An examination of accident compensation claims during natural hazard events Rosi Winn, Alice Huston & Catherine Weston
Flood claims could climb as high as $6b SMH 25/1/11 Victoria on heat alert The Australian 30/1/2011 Counting the cost of Yasi's great fury SMH 5/2/11 Disasters to take toll on insurance costs ABC News 6/2/11 Agenda Hazards in Australia Analysis scope & approach Results
Todd river regatta Source: http://www.westlakes.rotaryaust.org/images/uploads/regatta.jpg Todd river in flood Source: http://www.alicespringsanglicanchurch.org.au/about_alice_springs.php Cooper creek punt 2011 Source: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/gallery-e6frg6nf-1225877106020?page=11
Hazards in Australia Floods NSW 1955 Floods Brisbane 1974 Meckering Earthquake WA1968 Cyclone Tracy NT 1974 Southern Floods 1990 Newcastle Earthquake NSW1989 Record rain WA 1999 Hail Sydney 1999 Cyclone Larry 2006 Cyclone Yasi 2011 Floods QLD / VIC 2011 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Fires WA 1961 Fires TAS 1967 Fires WA 1978 Dust storm VIC 1983 Drought 1982-3 Fires VIC 1983 Heatwave Brisbane 1994 Drought 2002-5 Fires ACT 2003 Dust storm NSW 2009 Southern Heatwave 2009
El Niño / La Niña rainfall patterns El Niño La Niña Cyclone activity in the Australian region is also linked to La Niña.
2009 the end of the drought Sydney dust storm Sept 2009 Source: http://www.triplem.com.au/sydney/shows/grillteam/photos/dust-storm?selectedimage=2 Major heatwave in Adelaide & Melbourne Jan 2009 Victorian bushfires Jan / Feb 2009 Source: http://www.theage.com.au/national/firefighters-battle-newoutbreak-of-victorian-bushfires-20090224-8g17.html
Approach - general High level study covering both CTP and workers compensation Based on more highly populated states NSW, QLD, VIC Work with Scheme data standard data variables General approach was a matched pairs analysis Claims experience reflects a multitude of factors Approach compares experience during an event vs. that at other similar times this standardises for other factors without explicitly identifying them
Selection of events We considered 2 source databases ICA historical and current disaster stats AG s Department Disasters Database records all natural and non-natural disasters dating from 1622 onwards Filter to pick events Types of events Locations & durations Timing 1/1/1981 onwards Separate BOM data used for heat waves
Selection of events 6 hazards selected for analysis Insufficient events for: Tsunamis Tornado Landslide VIC NSW QLD All Bushfire 3 3 1 7 Cyclone 0 0 3 3 Earthquake 0 1 0 1 Flood 4 4 3 11 Hail 0 2 3 5 Heatwave 5 5 5 15 Storm* 5 4 3 11 All 17 19 18 53 Earthquake * Note: 1 storm event covers 2 states
Selection of matched pairs 10 pairs selected for each event Selection algorithm considered day of week, seasonality, holidays, other events ( black out periods) Different multi-year approach used for events >2 weeks Analysis considered claim frequency & mix of characteristics
NSW CTP Frequency Examine results by event and across events Wary of events which may not be representative Look for consistent patterns of experience Also consistency across states Sample results 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 7 8 9 11 Ratio of event claim frequency to matched pairs 13 22 12 Flood 14 28 29 32 Storm Hail Flood Bushfire Heatwave Earthquake Possibly influenced by legislative change 35 36 39 40 41 42 Outlier christmas / NY period 43 31
Storm, hail & cyclone - events Events Storm Australia wide Hail NSW & Queensland (incl. 1999 Sydney hail) Cyclone limited to Queensland (incl. Larry, Yasi) Characteristics Frequency Mix of claims
Storm, hail & cyclone - findings Clearer picture for storm, similar patterns but less evidence for hail & cyclone Generally higher frequency, especially for CTP - despite exposure effects? CTP more low severity claims, younger people, pedestrians, multi-vehicle collisions? fewer cyclists, motorcyclists, Workers more claims from safety workers, slightly more females
Events 4 NSW, 3 QLD, 4 VIC Major events Newcastle June 2007 Melbourne January 2011 NOT Brisbane 2011 Flood - events May not be sufficiently representative of major events
CTP Higher frequency Similar claim mix effects as for storm Workers Flood - findings Lower frequency More females, older workers Flood events tend to be local Are these effects caused by the flood or rain? Needs more granular analysis Bedourie March and April 2011 Source: http://www.wrightsair.com.au/floodwaternews.htm Rosi Winn
Bushfire events & findings Events 3 Vic, 3 NSW, 1 Qld. 3 long duration Findings CTP More fatalities Workers - Increased claims from emergency response workers Some other effects observed with weak evidence interpretation? Victorian bushfires 2009 Source: http://www.churcheswa.com.au/2009/02/prayer-forthose-affected-by-the-victorian-bushfire/ Events localised - NSW workers claims clustered by postcode => more granular analysis may be of interest
Heat events Identified events using BOM data EHF captures temperature anomalies, important since people acclimatise to local conditions Top 5 events in each city broad coverage, although UHI effects too In general, people most at risk Older people Those with cardiovascular and respiratory conditions Those undertaking physical activity
Heat events - findings CTP little noticeable change More high severity claims? More claims from young people? Workers Slightly reduced claim frequency Increased proportion of claims for males & older workers Increased proportion in some industries food, manufacturing Suggests some link to those more at risk, but evidence base is fairly weak
Australia = tectonically stable 1989 Newcastle 1968 Meckering, WA 1954 Adelaide Earthquake Not possible to a anticipate, except perhaps aftershocks => responses limited Newcastle earthquake 28 Dec, 10.27am Results included in paper for interest only
Overall conclusions Implications for Schemes Relatively benign financial impact Indications that most people are able to modify behaviour to reduce exposure Implications for community safety Risks to pedestrians during adverse weather Risks to event responders Heat events care if not able to modify activities / work environment For more localised events (flood, bushfire) - more work may be needed to analyse experience at a more granular level
Questions?