Chart Discussion Latest Chart & SAT PIC 1
Last Week s Rainfall 2
Past Week s Surface Charts 3
14-Day Melbourne Precipitation Forecasts (mm) (consensus model official, access, ecmwf, gfs) DATE cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons cons Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt Amt FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC FC D- 1 D- 2 D- 3 D- 4 D- 5 D- 6 D- 7 D- 8 D- 9 D- 10 D- 11 D- 12 D- 13 D- 14 1- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2- Nov- 18 3.3 4.5 4.4 3.7 3.4 3.8 2.4 3.3 1.9 1.7 0.8 0 0 0 3- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 5 2.5 1.5 0 0 0 4- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 4.8 0 0 5- Nov- 18 8.4 7.6 7.1 4.3 4.4 3.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 0 6- Nov- 18 8.4 8.8 9.1 7.1 3.6 0 0 0.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 7- Nov- 18 2.5 2 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.8 0 0 1.3 0.8 0 0 0 8- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.3 0 2.6 1.5 4 0 9- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 2.2 0 10- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.1 0 0 0 0 1.7 0 11- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 12- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13- Nov- 18 1.8 2.6 5.8 5.2 2.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 0 14- Nov- 18 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.5 4 1.3 1.6 0 0 0 0 2.2 3.3 15- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.5 2.3 3.4 5.2 16- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.8 2.9 1.2 17- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 3.5 18- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 19- Nov- 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.6 0 20- Nov- 18 8.4 8.5 7.8 8.2 7.3 8.5 4.2 3.6 3 3.1 21- Nov- 18 6.3 2.4 3.1 2.1 1.5 0 5.1 1.7 2.2 22- Nov- 18 2.5 2.9 1.8 0 0 1.9 2.5 0 23- Nov- 18 0 0.9 0 0 2.4 0.8 0 24- Nov- 18 1 0.7 0 0 0 0 25- Nov- 18 1.5 0 4 0 1.9 26- Nov- 18 1.7 3.5 4.5 2.1 27- Nov- 18 0 0 2.2 28- Nov- 18 0 0 29- Nov- 18 04 30- Nov- 18
Last Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-15-Nov-2018 OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-16-Nov-2018 (Harvey Stern) 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 5
Climate Indices El Niño ALERT continues; positive Indian Ocean Dipole; For SST Anomalies: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif 6
Summary of Climate Indices The average Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index for the past week is +0.55 (1.06 standard deviations) The average Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past 90 days is -1.71 The average SOI for the past 30 days is +1.84 The latest recorded bimonthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is +0.468 The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for OCT/NOV is +0.67 Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to a weak El Niño 7
Melbourne 30-Day Outlook In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 27% chance of it being wet and a 41% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 39% chance of warm nights and a 28% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 43% chance of warm days and a 25% chance of cool days. 8
Seasonal Climate Outlook The summer (December 2018 to February 2019) climate outlook, issued 15 November 2018, indicates large parts of Western Australia, Western Tasmania and scattered parts of central Australia and Queensland are likely to be drier than a normal summer period. Warmer than average days and nights are likely for almost all of Australia 9
Jet Streams: Fri-16-Nov-2018 10
MSL Pressure: Fri-16-Nov-2018 11
Jet Streams: Sat-17-Nov-2018 12
MSL Pressure: Sat-17-Nov-2018 13
Jet Streams: Sun-18-Nov-2018 14
MSL Pressure: Sun-18-Nov-2018 15
Jet Streams: Mon-19-Nov-2018 16
MSL Pressure: Mon-19-Nov-2018 17
Jet Streams: Tue-20-Nov-2018 18
MSL Pressure: Tue-20-Nov-2018 19
Jet Streams: Wed-21-Nov-2018 20
MSL Pressure: Wed-21-Nov-2018 21
Jet Streams: Thu-22-Nov-2018 22
MSL Pressure: Thu-22-Nov-2018 23
Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-22-Nov-2018 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 24
Following ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-23-Nov-2018 to Sun-25-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 25
Following ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-23-Nov-2018 to Sun-25-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 26
Following GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-23-Nov-2018 to Sun-25-Nov-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
PREDICTED WEATHER For GFS, ACCESS, & ECMWF NWP models, & also CONSENSUS click on : http://www.weather-climate.com/14dayforecasts.html Chart Discussion Thank You 28