ALASKA REGION CLIMATE FORECAST BRIEFING January 23, 2015 Rick Thoman ESSD Climate Services
Today Climate Forecast Basics Review of recent climate forecasts and conditions CPC Forecasts and observations for most recent month and season Current Atmosphere and Ice Climate Drivers: SSTs, PDO, ENSO Climate Forecast Guidance ENSO Statistical Dynamic--NMME Climate Prediction Center Last Month CPC Outlooks Next month Next season
Climate Forecast Basics Climate Prediction Center: primary NOAA/NWS forecast responsibility Climate Forecasts Relation to some long term normal (1981-2010) Categorical (often three) Probabilistic Traditional Elements Temperature: centered around average Precipitation: centered around median (can significantly differ from the normal, which by convention is the mean)
December 2014 Temperature Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: 100 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
December 2014 Precipitation Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: none Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
Oct-Nov-Dec 2014 Temperature Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: 90 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
Oct-Nov-Dec 2014 Precipitation Anomalies Underlying shading shows the CPC outlook Heidke Score: -31 Above normal Near Normal Below Normal Preliminary data subject to revision
Mid-January Sea Ice Comparison 21 Jan 2015 20 Jan 2014 2015 vs. 2014: Somewhat less ice in Bering, similar coverage Bristol Bay
Arctic-Wide Sea Ice Coverage Arctic-wide coverage very similar to past few winters. Total ice volume end of December (from PIOMAS) estimated at greatest since 2006-07
Alaska Near-Shore SSTs
Global SST Anomalies Positive PDO Pattern
Tropical Pacific SSTs and Winds
Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly
What s Happened to El Niño? SSTs east of the dateline (Niño 3.4 and 3 regions) have(slightly) exceeded +0.5ºC anomaly since autumn The center of Pacific convection has not shifted to east of the dateline
Guidance ENSO Models Expert Evaluation Statistical Trends in the Past 10/15 Years SST Anomalies Oceanic Correlation Dynamic SST Anomalies Global Temp and Pcpn Anomalies
CPC Niño 3.4 Forecasts Plumes: Niño 3.4 +0.5ºC weakens but potential for reemergence late summer?
CPC Niño 3.4 Forecast El Niño Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño conditions within the next six months. https://sites.google.com/a/noaa.gov/nws-ar/home/essd/climate-services/cfpcorner/enso-resources
February Optimum Climate Normals Upper Temp Tercile Lower Temp Tercile Upper Pcpn Tercile Lower Pcpn Tercile
Feb-Mar-Apr Optimum Climate Normals Upper Temp Tercile Lower Temp Tercile Upper Pcpn Tercile Lower Pcpn Tercile
PDO: Then and now during FMA 1948-88 Temps 1989-2013 Precip
Dynamic Forecasts Extratropical SSTs Arctic Sea Ice Temp and Pcpn Anomalies
NMME Forecast SST Anomalies Moderately positive PDO pattern
CFS Sea Ice Forecast February Mean Anomaly February Mean Coverage
February 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts
February 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts
Probability Forecasts for February 2015 Fcst from November Fcst from December Fcst from January
NMME for FMA 2014: reasonable
Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Temp Anomaly Forecasts
Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Pcpn Anomaly Forecasts
Probability Forecasts for Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Fcst from November Fcst from December Fcst from January
NMME Skill for February and FMA Temp Pcpn
CPC December Forecast for Feb-Mar-Apr
And the Answer Is
CPC February 2015 Outlook 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% 55% 33% 12% 37% 33% 30% 45% 33% 22% Above% Normal% Below%
CPC Feb-Mar-Apr 2015 Outlook 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30% 33% 34% 33% Above% Normal% Below% 55% 33% 12% 45% 33% 22% 37% 33% 30%
Climate Forecast Links CPC Monthly http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ CPC Seasonal http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/ NMME http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/nmme/ ENSO at CPC (including weekly briefing) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/ enso.shtml ENSO at IRI http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/