Economc Impact Analyss of Newly-Bult Toll Staton Around Jaozhou Bay based on TransCAD Lnln Wang, Junyou Zhang *, Shufeng Wang College of Transportaton, Shandong Unversty of Scence and Technology, Qngdao, Chna. *673199390@qq.com Abstract In vew of the problem of rapd ncrease of traffc congeston n Huanaozhou Bay Expressway, t s proposed to set up toll statons between Yngha Town and Hongshya Town, and to allevate the exstng traffc congeston problems by establshng toll statons. And promote the economc development of Qngdao Jaozhou Economc Development Zone. Combned wth the data of socal and economc base, the road network s modeled wth TransCAD software, and the traffc volume dstrbuton n the future year s predcted accordng to the four-stage method of traffc plannng. The reasonable evaluaton results of the economc development of Jaozhou Economc Development Zone n Qngdao were obtaned by the newly bult toll collecton staton n Jaozhou Bay. Keywords Traffc congeston; TransCAD; four-stage method; economc development. 1. Introducton Jaozhou Bay s the mother's bay of Qngdao. Qngdao has determned the strategc layout of protecton and development of Huan Wan. In the northern part of Jaozhou Bay, Qngdao H-tech Development Zone has been set up, and the Jaozhou Economc and technologcal Development Zone has been set up n the west. At present, Jaozhou Bay rng opened the undersea tunnel, cross-sea brdge, Jaozhou Bay around the hgh-speed, double-product road and other channels. In the early stage, Jaozhou Economc and technologcal Development Zone was a tdal flat to be developed, wth less producton and lvng actvtes. The Jaozhou Bay Expressway s about 20 km from Yngha to Hongshya, and no toll staton has been set up. Wth the constructon of the development zone, Resdental, colleges, producton, logstcs and other economc actvtes are ncreasngly prosperous, Jaozhou Development Zone, the volume of travel surge. In order to promote the economc development of the development zone and facltate transportaton, the Jaozhou branch of the Jaozhou Bay Brdge s expected to be opened to traffc n 2019. In order to optmze the structure of the regonal road network, t s proposed to establsh a toll staton n the Jaozhou Bay Hgh Speed Development Zone from Yngha to Hongshya. It s connected wth the branch lne of the cross-sea brdge to form the traffc trunk network for the development zone to travel abroad. The locaton of the newly bult toll staton needs to be analyzed n combnaton wth the overall plan of the Jaozhou Development Zone, the road network, and other socal and economc data. The analyss of the mpact of new toll booths on local economc development can establsh the traffc allocaton model to compare the traffc volume and economc development forecast before and after the proposed proect, and provde decson support for the government. 255
2. Basc Steps of Traffc Volume Predcton Based on Four-Stage Method To study the mpact of toll booths set up at hgh speed around Jaozhou Bay on the economy of Qngdao H-tech Development Zone and Jaozhou Economc and technologcal Development Zone. Through the establshment of transcad model, ths paper analyzes the effect of addng hgh speed entrance and ext on the traffc accessblty of Jaozhou Bay and the development of Jaozhou Economc Development Zone n Qngdao. The reasonable evaluaton results of the newly bult toll staton around Jaozhou Bay to the economc development of Jaozhou Economc Development Zone n Qngdao are obtaned. The four-stage method of hghway traffc volume predcton manly studes the occurrence and attracton of hghway traffc volume and the relatonshp between hghway traffc volume and socal economy. At the same tme, the elastc coeffcent method s used to predct the hghway traffc volume, whch s the supplement of the four-step model. The overall research thnkng s shown n fgure 1. Trp generaton model Trp generaton model Trp attracton model Trp dstrbuton model Trp mode partton model Traffc Evaluaton and Countermeasures Fg 1. Traffc forecast frame 3. Traffc Forecastng Process Based on TransCAD 3.1 Locaton of the Proposed Toll Staton Accordng to the constructon plan of Jaozhou branch of cross-sea brdge and the plannng of regonal road network, the locaton of new toll staton should be located n Jaozhou Economc Development Zone and form a fast passage wth Jaozhou spur lne through S397 road. The proposed proect area s shown n fgure 2. Fg 2. Proposed proect locaton 256
3.1.1 Compartmentalzaton of Traffc Zones Accordng to the geographcal locaton, socal and economc development, land use nature, road network structure and traffc dstrbuton of the proposed proect, the proect s dvded nto 20 traffc dstrcts on the bass of the areas affected by the proposed proect. Ths ncludes 14 nternal traffc cells and 6 external traffc cells, as shown n fgure 3. Fg 3. Traffc plot partton dagram 3.1.2 Establshment of Road Networks Based on the traffc volume of the proposed proect area and the road network structure of the surroundng area, a new road network model s establshed. The dstrbuton of the road network s shown n fgure 4. Accordng to the functon of TransCAD, two drectons (AB drecton and BA drecton) are created for each road secton. Accordng to the dfferent road grades, the road network s constructed by usng TransCAD lne layer edtng tool. The attrbute felds of road manly nclude road name (name), road desgn speed (speed), road start and end mark (Node), road traffc volume (count), road desgn capacty (capacty), road traffc flow tme (tme) and so on [2]. Fg 4. Road network dstrbuton map 3.2 Traffc Generaton and Attracton Predcton The forecastng of occurrence and attracton of traffc volume s the frst stage of the four-stage forecastng of traffc demand, and t s one of the most basc parts of traffc demand analyss. Traffc trp generaton s forecasted by cross-classfcaton forecastng method, that s, takng famly as the basc forecastng unt, the average travel rate of the famly s counted, and then the correspondng travel rate s multpled by the number of basc unts of the famly. And then through summng up the amount of traffc travel generated by resdents. Traffc attracton refers to all home-based travel and non-home-based termnal travel, the use of traffc attracton rato predcton method, that s, accordng to the travel rate of each type of land area and unt area to predct traffc attracton traffc generaton predcton. 257
3.3 Traffc Dstrbuton Forecastng Traffc dstrbuton predcton s to allocate the predcted total traffc generaton and attracton to dfferent traffc dstrcts to reflect the spatal flow dstrbuton n the small area. The travel dstrbuton model uses gravty model method, gravty model ntroduces the mpedance between traffc areas, can reflect the mpact of land use changes on travel dstrbuton, but also reflect the mpact of changes n transport facltes on travel dstrbuton. Qngdao s a rapdly developng cty, and the land use wll change greatly n the future. Gravty model method can fully reflect the change of the cty[3]. Gravty model method s more comprehensve n traffc dstrbuton predcton, especally ths method emphaszes the nteracton between the local and the whole[4], combned wth the travel characterstcs of resdents n varous dstrcts of Qngdao, gravty model method can obectvely reflect the realty. Formula of gravty model method: T K KPA f R T K K KA K P f f 1 R ( 1,..., n) 1 R ( 1,..., n) s the Traffc volume between and, P s the travel yeld of n traffc dstrct, attracton of traffc dstrct, K, K s the constrant coeffcent of trp yeld and trp attracton, A s the travel s the frcton factor. Accordng to the travel characterstcs of Qngdao resdents and the complexty of the road network, the mpedance functon s used to predct the frcton factor. The PA matrx of predcton results s shown n Table 1. Table 1. PA matrx ID Area Base_P Base_A BALANCE.Base_P BALANCE.Base_P 1 53.91 2160 2560 2160 2502.44 2 46.81 2170 2200 2170 2150.54 3 68.07 2020 2220 2020 2170.09 4 71.92 2702 2582 2702 2523.95 5 65.97 2087 2337 2087 2284.46 6 87.83 2103 2130 2103 2082.11 7 86.29 2803 2873 2803 2808.41 8 126.08 3403 3530 3403 3450.63 9 118.81 2209 2309 2209 2257.09 10 119.4 2708 2708 2708 2647.12 11 118.71 2206 2277 2206 2225.81 12 162.45 2506 2450 2506 2394.92 13 152.81 1777 1797 1777 1756.6 14 159.01 1648 1864 1648 1822.09 15 152.83 1842 1429 1842 1396.87 16 117.25 1707 1878 1707 1827.96 17 73.11 1673 1683 1673 1645.16 18 86.44 1586 1516 1586 1481.92 19 87.89 1971 1999 1971 1954.06 20 20.9 898 809 898 790.81 f R 258
3.4 Traffc Mode Classfcaton The traffc mode dvson s the thrd stage of the four-stage traffc demand forecastng method. Its man purpose s to dvde the traffc volume between dfferent dstrcts nto the dstrbuton of varous traffc modes. Accordng to the "Bay Brdge Traffc Forecast and Analyss report" and the proposed proect around the traffc volume of nvestgaton and determnaton. 3.5 Traffc Allocaton The assgnment of traffc volume s the last stage of the four-step traffc demand model. The purpose of traffc assgnment s to assgn the O-D traffc volume matrx of varous traffc modes to the roads of the traffc road network accordng to a certan method. Fnd out the travel volume of varous travel modes newly generated by the proposed proect, and then convert the new motor vehcle traffc volume. Fnally, the new traffc volume s dstrbuted and dstrbuted n the study area. The traffc assgnment models n TransCAD software nclude all-n-nothng model, stochastc model, ncremental load model, capacty lmtaton model, user equlbrum model, stochastc user equlbrum model and system optmal model. Accordng to the characterstcs of Qngdao road network and the establshment of the model, the user balance model s adopted [5]. The user equlbrum model s based on Wardrop's frst prncple. The core of the model s that the road users wll not shorten the travel tme by changng the path. 4. Comparson and Analyss of The Forecast of the Proposed Proect 4.1 Impact of the Proposed Toll Staton on the Jaozhou Bay Rng Road A toll staton wll be bult between Yngha Town and Hongshya. The toll staton wll be upgraded from east to west. It wll be connected wth the Jaozhou spur Lne n the east and the Julong Interchange Toll Staton at the Shenha Expressway n the west, formng an east-west expressway n the Jaozhou Development Zone. In order to form a convenent dstrbuton channel for the cross-sea brdge, the traffc flow n the servce area can be effectvely attracted to the brdge. At the same tme, the dstance between the brdge and G22 13km (Fg. 5), the densty of the road network becomes reasonable, the capacty of the road network and the level of road servce are also mproved correspondngly, whch further exerts the traffc gudance and radaton drvng role of the sea-crossng brdge to the development of the ntegraton of the two sdes of the Tawan Strats. Fg 5. Crcumacent Jaozhou Bay Hgh Speed Lnk 4.2 Analyss of the Travel Costs of the Proposed Toll Booths The fnal purpose of toll staton constructon s the most effectve use of the brdge, n order to gude and promote the ntegrated development of Jaozhou Bay Expressway. The startng prce of toll 259
collecton staton should be consdered n combnaton wth the southern tunnel and Jaozhou Bay Expressway. The startng prce should be moderate and the adustment of toll prce should follow a gradual and orderly way to avod bg ups and downs. Ths can attract traffc flow to the greatest extent n the early stage, promote the development of the two sdes of the strat, thus further ncrease cross-strat exchanges, formng a vrtuous crcle, the benefts of the cross-sea brdge wll be correspondngly mproved. 4.3 Impact of Proposed Toll Booths on Connectvty of Qngdao Jaozhou Economc Development Zone The drect economc beneft of the Jaozhou Economc Development Zone means that after the completon of the proposed proect, the traffc stuaton of the Jaozhou Economc Development Zone has been mproved, the transportaton cost has been reduced, and the development of the road transport ndustry has been promoted. Stmulate the ncrease n nterregonal passenger and freght traffc generated by the road user benefts for the Jaozhou Industral Park travel convenence. As far as Qngdao port development s concerned, the completon of the proposed proect and the reducton of travel costs can not only strengthen the cooperaton among Qngdao Old Port, Qanwan Port and Ol Port, but also gve full play to the overall lessons of the port. Therefore, t s necessary to make full use of the unque geographcal locaton of the development zone, as well as transportaton, to ensure smooth transportaton of ferres, roads around the Jaozhou Bay and cross-sea brdges, as well as tunnels n Hat. Ths wll play a more postve role n the economc development of Qngdao and the development zone. 5. Prospect After the completon of the proposed toll staton proect, mprove the traffc stuaton of Jaozhou Economc Development Zone, reduce transport costs, promote the development of the road transport ndustry, stmulate the ncrease n nterregonal passenger and freght traffc generated by the road user benefts. On ths bass, t s suggested to further optmze the expressway network around Jaozhou Bay and upgrade S395 nto a four-lane expressway, so as to mprove the road capacty of S395, at the same tme, transform the Yngha overpass and mprove the traffc condtons and nvestment envronment n the servce area. Strengthenng the role of economc and cultural radaton of the central cty has made mportant contrbutons to the macroeconomc growth, ndustral structure adustment and optmzaton of the layout, urbanzaton development of the areas along the lne, and has produced enormous economc benefts and postve socal mpact. 6. Concluson Takng the proposed toll staton n Huanaozhou Bay as an example, ths paper studes the postve mpact on Qngdao's economc development, regonal traffc convenence and road connectvty after the completon of the toll staton. On the one hand, n order to expand the economc hnterland of Qngdao, especally strengthen the economc tes wth Rzhao, the proposed Jaozhou Bay hgh-speed toll staton provdes a transport carrer for promotng the ntegraton of Qngha-Wezhao and Japan. On the other hand, promotng the economc development of Jaozhou Economc Development Zone plays a vtal role n ensurng the employment of people along the route and facltatng the travel of employees. References [1] Z. Le, L. Xaoyong. Traffc Demand Predctng n Traffc Impact Analyss Based on TransCAD [J]. Traffc Standardzaton, 2014, 42 (19): 44-48. [2] Y. Ln, S. Guozhuang. Analyss on the Influencng Factors for R econstructed Hghway Traffc Flow Forecastng Based on TransCAD [J]. Forest Engneerng, 2014, 30 (04): 141-146. 260
[3] Y. Shan, N. Aqang. Applcaton of TransCAD Software n Traffc Volume Analyss and Forecast of Hghway Constructon Proect [J]. Chnese and foregn hghways, 2011, 31 (06): 273-276. [4] W. Chunle,Ch. Yuln. Method of Traffc Impact Analyss Based on TransCAD Software. Transportaton and computer, 2008 (03): 79-82. [5] S. Ru, Y. Kefe,Zheng Jan. The Applcaton of TransCAD n the Four-Stage Traffc Demand Predctng [J]. Transportaton Scence and Technology and economy, 2011, 13 (01):79-81. 261