Weather Vision: Past, Present, Future Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) Weather Integrated Product Team 1
20 Years Ago: Aviation Weather Forecasting Task Force FAA Funded Originally looked out 15 years from 1986 (to 2001) Membership: John McCarthy, Chair (NCAR) Stan Benjamin, NOAA Jim Dziuk, FAA Bill Hooke, NOAA Sandy MacDonald, NOAA Bob Maddox, NOAA Ron McPherson, NMC Ralph Petersen, NASA Wayne Sand, Univ. of Wyoming Bob Serafin, NCAR Dick Taylor, Ohio State Univ. Rich Wagoner, NOAA 2
What We Face Following the AWFTF and many lab, government, and university developments, an evolution of weather products to support aviation has occurred. Two models emerge: Examine user needs looking at whole system (FAA, pilot, AOC users in parts 121 and 91) -NCAR and AWRP Real-time prototyping at FAA facilities, ITWS, CIWS - MIT Lincoln Laboratory Many successes in both domains but without major connection to the FAA operating system, our most obvious failure 3
What We Face, Continued 60-80% of traffic delays have a weather connection If traffic counts grow anywhere near projections (JPDO NGATS), ability of current system to accommodate growth is essentially impossible System breakdown unavoidable unless capacity grows by 3X Caveat: we must plan for a future still full of unknowns (airline difficulties, terrorism, natural calamity, etc.) The system must have much more capacity and be safe 4
What is JPDO all about? An opportunity we can t afford to pass up Perhaps the first time since FAA was formed to totally resynchronize aviation weather services (government and industry) Buy-in from senior leadership across both government and industry Making tough decisions Transformation, not evolution Human versus automation Government and industry roles/costs Eliminate the not invented here philosophy Shared input/consensus where possible 2025 system--yes But begin to impact FY06 activities 5
Operating Principles It s about the users 2025 NGATS Concept System-wide transformation Prognostic approach to safety assessment Globally harmonized Environmentally compatible to foster continued growth Key Capabilities Net-Enabled Information Access Performance-Based Services Weather-Assimilated Decision Making Layered, Adaptive Security Broad-Area Precision Navigation Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations Equivalent Visual Operations Super Density Operations 6
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations Adjust airspace configuration to meet user needs 4D trajectories (including taxi and roll-out) are basis for planning and execution Machine-based trajectory analysis and separation assurance Includes environmental performance throughout all phases of aircraft operations Airspace configuration driven by: DoD/DHS requirements, domestic & international user needs, requirements for special-use airspace, safety, environment, overall efficiency Airspace reconfigurable during day of operations Users contract for airspace access and service 7
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations: Management-by-Trajectory Strategic Domain Airspace Organization and Management Airport Operations Airspace User Operations Demand & Environmental Performance Balancing Tactical Domain Information Management Separation Mgmt Domain ATM Service Delivery Management Conformance Monitoring Projected Profiles Planned Profiles User Requested Profile Agreement Clearance Weather, Aggregate Flow, Airport Configuration/Infrastructure Key Issues are functional allocation between: Automation and humans Aircraft operators and service provider 8
Aircraft Trajectory-Based Operations: Evaluator Integrates/communicates weather, security, defense, environmental, safety, international considerations, other information Users post /update desired 4D trajectories in common system that continuously evaluates mutual compatibility Predicts potential over demand situations, in multiple capacity dimensions traffic density, environmental, security, etc. Works across all time horizons from days/weeks/months prior to flight up to separation management (20 minutes or less) Supports distributed decision-making environment where players have clear, agreed-upon roles and interactions 9
Weather Assimilated into Decisions Common weather picture across NGATS Fuse global weather observations and forecasts into single information system, dynamically update as needed Tens of 1000 s of sensors (airborne & ground) feed 100 s of forecast models Learning automation accounts for weather and its uncertainties in managing aircraft trajectories Identify hazardous weather real-time Assimilated into NGATS decision loops Total integration via machine-to-machine Critical decision system time scales using both probabilistic and deterministic weather info Optimized to maximize available weatherfavorable airspace Terminal weather impacts including ground/ramp ops and adaptability due to wind shift changes 10
NGATS/JPDO Aviation Weather IPT Observations (improved suite) Forecasts (new science, automation, probability) Integration (critical joining of weather with ATM) Dissemination (4D Weather Information System) Aircraft Mitigation (harden aircraft for weather) Training (pilot, controller, again!) Policy Systems Engineering 11
Single-Sensor Quality Controlled Observations and Detections Emphasis and Priorities: NGATS Forecasting Process Global Diagnosis, Nowcasts, and Forecasts Forecast Process is Identical to Continental Scale Continental - Diagnosis, Nowcasts, and Forecasts Automated DSS Network Enabled Weather Data Cloud Feature Detection and Extrapolation Over-the-loop Human Forecaster Human Decision Makers Forecast Grids Model Grids Observations Network QC Clean Observations and Grids Data Assimilation and NWP Predictor Fields Automated Intelligent Diagnosis, Nowcast, and Forecast Systems Statistical Methods Observation Requirements; Diagnosis, Nowcast, and Forecast Grids; QC ed Observations Custom Alphanumeric and Graphic Generators Regional - Diagnosis, Nowcasts, and Forecasts Identical to Continental Local - Diagnosis, Nowcasts, and Forecasts Identical to Continental 12
X X Emphasis and Priorities: 4 D Weather -- Official Product of the Future 1 18 Z X Convection Turbulence Icing Snowfall Ceiling Visibility Radiation from Space Y 12 18:30 Wind Speed Wind Direction Temperature Humidity Noise Propagation Potential Airport Plume Concentration Atmospheric Sensitivity to Exhaust Volcanic Ash Concentration Wake/Vortex Dissipation Potential 0 Probability Distribution Function of Magnitude 13
Progress: Define Major Work Areas for the Forecasting Sub-team Convective Weather Turbulence In-Flight Icing Winter Weather (Ground Deicing) Ceiling and Visibility Space Weather Volcanic Ash Noise Airborne Hazards and Pollution Effects of Aircraft Exhaust on the Atmosphere Wake Vortices Numerical Weather Prediction Models Verification 14
Summary Enable forecasting support to broad range of possible NGATS futures Actual evolution to target curb-to-curb concept likely will consider multiple alternate paths Develop weather forecasting systems to support those alternatives Transition from today s forecasting system to future system Provide forecasts that support common situational awareness Intelligent fusion of data, models, and predictors into a single authoritative data base Common understanding of the definitions and limitations of the forecast elements Enable integration of weather information into DSS Develop reliable probabilistic forecasts Develop generic forecast products that can be customized to meet the needs of service provider and customer systems Develop new forecast products jointly with DSS community 15