Reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics

Reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics

NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NATO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and D. Reidel Publishing Company Physical Sciences Dordrecht and Boston D Behavioural and Martinus Nijhoff Publishers Social Sciences The Hague/Boston/Lancaster E Applied Sciences F Computer and Springer-Verlag Systems Sciences Berlin/Heidelberg/New York G Ecological Sciences Series E: Applied Sciences - No. 70

Reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics edited by P. Thoft-Christensen Professor of Applied Mathematics at Aalborg University Centre Aalborg. Denmark 1983 Martinus Nijhoff Publishers The Hague / Boston / Lancaster Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division

Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics Bornholm, Denmark, August 31-September 9, 1982 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data NATO Advanced Study Institute on Reliability Theory and its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics (1982 : Bornholms amt, Denmark) Reliability theory and its application in structural and soil mechanics. (NATO ASI series. Series E, Applied sciences; no. 70) "Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division." I1Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Reliability Theory and its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics, BornhoIm, Denmark, August 31- September 9, 1982"--T.p. verso. 1. Reliability (Engineering)--Congresses. 2. Structures, Theory of--congresses. 3. Soil mechanics--congresses. I. Thoft-Christensen, PaIle, 1936- II. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Scientific Affairs Division. Ill. Title. IV. Series: NATO advanced science institutes series. Series E, Applied sciences no. 70. TA169.N37 1982 620'.00452 83-11419 ISBN-13: 978-94-009-6898-1 001: 10.1007/978-94-009-6896-7 e-isbn-13: 978-94-009-6896-7 Distributors for the United States and Canada: Kluwer Boston, Inc., 190 Old Derby Street, Hingham, MA 02043, USA Distributors for all other countries: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, Distribution Center, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stor.ed in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publishers, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, P.O. Box 566, 2501 CN The Hague, The Netherlands Copyright 1983 by Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, The Hague Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1983

v PREFACE The proceedings contain lectures and short papers presented at the NATO Advanced Study Institute on»reliability Theory and Its Application in Structural and Soil Mechanics», Bornholm, Denmark, August 31 - September 9,1982. The proceedings are organized in two parts. The first part contains 12 papers by the invited lecturers and the second part contains 23 papers by participants plus one paper from an invited lecturer (la~e arrival). The Institute dealt with specific topics on application of modem reliability theories in structural engineering and soil mechanics. Both fundamental theory and more advanced theory were covered. Lecture courses were followed by tutorial and summary discussions with active participation of those attending the Institute. Special lectures of topical subjects were given by a number of invited speake~, leading to plenary discussions and summary statements on important aspects of application of modem.reliability theory in structural engineering and soil mechanics. A great number of the participants presented brief reports of their own research activities. The more theoretical part of the Institute dealt with a number of important subjects and new discoveries. It was emphasized that the tail sensitivity problem is the primary motivation for defining a measure of reliability solely in terms of first and second momen'ts rether than in terms of distributions. Furthermore, a considerable gain in simplicity is obtained by basing reliability theory on uncertainty algebra. Random processes and stochastic response analyses were treated in detail. Failure probability in terms of first-passage time was discussed. The discussion was concentrated on an integral identity satisfied by the probability density function of the first-passage time. It was demonstrated that known results such as the Poisson model and the inclusionexclusion series appear as special cases. Reliability analysis of structural components and of structural systems was given a detailed treatment, and approximate techniques were presented. The application part of the Institute included a great number of specific applications of modem reliability theory. Some selected reliability topics in relation to nuclear

VI power plants were discussed and seismic safety assessment in current nuclear power plant practice was summarized. It was shown how seismic safety of reinforced concrete frames and of rock filled dams can be evaluated. Application of reliability analysis in geotechnical engineering was illustrated by a number of practical case studies. The reliability of structural design for wind action was treated from a theoretical point of view and practical application was presented for low and tall buildings, longspan bridges and slender structures. Offshore structures were discussed in many details since the safety analysis of such structures involves most branches of reliability theory and risk analysis. Practical procedures for assessing the probability of failure of fixed platforms were presented. Finally, the important problems in relation to control of structural quality and gross errors were discussed. I would like to thank members of the Organizing Committee for their valuable help in organizing the Institute. Special thanks to Mrs. Kirsten Aakjrer, Aalborg University Centre, for her efficient work as Institute secretary before, under and after the Institute. Finally, the support of the NATO Office of Scientific. Affairs is gratefully acknowledged. January 1983 P. Thoft-Christensen

VII CONTENTS PREFACE....................................................... LECTURES Basic Reliability Concepts....................................... O. Ditleusen Level Crossings of Random Processes.......................... 57...... O. Ditleusen Load Models...................................... 85........ w. Bosshard Stochastic Response Analysis............................. 103....... S. Krenk, P. H. Madsen Reliability Analysis of Structural Components and Systems.............. 173. R. Rackwitz Control of Structural Quality................................. " 215 N. C. Lind Structural Quality and Human Error.......................... 225....... N. C. Lind Applied Geotechnical Reliability Analysis....................... 237....... G. B. Baecher Simplified Geotechnical Data Analysis....... " 257 G. B. Baecher Seismic Safety of Rockfill Dams............................. 279..... D. Veneziano Seismic Safety of Reinforced Concrete Frames..................... 303..... D. Veneziano V

VIII The Reliability and Synthesis of Aerodynamic and Meteorological Data for Wind Loading....................................... 315....... A. G. Davenport SHORT CONTRIBUTIONS Failure Probability of Spent Fuel Transportation Casks due to Impact onto Soil 337 H. J. Wingender On the Uncertainties Related to the Extreme Hydrodynamic Loading of a Cylindrical Pile...................................... 351....... C. Guedes Soares, T. Moan Compliance Criteria for Concrete Strength... ;_....... 365 L. R. Taerwe Aeroelastic Model Tests on a Monument Consisting of Three Swords........ 377 E. Hjorth-Hansen, O. C. Astrup The Influence of Nonlinearity on the Reliability of Design Methods for Reinforced Concrete Slabs.................................. 391....... A. Sarja On the Reliability of Deteriorating Structures...................... 399.... G. F. Oswald, G. I. Schu~ller Some Aspects of Modelling Near Field Acceleration Time Histories.......... 413 R. J. Scherer Stochastic Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Jacket Type Offshore Structures.... 425 H. Karadeniz, A. Vrouwenvelder, A. L. Bouma- Reliability Analysis of Elasto-Plastic Structures..................... 445.... C. M. Ferregut-Avila Human Error in Structural Reliability - Recent Research Results........... 453 R. E. Melchers Probabilistic Modelling of Design Loads for Ships... :.............. 465.. G. Ferro, A. Pittaluga Statistical Analysis as Applied to Mechanics of Tropical Soils in Connection with Slope Safety of Earth Dams............................. 477...... M. Vargas Displacement-Based Seismic Reliability of Earth Slopes................ 487.. M. S. Yiicemen On Safe Offshore Operation of Crane Barges....................... 499... C. Oestergaard Some Aspects of Redundancy in Relationship to Structural Reliability..... 509 A. N. Kinkead Statistical Parameter Uncertainty, Information Level and Reliability Assessment 511 E. Yarimer Reliability Analysis of Frame Structure through Automatic Generation of Failure Modes....................................... 525....... Y. Murotsu

Consistency of Columns Design by C.E.B. - F.I.P. Model Code........... " 541 R. Giannini, M. Menegotto Incorporating Gross Human Error in Reliability Analysis or Avoiding them in Design, Construction and Maintenance....................... 553...... A. W. F. Reij, A. v.d. Toom Influence of Uncertainty of Local Friction Angle and Cohesion on the Stability of Slope in Coulomb Soil....................................... " 567 P. Bjerager, O. Ditlevsen Joint Action-Effect Models for Permanent and Variable Loads Represented by Stochastic Processes with Gamma Distribution of Intensities......... " 581 V. Solana Decision Analysis Applied to Problems of Structural Code Formulation....... 595 1. J.Jordaan Studentized Statistics................................. 605....... H. Gomes, D. Pestana Reliability Analysis of Offshore Structures....................... 613...... Michael J. Baker (lecturer) Subject Index............................................ 643 LIST OF PARTICIPANTS.................................... 649 IX