RCC support to countries in South Asia (RCC-Beijing, RCC-Tokyo, RCC-Pune, TPRCC-Network) Focus on improved national capacities (especially human resources) to access and apply RCC products Expanding SASCOF product portfolio (monitoring, sub-seasonal products, regional climate change, etc.) National CSIS implementation including National Climate Forums Greater and sustained engagement of regional implementation partners (e.g., RIMES) Regional consolidation and complementarity of investments in support of climate services in South Asia Sustained Climate Services User Forums, especially for water, agriculture and health in which some headway has already been made Co-production of climate inputs for decision support
Thank you RKolli@wmo.int