Weekly Weather Flash Oct.18 - Oct.31 United States Oct. 18 24: A Cold Start and Warming Up Throughout the Week. Heavy Rain and Flooding for the West & Plains. Oct. 25 31: Halloween Revelers Will be Treated to Mild Temperatures, While Wet Weather May Provide Tricks. Europe Oct. 18 24: Cooler West, Warmer East. Oct. 25 31: The Pattern Continues. Cool West, Warm East.
October 22, 2015 United States Week of October 18 24 Temperature vs. L ast Year Wiper Blades +8% Firewood +2% Fleece +1% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Demand for cold weather items will be positive, but decrease throughout the week when the temperatures warm up. Last year, this week was the warmest since 2005: With below normal precipitation, US experienced its warmest 3rd week of October since 2005. Warming temperatures, still cooler than last year: A crisp start to the week for eastern states will include scattered frost/freeze conditions. Markets from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast will see warmer temperatures compared to last year. Wet in the Central and West: It will be a wet week for markets in the Plains, Rockies and Southwest. The system responsible for the heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides in California will shift east. Periods of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely for the Intermountain West and Plains states. Heavy rain late week and into the weekend for Texas and parts of the South Central region. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 2
October 22, 2015 United States Week of October 25-31 Temperature vs. Last Year Outerwear - 3% Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Warmer readings dominate the final days of October, limit cold weather demand, with only the Southwest and South Central strongest versus last year. Last year, this week was the warmest since 2010: The US trended warmest since 2010, and driest since 2008. Halloween was coldest since 2006, with above normal rainfall. A wet end to a dry month: The month has been dry for most regions, with a twist at the month end. Storms across the Northern Tier will merge with persistent tropical moisture midweek to produce periods of heavy rain for interior and eastern areas. Halloween: Weather s Trick or Treat: Scattered showers will provide tricks for some, others treated to warm, dry conditions. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 3
October 22, 2015 Europe Week of October 18 24 Temperature vs. Last Year Blankets (Austria) Hoodies (France) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Stronger than last year demand can be expected for the West, while significantly weaker in the East. Cooler west, warmer east: Western areas will be cooler than normal and well below last year s readings. The reverse will be true in the East, which will be much warmer than last year. More rain southwest and east: Across Eastern Europe, rain and even a few snowflakes are expected. Showers will also track across the Iberian Peninsula and move slowly into the Mediterranean. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 H K: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 4
October 22, 2015 Europe Week of October 25 31 Temperature vs. Last Year Hoodies (Germany) Jackets (Spain) Source: Planalytics Retail implications: Similar to the week before, Western Europe will expect positive weather demand for fall product categories, while Eastern Europe can only expect the demand hindered by warm temperatures. Cooler West, warmer East: A similar pattern, with a cooler West and Warmer East, compared to last year. Rain into the West: Several storm systems will move through Western Europe, bringing heavy rain in many areas. DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 5
October 22, 2015 Deborah Weinswig, CPA Executive Director Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre New York: 917.655.6790 Hong Kong: 852.6119.1779 China: 86.186.1420.3016 deborahweinswig@fung1937.com Filippo Battaini filippobattaini@fung1937.com Marie Driscoll, CFA mariedriscoll@fung1937.com John Harmon, CFA johnharmon@fung1937.com Aragorn Ho aragornho@fung1937.com John Mercer johnmercer@fung1937.com Shoshana Pollack Shoshanapollack@fung1937.com Kiril Popov kirilpopov@fung1937.com Jing Wang jingwang@fung1937.com Steven Winnick stevenwinnick@fung1937.com HONG KONG: 10th Floor, LiFung Tower 888 Cheung Sha Wan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong Tel: 852 2300 2470 NEW YORK: 1359 Broadway, 9 th Floor New York, NY 10018 Tel: 646 839 7017 LONDON: 242-246 Marylebone Road London, NW1 6JQ United Kingdom Tel: 44 (0)20 7616 8988 FBICGROUP.COM DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY DEBORAHWEINSWIG@FUNG1937.COM US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. 6