Climate Change in Sri Lanka: Threat, Vulnerability & Sectoral Opportunities Ranjith Punyawardena, PhD Principal Agro-climatologist Department of Agriculture Peradeniya
Greenhouse Effect Enhanced Source: WMO, 2018
Climate change in Sri Lanka It is a reality, Not a myth any longer Slow & continuous rise of ambient temperature (0.01 0.03 0 C/year) Frequent occurrence of extreme weather events Frequent & intense Droughts & floods High intensity rains Tornado type winds Intense lightning strikes Sea Level Rise? Potential threat
Dry zone No of Warm Nights Trend R 2 p-value Anuradhapura 0.63 0.55 0.00 Mah-Illuppallama 0.187 0.13 0.009 Batticaloa 0.15 0.10 0.032 Hambantota 0.247 0.17 0.003 Mannar 0.523 0.48 0.00 Intermediate zone Kurunegala 0.354 0.24 0.000 Badulla 0.368 0.53 0.00 Wet zone Colombo 0.538 0.50 0.00 Galle 0.481 0.43 0.00 Ratmalana 0.655 0.64 0.00 Katunayake 0.459 0.59 0.00 Ratnapura 0.27 0.22 0.001 Katugastota 0.236 0.23 0.001 Nuwara Eliya 0.507 0.62 0.00 Increasing trend everywhere Significant everywhere Punyawardena & Premalal, 2013
No. of Cold Night Dry zone Trend R 2 p-value Anuradhapura -0.295 0.47 0.00 Maha-illuppallama -0.224 0.26 0.00 Batticaloa -0.062 0.01 0.253 Hambantota -0.112 0.13 0.008 Mannar -0.159 0.26 0.001 Intermediate zone Kurunegala -0.061 0.00 0.466 Badulla -0.108 0.16 0.004 Wet zone Colombo -0.226 0.41 0.00 Galle -0.261 0.23 0.001 Ratmalana -0.242 0.25 0.00 Katunayake -0.128 0.24 0.00 Ratnapura -0.196 0.23 0.001 Katugastota -0.12 0.17 0.003 Nuwara Eliya -0.236 0.46 0.00 Decreasing trend everywhere Significant in most cases Punyawardena & Premalal, 2013
Minimum Temperature o C 13 Annual Average Minimum Temperature (Nuwara Eliya) 12.5 12 11.5 11 MinT = 0.0247*Yr - 37.206 (p=0.000, R 2 =0.588) 10.5 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Annual Average MinT Linear (Annual Average MinT) Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011
Minimum Temperature o C 24.8 24.6 24.4 24.2 24 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.2 23 22.8 Annual Average Minimum Temperature (Anuradhapura) MinT = 0.0241*Yr - 24.276 (p=0.000, R 2 =0.64) 22.6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Annual Average MinT Linear (Annual Average MinT) Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011
Annual Rainfall (mm) 2900 Rainfall Annual Rainfall (Nuwara Eliya) 2400 1900 1400 900 Does not show a significant trend (p=0.377) 400 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Annual RF
Annual Rainfall (mm) 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 Annual Rainfall (Anuradhapura) Does not show a significant trend (p=0.538) 400 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Annual RF Nissanka & Punyawardenan, 2011
Kandy district Matale district Punyawardena & Premalal, 2015
Nuwara Eliya district Badulla district Punyawardena & Premalal, 2015
Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Mean No. of Heavy Events Dry zone 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Heavy Rainfall Events- Maha Illuppallama (DL 1b ) FIM SWM SIM NEM 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Heavy Rainfall Events- Kantale (DL 1c ) FIM SWM SIM NEM Period (Pentad) Period (Pentad) Heavy Rainfall Events- Trincomalee (DL 2b ) Heavy Rainfall Events- Puttalum (DL 3 ) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 FIM SWM SIM NEM 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 FIM SWM SIM NEM Period (Pentad) Period (Pentad) Abeysekara &Punyawardena, 2016
Occurrence of Heavy rainfall events (weekly cumulative) in a decade during Maha season Maha-Illuppallama > 100 mm > 150 mm > 200 mm 1985-94 24 9 2 1995-04 31 15 8 2005-14 32 13 6 Punyawardena, 2015
Trends of annual # of rainy days in NCP (1960-2013) Station m (Slope) c (Intercept) r 2 value p-value Bakamuna 0.027 17.05 0.000 0.867 Kaudulla tank -0.056 181.6 0.003 0.681 Maha- Illuppallama -0.189 463.4 0.045 0.123 Angamedilla -0.317 702.5 0.102 0.019 Anuradhapura -0.321 724.7 0.122 0.009 Giritale -0.373 806.2 0.086 0.031 Minneriya tank -0.574 1208 0.346 0.000 Kalawewa -0.743 1546 0.304 0.000 Punyawardena et al, 2012
90 th percentile Source: Dept of Meteorology
Variability of Maha season rainfall in the Dry zone Station CV(1991-2000) CV(2001-2010) Ampara tank 0.23 0.27 Anuradhapura 0.37 0.24 Batticaloa 0.35 0.36 Hambantota 0.31 0.34 Trincomalee 0.33 0.26 No change in cumulative seasonal rainfall, but erratic distribution Punyawardena, 2012
Increase of average annual temperature of Sri Lanka - 2080 Punyawardena et al, 2013
Change of annual rainfall of Sri Lanka - 2080 Punyawardena et al, 2012
Latest DoM studies on climate projections. Multi Model Ensemble FIM Baseline climatology period 1975-2005 2020-2040 Short term 2040-2060 medium term 2070-2090 Long term Multi Model Ensemble SIM Baseline climatology period 1975-2005 2020-2040 Short term 2040-2060 medium term 2070-2090 Long term Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 Multi Model Ensemble SWM Baseline climatology period 1975-2005 2020-2040 Short term 2040-2060 medium term 2070-2090 Long term Multi Model Ensemble NEM Baseline climatology period 1975-2005 2020-2040 Short term 2040-2060 medium term 2070-2090 Long term Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 Low Emission Scenario RCP 4.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5 High Emission Scenario RCP 8.5
Energy Transport Food Security Manufacturing Tourism Biodiversity Anything that may cause damage or destruction to a system or an asset. Water Security Human settlement Health
Spatial Vulnerability of Sri Lanka to Climate Change Punyawardena et al, 2013
Punyawardena, BVR, 2003. Impact of climate change on crop production in Sri Lanka. Proceedings of the Conference on Monsoon Environments: Agricultural and Hydrological Impacts Seasonal Variability and Climate Change. ICTP, Trieste, Italy. March 24-28, 2003.
What ever the sector Climate change threatens your supply chain, customers businesses and, the communities you re a part of. If you want to stay in business for a long term in a sustainable manner, while contributing to the fight against climate change is Just a smart strategy You don t want to be a Tech Giant to embrace eco-friendly technology
Try to be a rainbow in a disastrous cloud All the sectors of the economy can turn it to an opportunity..!!! Start as a simple intervention Decrease your carbon footprint, Buy or invest more renewable energy and Engage in sustainable resource management Think about Hospitality industry How much your food goes on waste? Of course, Supportive policies are a must
A simple example from my own department Maha Illuppallama Field Crop Research & Development Institute 2018 Installed 45 kwh Net metering Monthly Electricity bill in Laboratories Rs. 180,000/= Rs. 20,000 25,000/=
WHAT ARE THE RESPONSE OPTIONS AVAILABLE? Do Nothing Adapt Mitigate
Everything has been said already, But, since no one listens One must always start again. Andre Gide (1869 1951) French Novelist & Critic Thank you!!!