IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY Khalid Abdul Rahim A World Leader in New Tropical Agriculture
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY Khalid Abdul Rahim Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia
INTRODUCTION Surah 41 Al-Fussilat, verse 12 Then He completed and finished from their creation (as) seven heavens in two Days and He made in each heaven its affair. And We adorned the nearest (lowest) heaven with lamps (stars) to be an adornment as well as to guard (from the devils by using them as missiles against the devils). Such is the Decree of Him the All-Mighty, the All-Knower.
THE 7 HEAVENS
7 LAYERS OF ATMOSPHERE 1. Troposphere 2. Stratosphere 3. Ozonosphere 4. Mesosphere 5. Thermosphere 6. Ionosphere 7. Exosphere
GLOBAL WARMING PROBLEM
GLOBAL WARMING PROBLEM Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) The six greenhouse gases specified in the Kyoto Protocol
greenhouse gases Figure 1: Annual Greenhouse Gas Emission by Sector Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/greenhouse_gas
greenhouse gases
greenhouse gases
greenhouse gases
INITIATIVES TO MITIGATE GLOBAL WARMING Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Established at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), known as the Earth s Summit, in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992
EFFECTS ON GRAIN PRODUCTION Table 1. Estimated Percentage of Grain Production Changes from Climate Change Scenario World Developed Countries Developing Countries (Asia, Africa, Latin America) No offsetting effects considered -11 to -20-4 to -24-14 to -16 Including CO2 fertilization effect -1 to -8-4 to +11-9 to -11 Including CO2 fertilization and Modest farmer adaptation 0 to -5 +2 to +11-9 to -13 Including CO2 fertilization and more ambitious farmer adaptation -2 to +1 +4 to +14-6 to -7 Source: 1996 IPCC Report.
Impact of Climate Change Scenarios on Agriculture, Forestry and Ecosystems P h e n om en o n a a n d d i r e c ti o n o f t r en d O ve r m o st l a n d a re a s, w a r m e r a n d fe w e r c o l d d a y s a n d n i g ht s, w ar m e r a n d m or e fr e q ue n t ho t d a ys a n d n ig h t s W a rm s p e ll s / h e a t w av e s. F r e qu e n c y i n c r ea s e s o ve r m o s t l a nd a r e a s H ea v y p r e c ip i t a ti o n e v e nt s. F r e qu e n c y i n c r ea s e s o ve r m o s t a re a s A re a a f fe c t e d b y d ro u gh t i nc r e a se s In t e ns e t r op i c a l c yc l o n e a c t i v it y i nc r e a se s In c re as e d in c i d e n c e of e x t re m e h ig h s e a le v e l ( e xc l u d e s t s u na m i s ) d L ik e l ih o od o f f u tu r e t r e n d s b a se d o n p r oj e c ti o n s f or 2 1 s t c e n t u r y u si n g S R E S b s ce n a r io s A g r i c u l tu r e, fo r e s t r y a n d e c o s y st e m s V i r tu a l l y c e rt a i n c In c re a s e d yi e l d s i n c ol d e r e nv i ro n m e n t s; d e c re a se d y i el d s in w a rm e r e n vi r o nm e n ts ; in c r e a se d i n se c t o ut b re a k s V e r y l i ke l y R e du c e d yi e l ds i n w a rm e r re g i on s d u e t o h e a t s t re ss ; in c r e a se d d a n ge r o f w i l d fi r e V e r y l i ke l y D a m a g e t o c ro p s ; s oi l e r os i on, in a b i li t y to c u l t iv a t e l a n d d u e t o w a t e r lo g g in g o f so i ls L i ke l y L a nd de gr a da t i o n; lo w e r yi e l d s / c ro p d a m a ge a n d f a i lu r e ; in c r e a se d l i ve s to c k d e a t hs ; in c r e a se d ri s k of w i l df i re L i ke l y D a m a g e t o cr o ps ; w i n d t hr o w (u p ro o ti n g ) of t r e e s; d a m a ge t o c or a l r ee f s L i ke l y e S a l i n is a ti o n o f i r ri g at i o n w a te r, e s t ua r i e s a n d f re s h- w a t e r s y st e m s Source: 2007 IPCC Assessment Report
SPATIAL IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Table 3.docx
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FUNCTION Y t = A t f (K t, L t, N t ) where Y t is the value added in the agricultural sector in year t K t, capital, L t labor, N t land used in period t. A t is a coefficient that denotes the level of technology, usually called total factor productivity or Solow residual. (Solow, 1957) Hayami and Ruttan (1971) estimated a constant returns to scale (Cobb- Douglas) production function for agriculture using data for 38 countries, but they used more than these three factors.
SECTORAL PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS Jorgenson et al (1987) estimated a constant returns to scale production function for 45 USA sectors, one of which is agriculture, but they used only two factors of production capital and labor.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION FUNCTION weather and climate are still key factors in agricultural productivity, despite technological advances such as improved crop varieties and irrigation systems Y t = A t f (K t, L t, N t, Z t, ) where Z t factors is a vector of climate and weather
PREVIOUS STUDIES Gregory et al. (2002) reductions in wheat and rice yields of about 5% C 1 rise of temperature above 32 C. these reductions in yield due to temperature offset the increase in yield due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration.
PREVIOUS STUDIES Amthor (2001); Fuhrer (2003); Long et al. (2005) nutrient limitations, pollutants and further interactions with climatic factors offset the benefits of CO 2 fertilization on growth and yield of crop plants.
PREVIOUS STUDIES Jones & Thornton (2003) an overall reduction of 10% for 2055 in Africa and Latin America (using predicted climate data from the HadCM2 model).
PREVIOUS STUDIES Fischer G, Shah M, Tubiello F, van Velhuizen H. (2005). climate change would benefit the developed countries more than the developing countries
IMPLICATIONS ON FOOD SECURITY situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO, 2002) Availability Utilization Accessibility Stability
CONCLUSION some countries benefit some countries may struggle to adapt agricultural trade may ensure that food is available for the world population economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food anticipate and adapt, or even reform farming to maximize agricultural production consumer preferences change.
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