Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) Glacier Monitoring & Research Centre Glacier Monitoring: WAPDA s Initiative in the Upper Indus Basin Asim Rauf Khan, Project Director GMRC WAPDA 17-18 February 2016 ICIMOD, Kathmandu
WAPDA s mission statement Manage the water resources of Pakistan for irrigation, energy and flood control. 2
Contribution of Snow and Ice Western River Stations Approximate Contribution of Snow and Ice Indus at Tarbela 85% Kabul at Nowshera 75% Jhelum at Mangla 65% Chenab at Marala 50% Western Rivers Average Inflows Total Western Rivers Snow and Ice Contribution Total Contribution of Snow and Ice in Western Rivers Period Annual Inflows (MAF) Ice and Snow Contrib. (MAF) 1961-2013 60.72 51.6 1961-2013 21.65 16.2 1961-2013 22.20 14.4 1961-2013 25.36 12.7 129.93 MAF 95.0 MAF 73.1 % 3
Cryosphere Monitoring 1960s Installation of river gauging network and valley bottom weather stations in Upper Indus Basin. 1961-1969 Snow surveys were carried out in Kaghan valley. 1985-1989 WAPDA in collaboration with Canadian Universities carried out UIB snow and glacier field studies to develop flow forecasting system for UIB Rivers. 1991-1997 WAPDA established high-altitude (2200-4750 m.a.s.l.) network in UIB comprising 20 weather stations. Record collect & transmit hourly weather data to Flow Forecasting Centre Lahore. High-altitude data and UBC Watershed Model are being used for forecasting flows on seasonal (Rabi and Kharif) and short-term (10- Daily) since 2003 for water management in Indus River System. 4
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WAPDA DCP Station (4750 m.a.s.l.) at Khunjerab SENSORS INSTALLED Temperature Precipitation Relative Humidity Solar Radiation Snow Water Equivalent Wind (Speed; Direction) 6
Flow Forecasting using UBC Watershed Model Seasonal Kharif (April-September) Rabi (October-March) Ten-daily Indus River @ Tarbela Kabul River @ Nowshehra Jhelum River @ Mangla 7
Glacier Field Activities during 2015 Studying the melt behaviour of glacier Pasu Glacier Miar-Sumiyarbar-Barpur System Biafo Glacier Stakes, weather data recording, discharge observations Snout surveys for glaciers in the Hunza River Basin Pasu Barpu Hoper Yazghill Malungutti Khurdopin & Yushkin Gardan Virjerab 8
Melt Rates for Biafo Glacier Jul-Sep (2015) Sr. No. Profiles Month Net Ablation Rates (cm/day) 1 July (11-31) 6.8 2 Mango Profile August 5.2 3 Sep. (1-9) 3.2 El. 3679 m 4 July (11-31) 6.5 5 Baintha Profile August 5.0 6 Sep. (1-9) 4.1 El. 4051 m 9
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Maximum Daily Discharge in Cusecs Maximum Daily Temperature ( o C Nagar Valley: Temperature & Glacial Melt (July 2015) 35.0 Temperature (Hoper) July 2015 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 AWS 10.0 25000 20000 15000 Nagar River Discharge July 2015 ARL Catchment of Nagar River 10000 5000 0 11
Glacier Snout Surveys (November 2015) 12
Pasu Glacier (initial work during 2010-11 in collaboration with ICIMOD) 13
Field Activities Plan for 2016 Glacier Field Investigations Hispar Glacier (Karakoram Range) Biafo Glacier (Karakoram Range) Rakhiot Glacier (Himalayan Range) Glacier Snout Surveys Hispar, Biafo, Rakhiot, Yashkuk Yaz, Batura, Gulkin, Gulmit, Hussaini, Bualter Discharge Measurements Nagar River Hispar River Shimshall River Rakhiot stream 14
Joint Field Work with ITP-CAS during 2016 Program under discussion Glacier melt-behaviour studies GPR survey Isotope analysis Water quality monitoring 15
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Inflows (maf) 160 Post Treaty Western Rivers Inflow Trend 150 140 130 120 110 100 Falling Trend Man-Kendall Trend Significance Level = 69% Annual Average (1961-2014) = 129.833 MAF 90 16
61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 Inflow Volumes (MAF) 75 Kharif Flows FallingTrend at Tarbela During 1961-2012 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 17
61-62 62-63 63-64 64-65 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 74-75 75-76 76-77 77-78 78-79 79-80 80-81 81-82 82-83 83-84 84-85 85-86 86-87 87-88 88-89 89-90 90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 Inflow Volumes (MAF) 11.0 Tarbela Rabi Flows Rising Trend During 1961-2012 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 18
Monthly Trends of Western Rivers During 1962-2014 Trend Method: Mann Kendall Indus at Tarbela Kabul at Nowshera Jhelum at Mangla Chenab at Marala Months First Year Last Year n Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Avg. Q maf Trend Sig. Lvl. Jan 1962 2014 53 1.013 Rising 95% 0.628 Rising 88% 0.530 Rising 61% 0.570 Rising 82% Feb 1962 2014 53 0.988 Rising 100% 0.587 Rising 98% 0.795 Rising 95% 0.706 Rising 69% Mar 1962 2014 53 1.410 Rising 99% 1.014 Rising 84% 1.776 Rising 91% 1.242 Rising 15% Apr 1962 2014 53 2.010 Rising 24% 2.037 Falling 58% 2.711 Rising 29% 1.475 Falling 35% May 1962 2014 53 4.479 Rising 100% 3.129 Falling 40% 3.608 Falling 1% 2.283 Rising 61% Jun 1962 2014 53 9.959 Falling 85% 4.012 Falling 96% 3.520 Falling 96% 3.528 Falling 84% Jul 1962 2014 53 15.012 Falling 92% 4.156 Falling 91% 3.325 Falling 92% 5.327 Falling 92% Aug 1962 2014 53 14.082 Falling 92% 3.010 Falling 88% 2.610 Falling 84% 5.407 Falling 93% Sep 1962 2014 53 6.380 Rising 13% 1.326 Rising 14% 1.536 Rising 50% 2.763 Rising 1% Oct 1962 2014 53 2.473 Rising 96% 0.700 Rising 84% 0.797 Falling 24% 0.943 Rising 70% Nov 1962 2014 53 1.496 Rising 100% 0.549 Rising 1% 0.548 Falling 6% 0.525 Rising 69% Dec 1962 2014 53 1.186 Rising 99% 0.549 Falling 58% 0.521 Rising 32% 0.489 Rising 33% Annual 1962 2014 60.488 Falling 52% 21.698 Falling 65% 22.278 Falling 22% 25.260 Falling 53% Note: The Falling Trend in Summer UIB Flows is attributed to falling summer temperatures in UIB.
Thank You 20