wind power forecasts

wind power forecasts

the user friendly forecast studio about aiolos users Aiolos is Vitec s market-leading tool for effective management for all of your forecasts. With Aiolos it is possible to predict the electricity load, district heating load, district cooling load and wind power generation with advanced and reliable forecast models. Short-term and mid-range forecasts up to 240 hours ahead are available with a resolution from 5 minutes to 1 hour. Aiolos can also be used as a framework to collect forecasts from other systems. Aiolos forecasts wind power for everything from individual wind turbines, to wind farms, and up to an entire country s production. The system bases its forecasts on a hybrid model. By combining a statistical model with physical factors such as wind speed at different altitudes, wind direction, air density and so on, Aiolos produce production forecast of very high quality. The system makes several production forecasts based on different weather forecasts, which then are weighted together into a final forecast. The Aiolos electricity load forecasting module is used by the majority of TSO s and load balancing companies in the Nordic region. The system makes short-term forecasts but also supports year-long forecasts used for financial trading. The combination of advanced, predictive modeling and a modern and user-friendly interface, makes Aiolos a musthave tool in today s energy trading. aiolos forecasts: electricity load district heating load gas consumption wind power generation solar energy production For example Svenska Kraftnät Fingrid Vattenfall Fortum Markets Elektra Invest Göteborg Energi DinEl E.ON Energiakolmio Dala Kraft Helsinki Energy Statkraft Litgrid Skellefteå Kraft Hafslund Nordic Power Management Axpo Aiolos Forecast Studio

getting started It is very easy to start using Aiolos. The three steps to get started are: 1. Tell us where your wind turbines are located and their basic technical data. 2. Vitec creates a model for each site and extracts the appropriate weather forecasts. 3. The system is up and running, creating forecasts. As time passes and more historical data becomes available, the model is improved and the quality of the forecasts improves. Production data can, optionally, be fed directly into the system. step 1 The customer provide us with site- and production data Name Latitude Longitude Hub height Rotor diameter Maximum output Number of turbines step 2 Vitec collects site specific weather data Wind speed 10, 20, 30...100 m Wind speed 800 m Wind direction 80 m Temperature 10 m Temperature 80 m Air pressure at ground level step 3 The model is ready to produce power forecasts

user friendly Aiolos is user friendly and gives a good overview of your wind turbines. The upper graph shows estimates of production, each based on an individual weather forecast, together with a curve displaying the weighted and the final forecast for the user. The forecast shown in a chart. Along with the forecasts, upper and lower limits are displayed, estimating the P-values for the forecast. All power forecasts are displayed. One for each weather forecast and a final weighted forecast. The lower diagram shows all weather forecasts that were used to generate the production forecasts. Overview over your area/parks/ wind turbines. Once the forecasts are obtained, you as a user can easily export them to your trading system, either manually or automatically. Information about the site/ wind turbines. Forecast, date and forecast period shown in a spread sheet. Maintenance module Set start date, start time and length for the forecast and click the forecast button. Weather forecast shown in a chart. Pre-set export functions for the forecast. Aiolos Forecast Studio

model description 1. Incoming weather forecasts 2. Site specific interpolation 3. Density adjustment 4. Vertical interpolation 5. Stastistical power curves Vitec receives numerical weather predictions (NWP) from the weather forecast providers we cooperate with. The NWP are available as hourly data with up to 17 weather parameters for the next 72 hours, and also with lower resolution for predictions up to 10 days ahead. The underlying meso-scale forecasts have been interpolated to an exact position for each wind site, in order to capture the site specific wind conditions. The interpolated wind speed is subsequently adjusted for differences in the air density during the forecast period. The current wind profile is estimated and based on the different weather parameters, where the wind speed is vertically interpolated to the hub height. By using local power curves, the adjusted wind speed forecast is transformed into a production forecast. These local power curves have been obtained by applying trimmed, non-linear regression on the historic production and weather forecasts. 6. Wind direction dependence 7. Multiple weather forecasts 8. Combining the forecasts 9. The final forecast 10. Optional - real time corrections Depending on the current wind direction, the appropriate power curve is selected among up to 12 different curves, each associated with its own wind direction vector. The number of selectable curves is automatically determined by the model through repeating statistical F-tests. The previous steps are implemented for each original weather forecast obtaining a number of preliminary production forecasts. Depending on previous performance, each forecast is weighted together into a combined final forecast. The weights given each forecast will change over the prediction horizon. The various weights have been calculated using stepwise linear regression. The resulting final forecast is displayed both in a graph and in a spreadsheet, together with the key information from each intermediate step above. The forecast can then be exported both externally, or into the Aiolos forecast studio where it can be further aggregated and weighted together with external forecasts from other sources. If production values are available for the recent hours at the time of forecasting, the errors for the short term forecasts are reduced by taking these production values into account, adapting the forecast accordingly.

the user friendly forecast studio key features about vitec Accurate forecasts The key feature of Aiolos is its ability to make accurate forecasts. Talk to Vitec s sales representatives to get detailed information on the accuracy of our forecasts. Confidence intervals Multiple weather forecasts View the forecasts using confidence intervals (P25/P75 or P10/P90) directly in the graph. Aiolos incorporates several different weather forecasts at the same time to create its production forecasts. By using multiple weather forecasts we can improve the accuracy even more. Reporting tools Import the forecast results to the Vitec report templates and see the forecast results in a form which you are interested in. The system uses ratios such as RMSE, MAE, etc. Real-time data Aiolos can be used with or without real-time production data. For the highest quality of the forecasts for the first 10 hours, we recommend using the real-time data module. Maintenance function Plan and calculate when it is appropriate to carry out repair / service of your equipment with the Aiolos maintenance module. Enter which wind turbine/park is to be maintained and the system automatically calculates a new current production forecast, and ensures that the model is aware of this in the next forecast. Flexible resolution The system supports multiple time resolutions including 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60-minute resolutions. Dynamic Fractions Tool for optimization of aggregated forecast series by non-linear regression. Used to compare and weight together multiple forecasts for one series. Vitec Energy develops, markets and sells software for the energy industry. Our customers represent a large portion of the market such as: distribution and production companies of district heating and electricity; electricity resellers; national electricity-system operators (TSOs), and several consultancy agencies. Vitec provides systems to handle the forecasting of electricity load, heat load and wind power production. We also provide systems for documentation of the distribution network, a.k.a. Network Information Systems. These systems handle both the geographical location of the components and the function on a technical level. The NIS systems also include pressure decay simulations for district heating grids and electrical calculations for electricity grids. With over 160 customers, Vitec is a leading supplier of Energy software on the Northern European market. We provide software for E.ON, Fingrid, Svenska Kraftnät, Fortum, Hafslund, Mälarenergi, Helsinki Energy, Vattenfall and more.

do you want a demo? Contact information Our sales team would be more than happy to visit you for a full demonstration! Please contact us so we can help you with specific questions regarding Aiolos and wind power forecasts in general. Ask for Johan Nihleen or Niklas Berg. Professional skills Vitec has a dedicated support team with in-depth knowledge about our software, as well as the art of wind power forecasting. Our team will help you with everything from the installation and set-up to the daily delivery of forecasts. Easy and efficient! Quality policy Vitec s mission is to develop, market and sell user friendly software of such quality that it gains the full satisfaction from its users. We have annual user meetings where all customers are welcome. The ideas discussed at these meetings are often the foundation of coming developments of the system. The meetings are an opportunity for customers, small and large, to influence the future development of the system. We have a reference group consisting of experienced users. We meet this reference group regularly to discuss development issues and to get their feedback. This ensures that our software is on par with the need in the business. Vitec Energy AB Phone: +46 90 15 49 00 E-mail: info@vitec.se Web: www.vitec.se