Crop / Weather Update The next will be published November 13, 2018, due to the Veteran s Day holiday on Monday.
Corn Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 This week, corn harvest comes in at 76% complete, which is one point above the 10-year average and 8% ahead of last year s progress. Analysts expected corn to come in at 77% complete, so actual reports are extremely close to this prediction. Looking at individual states, some producers may finish up, or close to it, if weather cooperates this week, in Illinois (93% complete), Kentucky (92%), Missouri (92%), North Carolina (98%), Tennessee (96%) and Texas (90%). A few states report their harvest as being far behind their 5-year average, and those include Nebraska, behind 7 points at 65% complete; North Dakota, behind 13% at 49% complete and South Dakota, behind 11 points at 59% complete. However, states such as Indiana, ahead 6 points from the 5-year average; Michigan, ahead 5 points and Wisconsin, ahead 8 points bring this week s overall reported harvest progress close to average.
Cotton Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 The U.S. published another late reading for U.S. cotton condition in the Nov. 5 edition of its weekly report, stating the 15-state average 33% good to excellent, which represented a 2% weekly decline. This likely last reading for 2018 came in well below the final 2017 reading at 56% and the 10-year average figure for late October at 46%. Given the weekly drop and the historical comparisons, this result could prove supportive of cotton futures in overnight trading. The decline likely reflected recent rainfall, which may have reduced overall production and the quality of the fiber being picked. The fact that the Texas (-4% to 22% good-excellent), Oklahoma (-7% to 12%) and Kansas (-1% to 58%) readings all declined probably reflected the impact of recent rains. The Alabama crop, which posted a 9% surge to 69% good-excellent (one of just two states showing improvements), may have reflected the crop s recovery from Hurricane Michael, but the condition of the Georgia crop kept sliding (down 2% to just 19% good-excellent).
Cotton Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Recent rains apparently continued slowing the cotton harvest, as indicated by the progress figure of just 49%, up just 5% from the week prior. That compares poorly to gains of 8% in 2017 and 11% over the past 10 years. In fact, after starting strongly and running moderately ahead of historical norms early in the harvest season, the 2018 cotton harvest is now lagging comparable year-ago and 10-year average figures at 53% and 55%, respectively. Again, rainfall over the Southern states, particularly Texas and Louisiana, has slowed the harvest pace, with just 2% of the Texas crop (now at 38% complete) being done, and Louisiana s advancing just 3%, although it s at the other end of the harvest spectrum, now 89% done.
Soybean Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 Despite generally more open conditions last week, the U.S. soybean harvest continued lagging last week. The USDA s November 5 report stated the bean harvest as being 83% complete, up 11 points from the week prior, but that s 6% and 5% behind comparable year-ago and 10-year average readings for early November, respectively. Conversely, the 11 percentage point gain was larger than the 8% weekly increase indicated by both last year s pace and the average over the past 10 years. The fact that market observers were expecting a 12% rise over the past week (to 84% complete) may spark some buying in overnight action. The pace of the North Carolina harvest at just 45% complete continues lagging all others, while combining Kansas (63%), Kentucky (64%), Missouri (64%) and Tennessee (68%) are the only others at less than 70% done. Louisiana (95%), Minnesota (94%), Illinois (92%), South Dakota (92%), Mississippi (92%) and Nebraska (90%) are closest to finishing.
Winter Wheat Crop Condition-Fall Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 This week, winter wheat condition came in at 51% good/excellent, which is a drop of 3% from last week. It s also under last year s rating and the 10-year average of 55%, and 3 points less than what analysts predicted before USDA s report. Eleven out of eighteen states reported a decrease in the good/excellent category, with two states in the west, where drought conditions plague farmers, having double digit decreases California went from 95% good/excellent to 80%, and Washington decreased 16% to 57% good/excellent. This helps explain the decrease in overall condition this week. On the flip side, five states reported an increase in the good/excellent category with the largest increase occurring in South Dakota, up 15% to 59% good/excellent.
Winter Wheat Planting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 USDA pegged the 2018 winter wheat seeding at 84%-complete as of November 4. Planting progress was again slow at just 6% up from the previous week, and is now running 6% behind last year s pace and 7 points behind the recent 10-year average pace. Analysts expected progress to come in at 86% this week. Several states are adding to the slow overall planting progress in the U.S., including Arkansas (-15% below 5-year average), Oklahoma (-11%), Texas (-10%), California and Kansas (both -8%), North Carolina (-7%) and Michigan and Missouri (both -6%). As the precipitation map shows on the next page, wet weather plagued many of these states last week, which is most likely the reason for the slow progress. However, Nebraska and South Dakota both reported being 100% complete. This week, some rains are forecast, but drier conditions in the central Plains and the west may help producers catch up with planting.
Weather There was an active storm track last week through the central US that is continuing into this week. Rains were much above average from West and north-central Texas northeastward through the mid-mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley. The rains were an impediment to corn and soybean harvesting and winter wheat seedings. Rains in West Texas cotton regions presumably are no value for the 2018 outlook but serve to boost moisture in the long-term looking ahead to 2019. Most areas of the Southeast were drier than normal as was the central Plains. Moisture was generally above average from the PNW to the northern Plains.
Weather The map displays Monday s seven-day rainfall forecast to next Monday. The new week is starting up similar to how the past week closed off, which is with rains in the central to lower Mississippi River Valley and along the Ohio River Valley. The Southeast project to more rains. There may be slightly more rain in the central Plains than last week, although totals probably don t mount to large amounts. The northern and southwestern Plains look to be drier. Drier conditions in the southern Plains should benefit the cotton harvest.
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