28 1 Vol. 28 No. 1 2015 1 Research of Finance and Education Jan. 2015 1 1 2 1. 200241 2. 9700AV 1998-2010 30 F830 A 2095-0098 2015 01-0043 - 010 Schumpeter 1911 2014-09 - 19 No. 40671074 2011 3010 1987-1983 -
44 2015 20 60 Goldsmith 1969 2 Shaw Mckinnon 1973 3-4 King Levine 1993 5 Pagno 1993 6 AK Levin Loayza Beck 2000 7 20 90 Bernat 1996 8 Rey Montouri 1999 9 Fingleton López - Bazo 2006 10 SLM SEM SDM Greene 2005 11 1999 12 2003 13 2004 14 1979-2000 2013 15 30 1998 ~ 2010 2006 16 2009 17 2009 18 2010 19 2011 20
1 45 1. Pagno 1993 6 AK Y = AK ⑴ Y GDP K A GDP i 30 t 1 LnY it = c + αlnb it + βlns it + γlni it + ξ it 2 2 c α β γ Y B S I ξ it 2. 1997 1998 1998-2010 1998-2010 GDP 1998-2010 Wind Anselin 2008 21 LeSage & Pace 2009 22 Spatial Durbin model Elhorst 2009 23 Hausman 1. Spatial lag model SLM 24
46 2015 y it + δ N j = 1 W ij y jt + α + X it β + μ i + λ t + ε it 3 y it i t i = 1 N t = 1 T j W ij y jt y it y jt W ij N N δ α X it β X it μ i λ i ε it 0 σ 2 2. Spatial error model SEM y it = α + X it β + μ i + λ t + it it = ρ N W ij it + ε it 4 j = 1 ρ 3 it 3. 2013 25 Allers and Elhorst 2005 26 Greene 2005 11 SLM SEM SDM Elhorst and Freret 2009 22 Elhorst 2010 27 2010 28 y it = δ N j = 1 W ij y it + α + X it β + N j = 1 W ij X ijt θ + μ i + λ t + ε it 5 β θ K 1 θ H 0 θ = 0 H 0 θ + δβ = 0 4. LeSage Pace 2009 22 β
1 47 I n y = k Y = ρwy + Xβ + WXθ + l n α + ε + ρw Y = Xβ + WXθ + τ n α + ε r = 1 S r W x r S r W = V W I n β r + V W τ n α + V W ε + Wθ r 6 V W = I n - ρw -1 = I n + ρw + ρw 2 + ρw 3 + 7 7 n y 1 S r W 11 S r W 12 S r W 1n x 1r y 2 S r W 21 S r W 22 S r W 2n x 2r + V W l n α + V W ε 8 y S r W n1 S r W n2 S r W x n nn S r W nr M r total = n -1 l' n S r W l n M r direct = n -1 tr S r W M r indirect = M r total - M r direct 2006 29 Delaunay k k i k 1 0 4 Elhorst 2012 Wald Wald Wald 1 1 Wald P Wald_spatial_lag 38. 1686 0. 0000 Wald_spatial_error 32. 5047 0. 0000 1 Wald_spatial_lag 1% Wald_spatial_ lag Wald_spatial_error SDM Hausman Hausman Hausman 29. 0282 27. 4086 1% 9
48 2015 PLS Panel Least Squares PLS SLM SEM SDM 2 2 PLS SLM SEM SDM PLS SLM SEM SDM LnB 1. 0401 *** 0. 1866 *** 0. 2171 *** 0. 2087 *** 0. 0181 0. 0293 0. 0293 0. 0274 LnS - 0. 1366 *** 0. 0492 *** 0. 0478 *** 0. 0513 *** 0. 0198 0. 0133 0. 0130 0. 0121 LnI 0. 1294 *** 0. 1195 *** 0. 1195 *** 0. 1092 *** 0. 0205 0. 0295 0. 0297 0. 0274 W* LnB - 0. 4247 *** 0. 0696 W* LnS 0. 0684 *** 0. 0289 W* LnI 0. 1921 ** 0. 0582 δ 0. 2333 *** 0. 1720 ** ρ 0. 0634 0. 0682 0. 3227 *** 0. 0642 R 2 0. 9290 0. 9951 0. 9949 0. 9956 Log - likelihood - 54. 2617 464. 6350 466. 5400 484. 8812 *** 1% ** 5% * 10% 2 SLM SEM SDM 0. 9956 0. 9949 PLS Log - likelihood SLM SEM 1% SLM SEM OLS SLM SEM SLM SEM SDM 2 SDM SDM PLM SLM SEM 2 Wald SDM SDM 2 SDM W* LnY δ 5% SLM
1 49 1% 0. 2087 1% 0. 2087% W* LnB - 0. 4247 W* LnS W* LnI 0. 1921 0. 0689 3 P LnB 0. 1979 0. 0000 LnS 0. 0536 0. 0001 LnI 0. 1162 0. 0002 P LnB - 0. 4649 0. 0000 LnS 0. 0909 0. 0139 LnI 0. 2492 0. 0012 P LnB - 0. 2670 0. 0088 LnS 0. 1445 0. 0009 LnI 0. 3654 0. 0000 3 0. 1979 0. 0536 0. 1162 PLS 0. 0205 0. 0028-0. 0207 SDM 0. 2087 0. 0108-0. 0186-5. 46% 0. 0023 0. 0070 4. 29% 6. 02% 0 234. 91% 169. 59% 214. 46% 4 SDM
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52 2015 A Study of Financial Support and Economic Growth Based on the Spatial Panel Durbin Model BAI Ling 1 JIANG Lei 2 1. The Key Lab of Geographic Information Science Chinese Ministry of Education East China Normal University Shanghai 200241 China 2. Faculty of Spatial Sciences University of Groningen Groningen 9700AV the Netherlands Abstract Regional economic growth depends heavily on financial system and financial support for regional e- conomic development of China has rendered great space differences. The financial support system is divided into three dimensions which are banking securities and insurance sectors. The effect of financial support system on the economic growth of 30 provinces in mainland China has been analyzed from 1998 to 2010 by employing the Spatial Panel Durbin Model. The results show that the financial support system indicated by the balance of bank loans stock market capitalization and premium income plays a positive role in promoting economic growth but the contributions of the three for economic growth have significant difference the banking sector indicated by the balance of bank loans is the largest then followed by insurance sector indicated by the total premium income the smallest is securities sector indicated by stock market capitalization. The financial system support for regional economic growth shows competition and spillover effects the banking sector presents competition effect whereas securities sector and insurance sector show spillover effects. Finally order to heighten the whole level of economic development in China the policies and recommendations of financial reform were proposed. Key words spatial panel durbin mode financial support economic growth competition and spillover effects