1 Hazard Feedback using the current GMPEs for DCPP Nick Gregor PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study SWUS GMC Workshop 2 October 22, 2013
PGA Hazard By Source 0.5 Hz 2
Deaggregation AEP = 10-4 PGA 0.5 Hz 3
4 Base Case Ground Motion Prediction Equations 5 NGA (2008) GMPEs Abrahamson and Silva Boore and Atkinson Campbell and Bozorgnia Chiou and Youngs Idriss Equally weighted with Epistemic Uncertainty Vs30m = 760 m/sec
5 Additional GMPEs for Sensitivity Analyses Abrahamson, Silva and Kannai (2013) Boore, Stewart, Seyhan and Atkinson (2013) Campbell and Bozorgnia (2013) Chiou and Youngs (2013) Idriss (2013) Grazier and Kalkan (2013) Zhao et al. (2006) Rock SC I (Vs>600m/sec) Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2013) Bindi et al. (2011) Class A (Vs>800m/sec)
Mean Hazard Curves - PGA 6 GMPE Sigma Sigma=0.65
7 Mean Hazard Curves T=1.0sec GMPE Sigma Sigma=0.65
Tornado Ground Motion Ratio 8 AEP = 10-4 Ratio (GM Low /GM Base ) ~ 0.9 Ratio (GM Base /GM Base ) = 1 Ratio (GM High /GM Base ) ~ 1.6 Ratio ~1.6
Sensitivity Analyses 9 Sigma Median Base Case with GMPE Sigma Sigma-PhiSS Median Base Case with GMPE Sigma and adjusted Phi Term GMPE Individual GMPEs GMPE Median Individual median GMPEs with fixed sigma=0.65 Strike-slip Individual GMPEs for Strike-slip sources with base case results for reverse sources Strike-slip-Median Individual GMPEs for Strike-slip sources with base case results for reverse sources both with fixed sigma=0.65 Reverse Individual GMPEs for Reverse sources with base case results for strike-slip sources Reverse-Median Individual GMPEs for Reverse sources with base case results for strike-slip sources both with fixed sigma=0.65
Tornado Diagram PGA, 10-4 10
Tornado Diagram 5Hz, 10-4 11
Tornado Diagram 1Hz, 10-4 12
Tornado Diagram 0.5Hz, 10-4 13
Tornado Diagram PGA, 10-6 14
Tornado Diagram 1Hz, 10-6 15
References Abrahamson, N.A., and Silva, W, (2008). Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 67-97. Abrahamson, N. A., W. J. Silva, and R. Kamai (2014). Update of the AS08 Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Based on the NGA- West2 Data Set, Earthquake Spectra, This issue (in press). Akkar, S., M.A. Sandikkaya, and J.J. Bommer (2013). Empirical ground-motion models for point- and exetneded-source crustal earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East, Bull Earthquake Eng., online publication Bindi, D., F. Pacor, L. Luzi, R. Puglia, M. Massa, G. Ameri and R. Paolucci (2011). Ground motion prediction equations derived from the Italian strong motion database, Bull Earthquake Eng., Vol. 9, pp. 1899-1920. Boore, D.M. and G.M. Atkinson (2008). Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horozontal Component of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA at Spectral Periods between 0.01s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 99-138. Boore, D. M., J. P. Stewart, E. Seyhan, and G. M. Atkinson (2014). NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting Response Spectral Accelerations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Campbell, K.W., and Bozorgnia, Y. (2008). NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% Damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 139-171. Campbell, K. W. and Y. Bozorgnia (2014). NGA-West2 Campbell-Bozorgnia Ground Motion Model for the Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped Elastic Pseudo-Acceleration Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Chiou, B.S-J and Youngs, R.R. (2008). An NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 173-215. Chiou, B-S.J. and R. R. Youngs (2014). Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Ground Motion Model for Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). Grazier, V. and Kalkan, E. (2013). Graizer-Kalkan Ground-motion Prediction Equations for Western United States: 2013 Updates, U.S.G.S. Report Series 2013-XXXX, in press. Idriss, I.M. (2008). An NGA Empirical Model for Estimating the Horizontal Spectral Values Generated By Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 217-242. Idriss, I. M. (2014). NGA-West2 Model for Estimating Average Horizontal Values of Pseudo-Absolute Spectral Accelerations Generated by Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, in press. Zhao, J.X., Zhang, J., Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi, T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H.K., Somerville, P.G., Fukushima, Y., and Fukushima, Y. (2006). Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominate Period, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 96, 898-913. 16