TERENO CT Palaeoclimate Extending the Time Concept A. Brauer, I. Heinrich, K. Kaiser Sektion Klimadynamik und Landschaftsentwicklung, GFZ Potsdam
Long-term Monitoring..for improving predictions Temperature changes in the period of instrumental easurements Brohan et al., 2006 Page 2
Predictions Depend on the Time when they are made 2001 1949 1977 2003 2007 Page 3
Geological Proxy Time Series: Greenland Ice Cores warm 0 10 last 200 years Age (in 1000 years) 20 warm t~2 C cold t~6 C The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill cold Johnsen et al., nature 1997
Climate Driving Mechanisms on Various Time Scales Page 5
Interactions of Mechanisms and Consequences Page 6
Interactions of mechanisms and Consequences Page 7
Information lies on and in the ground Page 8
Take the Information out of the Ground Page 9
4000 Challenge: Reading the Information High-resolution Element Scanning Rock magnetic Analyses 3000 Ca Stable Isotopes net count rate (cps) 2000 1000 Si 0 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 mm Tephrochronology Mg Micro-facies Analyses δ 18 O (per mil VPDB) Page 10
Challenge: Reading the Information Old living trees Historical Buildings Crossdating of tree ring time series Long and well-dated tree ring chronologies from archaeological sources available for the last 1000 years from our cooperation partner DAI (German Archaeological Institute) Page 11
Challenge: Merging Instrumental and Geological Times Novel Concept: Reducing Time Resolution in Geoarchives: Seasonal Resolution in Varved Lake Sediments and Tree Rings Cell Sizes as Hydrological Proxy Page 12
TERENO Network of Palaeo-stations NE German Lakes Eifel Maar Lakes Ammersee Jues-See, Harz Page 13
Ammersee: Calibrating Temperature Proxydata Instrumental Data 4 2-9.6-9.8 Annecy Ammersee Temperature Annecy Temperature Ammersee 0 Δ-MAT ( C) -10 δ 18 O[ SMOW] -10.2-10.4-10.6-10.8-2 -4-11 -11.2 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Age (yearsad) Page 14
The Ammersee Palaeotemperature Record Age, GRIP chronology (yrs BP) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 100001100012000130001400015000 δ 18 O P Europe Centrale ( SMOW) -10-11 -12-13 -14 von Grafenstein et al., Science 1999 Ammersee GRIP -34-35 -36-37 -38-39 -40-41 -42 δ 18 O P Groenland Central ( SMOW) Page 15
The Ammersee: An Excellent Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 16
The Ammersee as Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 17
The Ammersee: An Excellent Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 18
The Ammersee as Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 19
Redernswalder See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 3.5 m in 24 years Tree ring ananlyses: Growth period (= life time) 1923 1952 Page 20
Redernswalder See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 3.5 m in 30 years 3.5 m in 24 years 1900 1923 1950 Highly dynamic hydrological system: 3.5 m sea level rise and fall in 60 years! Mechanisms and trigger not understood Simple explanations are misleading Page 21
Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes Summer 1985 (H. Dinkel) August 2009 (I. Heinrich) Island Formation Vegetation Succession Page 22
Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes?? Germer et al. (2010) In order to reliably predict future developments, we have to understand the variability of the system and ultimately its driving mechanisms Page 23
Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes ca1950 today 2 1 13 14 Multi-Archive Approach: Lake Sediments + Tree Rings + Soils Including monitoring hydrology, lakes, trees 4 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Page 24
Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 0.9 m Eolian sand AD 1285 ± 15 AD 1059 ± 47 0.3 m limnic sand Page 25
Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes Page 26
Main Goal of the CT Palaeoclimate: Evaluating Climate Change on a Comprehensive Time Scale Page 27