Oxford-Milton Keynes- Cambridge Growth Corridor Symposium Professor Pete Tyler Lucy Cavendish College pt23@cam.ac.uk 21 November 2018
The Objective In his letter of 16 th March 2016 to Lord Adonis (National Infrastructure Commission), the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, highlighted the need for a more detailed review to: make recommendations to maximise the potential of the Cambridge Milton Keynes Oxford corridor as a single, knowledge-intensive cluster that competes on the global stage and to look at the priority infrastructure improvements needed, and assess the economic case for which investments would generate the most growth.
The Geography Greater Northampton Sub-area Greater Oxford and Swindon Sub-area Greater Cambridge and Northern Hertfordshire Subarea Milton Keynes, Luton, Bedfordshire, Aylesbury Vale Sub-area
Wish to consider two key elements u The potential for growth u The potential impact on the geography of growth in the United Kingdom
Determinants of City Economic Performance 5
Transport (Rail Connectivity, 2013) Knowledge and Skills (Share of High Skilled Workers, 2013) Energy (Electricity MPANs, 2013) Capital Investment (Investment- Output Ratio, 2013) Industrial Structure (Krugman Specialisation Index, 2013) Water Supply Infrastructure Digital (ICT Connectivity, 2013) Waste Infrastructur e LAD Productivity Level ( 2012m, GVA per worker, 2013) Demographics (Dependency Ratio, 2013) Business Environment (Employment Density, 2013)
Employment and Output Growth Across 63 UK Cities, 1981-2013, Grouped into North (Red) and South (Blue) (Gardiner, Martin and Tyler, 2015).
Cambridgeshire and other major UK Bioscience Clusters in International Perspective, 2011 (OECD) Total Life Science Patents per 10,000 Patents w o r k i n g a g e population Cambridgeshire, UK 123.4 2.95 Inner London (West), UK 101.2 1.20 Oxfordshire, UK 96.3 2.21 Hertfordshire, UK 45.2 0.61 Inner London (East), UK 68.8 0.30 San Diego, USA 761.2 3.50 Boston USA 1850.0 3.24 San Jose-San Francisco, USA 1636.1 2.41 Rayleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, USA 273.2 1.22 Seattle-Bellvue-Everett, USA 236.4 0.71 Berlin, Germany 176.3 0.80 Munich, Germany 190.3 0.96
The Scale of UK Spatial Imbalance 9
International Comparision of Regional (NUTS1) GVA Disparities (Source: Cambridge Econometrics and Martin et al (2014))
References u u u u u Gardiner, B, Martin, R and Tyler, P. (2013). Spatially Unbalanced Growth in the British Economy. Journal of Economic Geography. Gardiner, B, Martin, R and Tyler, P (2014). The Evolving Economic Performance of UK Cities, Foresight, Office of Science. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-cities-evolving-economic-performanceof-uk-cities Martin, R, Sunley, S, Tyler, P and Gardiner, B (2016). Divergent Cities in Post-Industrial Britain. Cambridge J Regions Econ Soc first published online May 9, 2016. doi:10.1093/cjres/rsw005. http://cjres.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/recent Martin R., Pike A., Tyler P. and Gardiner B (2015). Spatially Rebalancing the UK Economy: Towards a New Policy Model? Regional Studies. pages 342-357. Martin, R, Sunley, S, Evenhuis, E, Gardiner, B and Tyler, P. Structural Change and Productivity Growth in Cities. Journal of Economic Geography, March 2018. Martin R., Sunley P, Tyler, P and Gardiner B. 2016. How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure. Regional Studies. Pgs 561-585. Tyler, P, Martin, R, Sunley,S and Gardiner, B. 2017.Growing Apart? Structural Transformation and the Uneven Development of British Cities. Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society. Professor Peter Tyler pt23@cam.ac.uk 11
City Evolutions (http://www.cityevolutions.org.uk/) Structural Transformation, Adaptability and City Economic Evolution An ESRC-Funded Project (ES/N0006135/1), University of Cambridge, UK (www.cityevolutions.org.uk)
Mistral ITRC (ESPRC Programme Grant). Aim: To develop and demonstrate a new generation of simulation models and tools to inform the analysis, planning and design of national infrastructure Ambition: Enabling a revolution in the strategic analysis of national infrastructure provision in the UK whilst at the same time becoming an international landmark programme recognised for novelty, research excellence and impact.