Global Land Project: major scientific questions for coupled modelling Richard Aspinall Macaulay Land Use Research Institute and GLP Nodal Office on Integration and Modelling Aberdeen, Scotland NATO Advanced Workshop, NEESPI Regional Non-boreal Europe Meeting, Odessa, Ukraine, August 23-28, 2008
Global Land Project 1. Dynamics of land systems 2. Consequences of land system changes 3. Integrating analysis and modelling for land sustainability Figure 4: GLP analytical structure GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.
GLP and Earth system science
Coupled models Land systems as coupled human and environmental system Dynamics based on processes Human and environmental system processes Understanding the processes that couple the human and environmental systems Understanding variables that couple the human and environmental systems
Outline Representing and modelling land change based on processes rather than drivers/factors Linking land cover and land use Mapping and modelling land functions 6
Outline Representing and modelling land change based on processes rather than drivers/factors Social, Economic, Political and Cultural Drivers to Processes decision making Link to environmental processes Linking land cover and land use land management Impact on Environmental processes - change, not in cover or use Mapping and Modelling Land Functions Ecosystem Services: Link to system processes; spatial, temporal and organisational structures; and scalar and temporal dynamics 7
Land systems Land systems recognised as coupled human and environmental systems: Interdependent reciprocal causal relationships
Dynamic Land Transitions Dynamic Land Transitions Figure 2. The continuum of states resulting from the interactions between societal and natural dynamics. GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.
Representing and modelling land change based on processes rather than drivers/factors
A brief history: from case studies towards integrative models 1. Develop case studies that identify sequences and histories of land changes What happens? 2. Compare case studies to determine the different states of land systems and driving factors Are there generalisations? 3. Develop an understanding of the processes operating and determine the relations that are applicable What controls land systems and land system change?
Meta-analysis: comparing case studies Demographic factors Economic factors Technological factors Political and Institutional factors Cultural or Sociopolitical factors Geist, H. J. and Lambin, E. F. (2001) What drives tropical deforestation? A meta-analysis fo proximate and underlying causes of deforestation based on subnational case study evidence. LUCC Report Series no. 4.
Technological change: Crop breeding: increased yield t/ha 8 6 4 2 Barley 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 t/ha t/ha 6 Oats 5 4 2 1 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 10 Wheat 8 6 4 2 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data: Annual Agricultural (June) Census for Scotland - 1866-2007
Technological change: Mechanisation of agriculture Horses for Agricultural Use 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Combines + Tractors 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Data: Annual Agricultural (June) Census for Scotland - 1866-2007
Structural/Policy drivers: Common Agricultural Policy 160000 Area sown to Wheat, Scotland Wheat.ha 120000 80000 Price support: 1980s 40000 0 90000 60000 30000 0 Setaside + BareFallow.ha120000 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Bare Fallow + Set aside, Scotland Set-aside introduced to reduce overproduction, 1988 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Data: Annual Agricultural (June) Census for Scotland - 1866-2007
Factors/Drivers as processes Understand drivers as processes A range of processes Processes connect to decision-making Demographic Births, Deaths, Migration, Economic Markets, Prices, Regulation Decision-making has Technological Innovation, diffusion, adoption a central role Policy and Institutional: Policy creation, Regulation Cultural and Socio-Political Choices, decisions, behaviours
Factors/Drivers as Processes decision-making and feedbacks Technological Innovation, diffusion, adoption Policy and Institutional: Policy creation, Regulation Cultural and Socio-Political Choices, decisions, behaviours Human Systems Decision-making Preferences, Behaviours Attitudes, Norms, Habits Values, Beliefs Individual/Household/Group Choices and Decisions Economic Markets, Prices, Regulation Demographic Births, Deaths, Migration, Land Use
Coupled process models? Human System Structural: Institutional and Policy Technological Cultural Land Use Economic Demographic Environmental System Earth Systems Land Cover Climate Systems Hydrological Systems Ecological Systems
Process dynamics Biophysical systems Species dispersal Material cycles Soil formation etc Human systems Innovation Diffusion Decision-making etc
Linking land cover and land use
Land use and land cover Land use and land cover important variables for coupling human and environmental systems Sometimes treated as equivalent (LUCC)
Definitions: Cover and Use Land Cover Describes the land surface (e.g. forest) (what it is) Land Use The utilization of the land, including land management (e.g. forestry) (what we do with it)
What is a forest? From Wadsworth et al. (in press), Journal of Land Use Science Data from: Gyde Lund, H. (2005) Definitions of Forest, Deforestation, Afforestation, and Reforestation. Forest Information Series, Gainesville, VA. http://home.comcast.net/~gyde/defpaper.htm
Land use and management Figure 4: GLP analytical structure GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.
Land management
Animals and animal husbandry
Agriculture: plants and animals Foley et al Science 2005
Nitrogen: Cattle, horse, sheep manure, inorganic fertilizer 300000000 Inorganic fertilizer barley, oats, wheat Cattle, horse, sheep manure 250000000 N (kg) 200000000 150000000 100000000 50000000 0 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Year Data: Based on Annual Agricultural (June) Census for Scotland - 1866-2007 and annual fertiliser application rates
Land management Changes in, and types of, land management are important, especially in relation to land function (e.g. provision of ecosystem services)
Mapping and modelling land functions 30
Land Cover Land Cover, Use and Function Describes the land surface (e.g. forest) what it is Land Use Intended utilization of the land, including land management (e.g. forestry) what we do with it Land Function Capacity of the land to provide goods and services (intended and unintended) how it works
Ecosystem Goods and Services Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Land functions Economic Resource and non-land based industries and services Land based production Infrastructure Mobility and transport Housing Places of work Social Provision of work Human health Recreation Cultural-Landscape identity, scenery, cultural heritage Community Environmental Provision of biotic and abiotic resources Support for, and provision, of habitat Maintenance of ecosystem/earth system processes Land use Land function Land cover After S. Petit et al
Dynamic Land Transitions Dynamic Land Transitions Figure 2. The continuum of states resulting from the interactions between societal and natural dynamics. GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.
Coupled processes models? Human System Technological Cultural Structural: Institutional and Policy Land Use management Economic Demographic Environmental System Earth Systems Land Function Land Cover Climate Systems Hydrological Systems Ecological Systems
Integrating these issues? Representing and modelling land change based on processes rather than drivers/factors Linking land cover and land use Mapping and modelling land functions
Land Function: Environmental (ecosystem Human Land Land services) system cover use Weather Energy and Climate Air quality Topography Moorland Visual Economic Geology Recreation Health Historical Vegetation Amenity Fuel and Energy ForestHousing Shelter Housing Forestry Water Transport Water Construction materials Land management Bare Soil ground Land Social Water Quality Soil Quality Farming Grass use Fishing Land management Land use Fauna systems Food Fibre Microbes Food Culture Biodiversity Conservation Hedgerow and fence Land Recreation cover 1. What type of land system is this? 2. How can we describe this land system? 3. How does this land system work? 4. Is this land system working well is it sustainable? 5. How do we value this land system? 6. How is this land system changing? 7. What causes this land system to change? 8. How might this land system change? 9. What differences will land system change produce? 10.How should this land system change?
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