DOI:10.13577/j.jnd.2012.0306 21 3 2012 6 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Vol. 21 No. 3 Jun. 2012 1004-4574 2012 03-0036 - 07 1 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 1. 100875 2. 100875 3. - 100875 1951-2008 58 187 3 DEM 3 3 - - - - - - 3 P444 A Characteristic analysis of typhoon disaster chains in the Yangtze River Delta region of China SHUAI Jiabing 1 2 XU Wei 1 2 3 SHI Peijun 1 3 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster Ministry of Education of China Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China 3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China 2 Abstract Based on the frequency of historical typhoons the typhoon tracks that struck the Yangtze River Delta region were divided into three main types westward traverse and northward and one special track in this paper. Then with the digital elevation model DEM data and geographical environment the Yangtze River Delta region was divided into three areas coastal area in the east hilly area in the south and plain area in the north. Finally the characteristics of typhoon disaster chains in the combinations of typhoon tracks and environment were analyzed with the typical cases of Ranan Winnie and Agnes. Results show that typhoon-strong wind-high wave / storm surge disaster chain are easily to form in the coastal area typhoon-rainstorm-flash flood landslide and debris flow disaster chain are easily to form in the hilly area and typhoon-rainstorm-plain flood and inundation disaster chain are easily to form in the plain area. The westward type of typhoon mainly affects the coastal area and the hilly area is prone to induce the relative typhoon disaster chain in these two areas The traverse typhone mainly affect the whole Yangtze River Delta region and would cause the above mentioned three chains and the northward typhoon mainly affect the coastal area and would easily induce high wave or storm surge disasters. Key words typhoon disaster chain hazard hazard-formative environment the Yangtze River Delta region 2010-10 - 18 2011-04 - 07 2008BAK50B07 40821140354 1987 -. E-mail jiabings2010@ gmail. com
3 37 1991 1 2 2002 4 2-3 - 4 5 6 1988-2004 233. 5 7 Kerry Emanuel 8-9 Vickery 10 Jonas Rumpf 11 12 13 14 15 16 - - - - 17 18 30 7 8 19 2 16 - - - - - - 3 1 1. 1 DEM 1951-2008 JMA 1. 2 7 20 1976 7 1976-2008 7 1951-1975 58 187 2 2. 1 6 7 8 9 19 4 187 110 E - 170 E 5 N - 47 N 1 1 2580 43 2. 75 5. 45 1 118 E 25 N 125 E 31 N 130 E 18 N 1951-2008 4 3 1 1 Ⅰ 59 31. 6% 4
38 21 15-25 N 2 Ⅱ 33 17. 6% 27-32 N 3 Ⅲ 84 44. 9% 15-25 N 62 126 E 22 121 E 3 3 1 11 5. 9% Fig. 1 1 3 Three main categories of tracks of typhoon striking the Yangtze River Delta region 2. 2 1 2. 2. 1 21 10 km 10 km 22 DEM 2 2 DEM > Fig. 2 Demarcation of typhoon disaster-pregnant 200 m > 5 environment in the Yangtze River Delta region
3 39 2 3 2. 2. 2 1 1 2 19 23-24 - - 3 Table 1 1 Typhoon disaster chain in sub-region 3 3. 1 - - - 2004 14 3 8 8 20 8 10 5 12 20 950 hpa 17 25-27 164 24 1 299 75 765 6. 43 391. 9 hm 2 579 3 342 km 181. 28 100 3. 2 3 - - - - -
40 21 9711 3 1997 8 10 9711 18 m /s 8 18 21 30 960 hpa 40 m /s 28-29 9711 10 75 1 214 2 167 3 457 207 18 147 198 3. 3 - - - - 8114 3 8114 8 27 2 100 km 30 08 9 1 08 30. 4 N 123. 1 E 8114 28 8114 30 951 467 hm 2 170 t 120 113 20. 7 hm 2 42 8114 JMA JMA 0413 CMA 0414 JMA 9713 CMA 9711 JMA 8118 CMA 8114 Fig. 3 3 0414 9711 8114 Tracks of typhoons Ranan Winnie and Agnes 4 1 1951-2008 3
3 41 60 a 3 2 3 10 km DEM DEM > 200 m > 5 3 - - - - - - 4 3 3 - - - - 2 - - 3 5 1. J. 1991 37-42. SHI Peijun. On the theory of disaster research and its practice J. Journal of Nanjing University Natural Sciences 1991 Research on natural disasters album 37-42. in Chinese 2. J. 2002 11 3 1-9. SHI Peijun. Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics J. Journal of Natural Disasters 2002 11 3 1-9. in Chinese 3. J. 2008 23 1 1-5. LI Ming TANG Hongmei YE Siqiao. Research on chain rule of typical geological disaster J. Journal of Catastrophology 2008 23 1 1-5. in Chinese 4. J. 2006 15 5 148-153. LI Tianqi ZHAO Zhendong. Research on earthquake disaster chain of energy supply systems J. Journal of Natural Disasters 2006 15 5 148-153. in Chinese 5. J. 2007 14 6 11-23. HAN Jinliang WU Shuren WANG Huabin. Preliminary study on geological hazard chains J. Earth Science Frontiers 2007 14 6 11-23. in Chinese 6. J. 2004 27 2 89-93. YIN Shubin. On silt deposit and disastrous chains originated from silt deposit in Dongting Lake Area J. Journal of Natural Science of Hunan Normal University 2004 27 2 89-93. in Chinese 7. M. 2008. CHEN Yong SHI Peijun. Natural Disasters M. Beijing Beijing Normal University Press 2008. in Chinese 8 Emanuel K. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years J. Nature 2005 436 686-688. 9 Emanuel K Ravela S Vivant E Risi C. A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment J. American Meteorological Society 2006 299-314. 10 Vickery P J Skerlj P F Twisdale L A. Simulation of hurricane risk in the U. S. using empirical track model J. J. Struct Eng 2000 126 1222-1237. 11 Rumpf J Weindl H Hoppe P et al. Stochastic modelling of tropical cyclone tracks J. Math Meth Oper Res 2007 66 1-18. 12. J. 2004 13 3 146-151. ZHOU Junhua SHI Peijun FAN Yida et al. Risk analysis of tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific J. Journal of Natural Disasters 2004 13 3 146-151. in Chinese 13. J. 2002 11 1 34-43. DING Yan SHI Peijun. Fuzzy risk assessment model of typhoon hazard J. Journal of Natural Disasters 2002 11 1 34-43. in Chinese 14. 50 J. 2007 22 4 71-76. MENG Fei KANG Jiancheng LI Weijiang et al. Analysis and evaluation of typhoon disasters in Shanghai in past 50 years J. Journal of
42 21 Catastrophology 2007 22 4 71-76. in Chinese 15. J. 1995 1 4 84-91. LIANG Biqi LIANG Jingping WEN Zhiping. Study of typhoon disasters and its affects in China J. Journal of Natural Disasters 1995 1 4 84-91. in Chinese 16. 2005 J. 2007 43 2 203-208 CHEN Xiang CHEN Jing WANG Jing ai. Analysis on typhoon disaster chain in Fujian a case study of typhoon Longwang in 2005 J. Journal of Beijing Normal University Natural Science 2007 43 2 203-208. in Chinese 17. J. 2002 17 2 82-87. WU Jinbing. A discussion on disaster chain in Yunnan Guangxi Guangdong Fujian and Taiwan J. Journal of Catastrophology 2002 17 2 82-87. in Chinese 18. EB /OL.. 2010-06 2011-04 - 10. http / /www. sdpc. gov. cn / zcfb / zcfbtz /2010tz / W020100622527425024197. pdf. National development and reform commission of China. The Yangtze River delta regional planning EB /OL. Beijing National development and reform commission of China. 2010-06 2011-04 - 10. http / /www. sdpc. gov. cn /zcfb /zcfbtz /2010tz /W020100622527425024197. pdf. in Chinese 19. M. 1979 22. CHEN Lianshou. Overview of Typhoons in Northwestern Pacific M. Beijing Science Press 1979 22. in Chinese 20. D. 2001. ZHUANG Yuexuan. The Wind Speed Distribution in Taiwan D. Taiwan National Central University 2001. in Chinese 21. D. 1997. YANG Guishan. The Coastal Environments Change and Regional Responses to it in China D. Naijing Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology Chinese Academy of Sciences CAS 1997. in Chinese 22. M. 2007 15. SHE Zhixiang LUO Yongming MA Yijie et al. The Resources and Environment of Water - land and Sustainability of the Yangtze River Delta M. Beijing Science Press 2007 15. in Chinese 23. J. 2009 18 1 180-186. TAO Yun TANG Chuan DUAN Xu. Landslide and debris flow hazards in Yunnan and their relationship with precipitation characteristics J. Journal of Natural Disasters 2009 18 1 180-186. in Chinese 24. J. 2003 22 83-89. YU Shuhua. Analyses on spatial - timporal characteristics of mud - rock flow and landslip in Sichuan Basin and its meteorological cause J. Plateau Meteorology 2003 22 S 83-89. in Chinese 25. 2005 M. 2006. China Meteorological Administration. Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China 2005 M. Beijing China Meteorological Press 2006. in Chinese 26. M. 2005 8. YIN Kunlong ZHANG Guirong GONG Rixiang et al. Study on Abrupt Geological Hazards for Early - warning and Prediction in Zhejiang Province M. Wuhan China University of Geosciences Press 2005 8. in Chinese 27. 0414 J. 2006 23 2 79-85. HAN Xiaoyan ZHANG Zhao. The analyzing and summarizing of huge storm surge No14 Ranarim in 2004 J. Marine Forecasts 2006 23 2 79-85. in Chinese 28. M. 2006 11. WEN Kegang. National Meteorological Disaster Ceremony in China Zhejiang Volume M. Beijing China Meteorological Press 2006 11. in Chinese 29. M. 2008. DING Yihui. National Meteorological Disaster Ceremony in China Comprehensive Volume M. Beijing China Meteorological Press 2008. in Chinese 30. J. 1986 4 2 153-164. TANG Xiaochun. The influence of the Agnes typhoon of 1981 on the coast of Jiangsu China J. Journal of Southwest China Normal University Natural Science 1986 4 2 153-164. in Chinese