Development and applications of regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany based on DWD s NWP models: Status and outlook Frank Kaspar 1, Michael Borsche 1, Natacha Fery 1, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss 1, Jan D. Keller 1,2, Maarit Lockhoff 3, Deborah Niermann 1, Roland Potthast 1, Thomas Roesch 1,2, Sabrina Wahl 2,3 1) Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany, 2) Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research, Germany, 3) Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn, Germany
Overview è Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research è COSMO-based regional reanalysis è Some application examples è Quality assessment (focus: wind, radiation) ICR5, Rome: F. Kaspar, Requirements for the application of reanalyses 2
The regional reanalysis system based on the COSMO-NWP-model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD) (developed at the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research (HErZ) at University of Bonn) ERA-Interim Reanalysis (T255) COSMO-REA6 (6.2 km) CORDEX EUR-11 Domain Data assimilation More details: http://reanalysis.meteo.uni-bonn.de/ Soil moisture analysis (SMA) Continuous nudging SYNOP, SHIP, PILOT, TEMP, AIREP, AMDAR, ACARS, SST analysis (daily) Snow analysis (6-hourly) Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research - Climate monitoring and diagnostics
COSMO-REA6 3h-aktualisierte Randfelder von ERA-Interim 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 Initialfeld COSMO 00-06 UTC COSMO 06-12 UTC COSMO 12-18 UTC COSMO 18-00 UTC COSMO 00-06 UTC Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse SST Analyse Soil Moisture Analyse Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research - Climate monitoring and diagnostics
COSMO-REA2 è Regional Reanalysis for Germany / Central Europe COSMO-model with 2km resolution Lateral boundary conditions: COSMO-REA6 2007-2014 (8 Bollmeyer 2015 years) Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research - Climate monitoring and diagnostics + Latent heat nudging for radar data.
COSMO-REA2 1h-aktualisierte Randfelder von COSMO-REA6 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 Initialfeld COSMO 00-06 UTC COSMO 06-12 UTC COSMO 12-18 UTC COSMO 18-00 UTC COSMO 00-06 UTC Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Beobachtungen (kontinuierlich) Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse Schnee-Analyse SST Analyse Radar-Daten (LHN) Radar-Daten (LHN) Radar-Daten (LHN) Radar-Daten (LHN) Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research - Climate monitoring and diagnostics
Open data access to selected parameters COSMO-REA6: 1995-2015 2016, 2017 currently produced and evaluated DWD, 10. Feb 2016 Andrea Kaiser-Weiss (KU21) 7
ICR5, Rome: F. Kaspar, Requirements for the application of reanalyses 8
I work with this variable and use / do not use reanalysis data for this TOP5 Atmospheric surface: Air temperature 1212 (75%) Wind speed and direction 1194 (73%) Pressure 1115 (69%) Atmospheric upper air: Temperature 929 (57%) Wind speed and direction 923 (57%) TOP5 Atmospheric surface: Precipitation 895 (55%) 282 (17%) Oceanic surface: Sea-surface temperature 691 (43%) 246 (15%) Terrestrial: River discharge 134 ( 8%) 218 (13%) Atmospheric surface: Surface radiation budget 555 (34%) 210 (13%) Atmospheric upper air: Cloud properties 397 (24%) 199 (12%) see also: Gregow et al.: A worldwide survey concerning reanalysis 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00271.1
Offshore wind farms in Germany s Exclusive economic zone Investments depend on datasets Requirement: Should be based on state-of-the-art knowledge. UERRA è Suggested increase in capacity to 15 GW until 2030. è Federal agencies should provide the data needed by investors for their bids. è Close discussion with user community (with a detailed opinion on requirements) ICR5, Rome: F. Kaspar, Requirements for the application of reanalyses 10
UERRA partners
Comparison of European regional reanalyses on continental / national scale
Correlation depending on temporal resolution for 10m wind German stations è è è Clear added value of regional reanalyses on hourly and daily scale Maximum peak at weekly timescale The use of hourly instead of six hourly reanalysis and observation data can improve the results significantly See also Poster: D. Niermann et al.
Daily cycle of wind speed è Good agreement at 10 m height è Problems >50m 15
è Extreme North Sea storm surges and their impacts: Identification of extreme storm surge events that are extremely unlikely, but physically plausible, and might result in extreme impacts/damages. More details: Talk of Natacha Fery (DWD) et al. 16
COSMO-REA6 2D wind speed & direction at FINO 1 during storm Christian (2013) Storm Christian, 2013 Storm Christian, 2013 More details: Talk of Natacha Fery (DWD) et al. 17
Surface radiation, REA6, comparison with satellite data è Strong bias over the Alps in first comparison with CMSAF data è Second reference (HelioMont) with improved algorithms for the Alpine region lead to smaller bias Michael Borsche (DWD) 18
Average capacity factor for wind energy and photovoltaics in Europe (1995-2015)
COSMO-ENS-REA12 (UERRA contribution of HErZ) è Lateral boundary: ERA-Interim è Area: CORDEX EUR-11 è Spatial resolution: 0.11 gridspacing è è 440x428 grid points 40 vertical levels è Time range: 2006-2010 è Model output: 15 min (2D fields), 60 min (3D fields) è è Data Assimilation: Continuous ensemble nudging of è Radiosondes (PILOT, TEMP) è Aircraft measurements (AIREP, AMDAR, ACARS) è Wind profiler è Station data (SYNOP, SHIP, DRIBU) Additional analysis modules comprise è Snow analysis (every 6 hours) è SST analysis (every 24 hours) è Soil moisture analysis (every 24 hours) See Poster: Lockhoff et al. 21
ICON-based reanalysis see Poster: Rösch et al. Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research - Climate monitoring and diagnostics