Supporting Strategic Plan Development in Flanders Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Anne Gobin, Leen Van Esch, Hans van der Kwast VITO Flemish Institute for Technological Research Boeretang 200 2400 Mol Belgium guy.engelen@vito.be
Spatial Planning in Flanders, Belgium history 1995 Spatial Structure Plan Positive points Scientific basis Developed bottom-up: in consultation with the population; Only the main lines for development are fixed; Departs from what exists: available space, activities present, ; Guiding principles are Integration and Sustainable Development ; Main Principles: Protect and expand the remaining rural areas and open space. Hard boundaries!! De-concentrated bundling Selective expansion of urban areas; Optimise economic development and transportation Apply Subsidiarity principle
1 Structure: bring more structure into space 14 urban areas 5 urban networks 2 economic networks Enable new housing (60% of demand) Improve existing housing (40% of demand); Fill gaps in the existing housing areas; Keep plots small; Keep small villages in their original state; Concentrate economic development in urban networks and industrial corridors
2 Select and put boundaries: protect and expand valuable nature 7 large, contiguous rural areas Valleys of streams and small rivers Most importantly: do not give up any natural areas nor open spaces. Expand them and bring them back to a more pristine state.
3 Combine and Link structures: enabling biodiversity and economic exchange 5 connections between rural areas 4 sea ports 2 airports 2 High Speed Train stations Few new roads! Improve existing roads; Establish a hierarchy of roads; New impetus for rail transport Improve public transport in the suburban areas;
Subsidiarity principle applies Each Province develops a plan that fits within the Flanders plan; Plans at Province-level are both a guideline and a constraint for Municipal-level Each Municipality develops its plan which fits within the Provincial plan.
Problems The plan took a long time to be implemented: bad practices are not coming to a halt; Implementation is at the municipal level: the greater picture gets lost; The plan is overly static: it draws sharp borders, but urban dynamics spill over the borders. The social space is undervalued. Number fetishism is caused by the strict spatial delineations; Sustainable spatial development is defined in terms of: spatial carrying capacity refers to efficient usage of the environmental resource space spatial quality puts the emphasis on assessment by the public. This is socially and culturally determined and hence time-dependent. The aspect equity is undervalued: who gets the benefits and who is to pay for it and how are the benefits and burdens shared among the current and the future generations? Scenario analysis, such as defined in Sustainability Exploration will be deployed to review the plan. It should be ready by 2012.
Worldviews and Scenario s in preparation of strategic planning - Global markets - Technological development - Freedom & Individualism - Large scale agriculture - No subsidies Global Economy Globalisation Global cooperation - Global solidarity - Government intervention - Clean technologies - Multifunctional agriculture Weak regulation Sustainability Indicators Critical success factors Technological development Technology not available autoregulation fails Continental Markets Protection Policy and global agreements Bureaucracy Global consensus fails Regional Communities Change in attitude Strong regulation - Separated Regions - Safety - New coalitions - Differentiation in agriculture - Subsidised agriculture - Mosaic landscape Critical risks Global overpopulation Social dilemma Drop in wealth Regionalisation - Regional identity - Closed systems - No export subsidies - Small scale agriculture - Cultural landscapes Synergies: win-win conditions
Main indicator: land use change
Land use change 28 land uses Each cell: 2,25 ha Runs 2005-2030 Simulation in 2-3 min.
Structure of the Land use model: Flanders + Brussels Region Global 1 Region Regional Arrondissements: 23 Regions Local 1.138.569 cells (2,25 ha), (1707 bij 667)
Structure of the Land use model: Flanders + Brussels Region Global level: Flanders & Brussels = 1 entity Global 1 Region Trends Regional level: 23 Arrondissements, 1 population, 5 sectors Data availability Limited relevance for policy-making Regional Arrondissements: 23 Regions Spatial Interaction Local level: Cells of 150 bij 150 meter CA-neighbourhood of 150 x 8 = 1200 m Local 1.138.569 cells (2,25 ha), (1707 bij 667) Cellular Automata
MIRA-S-2009 Scenarios (Scenario Milieu Rapport 2009) Globalisation - Global solidarity - Government intervention - Clean technologies - Multifunctional agriculture Global Economy Global cooperation EU Weak regulation Continental Markets REF Regional Communities Strong regulation Regionalisation
Land use change 2005 2030 in REF Differences REF and ER in 2030
Land use change 2005 2030 in REF Differences REF en ER in 2030: build-up area Differences REF and ER in 2030
Hard surfaced area (search radius 1,5 km) Population density
Evolution of population density 2005 2030 in REF scenario: decreasing in de city centres, increasing in the urban fringe and rural areas
Contiguity and surface of green spaces Contiguity and surface of hards surfaced area GROENE RUIMTE 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 < 10 ha 12,433 11,895 11,712 11,546 11,354 11,229 10-100 ha 2,270 2,134 2,096 2,086 2,065 2,049 100-1000 ha 285 311 325 341 358 364 > 1000 ha 17 19 20 21 21 20 VERSTEENDE RUIMTE 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 < 10 ha 16,326 16,400 16,123 15,934 15,688 15,612 10-100 ha 2,267 2,069 1,928 1,857 1,807 1,777 100-1000 ha 400 382 375 378 370 354 > 1000 ha 44 49 46 41 42 45
Consumption of areas designated for expansion of residential in 2005-2030
Land use map: 28 classes, 15m resolution Leuven Zeebrugge