CHAPTER 15 Applying Methods from Local to Regional Scales Andrés Viña, Weihua Xu, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Jianguo Liu 15.1 Introduction Most detailed research on coupled human and natural systems has been conducted at the local scale (An et al., 2014, Hull et al., 2015, Liu et al., 2007a, b). Although such research has provided useful insights (e.g., Chapters 3 14), more research is needed to address important issues at broader scales. For example, long-term survival of species is dependent on abundant and well-connected suitable habitat areas across their geographic ranges (Crooks and Sanjayan, 2006, Damschen et al., 2006, Kareiva and Wennergren, 1995, Ricketts, 2001). Therefore, range-wide analyses are needed to assess habitat dynamics and human impacts at multiple scales, such as inside and across nature reserve boundaries (Loss et al., 2011, Minor and Lookingbill, 2010, Noss, 2007, Spring et al., 2010). Range-wide habitat analyses are essential for the establishment of conservation practices that support the long-term survival of many endangered species, such as the endangered giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) (Xu et al., 2014). Giant pandas once were found throughout most of China, northern Vietnam, and northern Myanmar (Pan et al., 2001). But due to human activities such as agricultural expansion, logging, and infrastructure development, only 1864 wild giant panda individuals remain within six main mountain regions (Qinling, Minshan, Qionglai, Greater Xiangling, Lesser Xiangling, and Liangshan) in three provinces (Gansu, Shaanxi, and Sichuan) of China (Hu and Wei, 2004, Mackinnon and De Wulf, 1994, Reid and Gong, 1999, State Council Information Office of China, 2015, State Forestry Administration, 2006, Viña et al., 2010; Figure 1.1). These mountain regions are characterized by a high elevational range and are dissected by the valleys of perennial rivers. The complex topography, together with the substantial variability of climates and soil types, leads to diverse flora and fauna. In fact, a significant portion of the region where the pandas live has been classified as one of the world s top 25 Biodiversity Hotspots (Myers et al., 2000). The geographic range also contains a UNESCO World Heritage Site (Li et al., 2013) and several biosphere reserves for the protection of not only the giant pandas but many other endangered species. The panda habitat across its entire geographic range includes several types of forest ecosystems (Reid and Hu, 1991, Taylor and Qin, 1993) which are home to thousands of other animal and plant species. Thus, efforts to mitigate the reduction and fragmentation of panda habitat may also assist in the conservation of other endangered species. Examples include the golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), the takin (Budorcas taxicolor), the red panda (Ailurus fulgens), the forest musk deer (Moschus berezovskii), and the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus). Therefore, assessing the dynamics of the giant panda habitat and pandas people interactions across the entire range of the giant panda is crucial for the conservation of many other endangered species that coexist with them (Xu et al., 2014). Pandas and People. Edited by Jianguo Liu, Vanessa Hull, Wu Yang, Andrés Viña, Xiaodong Chen, Zhiyun Ouyang, and Hemin Zhang. Oxford University Press 2016. Published 2016 by Oxford University Press.
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Applying Methods from Local to Regional Scales 199 suitability, particularly when local people are actively involved in monitoring (Chapter 7). However, across the entire geographic range this is less clear, since most of the region exhibited no significant changes during the first decade of the twenty-first century. Therefore, despite NFCP and GTGP and their associated gains in forest cover across the entire geographic range of the species (Figure 15.3B), the observed forest-cover gains may not have translated into a widespread increase in suitable giant panda habitat. Nevertheless, as some areas are experiencing positive trends in habitat suitability, there is hope that the widespread implementation of conservation policies will eventually translate into giant panda habitat recovery. Thus, the continuation of habitat monitoring across the entire geographic range of the species using the procedures described here will be crucial in assessing the effects of conservation policies over the long run. Given proper modifications, the procedures developed for panda habitat in Wolong may also be useful for assessing the habitat conditions of many other endangered species around the world. Results from these analyses would be helpful in proposing conservation strategies for endangered species using a more holistic conservation practice targeting entire geographic ranges. Example strategies include land-use zones, establishment of new nature reserves and corridors, and extensions to current reserves. 15.6 Summary To demonstrate the utility of methods developed at local scales in the analyses at regional scales, we applied novel panda habitat models, developed for our model system of Wolong Nature Reserve, to the entire geographic range of giant pandas that spans six mountain regions in three provinces of China (Gansu, Shaanxi, and Sichuan). Our analyses indicated that the quantity and quality of panda habitat vary greatly across the geographic range. While forests occupy about one-third of the range, only ~17% constitutes suitable habitat for the pandas because many forests lack suitable understory bamboo. A conspicuous increase in forest cover was observed during the first decade of the twenty-first century, in part due to national conservation policy implementation. But this forest recovery has not fully translated into a widespread panda habitat recovery. The upscaling procedures allowed for assessment of the connectivity of suitable habitat and identification of areas that require further conservation actions. We found that only ~40% of the suitable habitat was located inside the 63 existing nature reserves, as of 2010. Our approach showed that current nature reserves need to be expanded and to be better connected through creating dispersal corridors. Upscaling can also help promote the conservation of other species, because panda habitat comprises several types of forest ecosystems that are home to thousands of other animal and plant species. Finally, with proper modifications, the procedures developed in Wolong will also be useful for assessing the spatiotemporal habitat dynamics of numerous species in many other parts of the world. References An, L., Linderman, M., Qi, J., et al. (2005) Exploring complexity in a human-environment system: an agent-based spatial model for multidisciplinary and multiscale integration. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 95, 54 79. An, L. and Liu, J. (2010) Long-term effects of family planning and other determinants of fertility on population and environment: agent-based modeling evidence from Wolong Nature Reserve, China. Population and Environment, 31, 427 59. An, L., Lupi, F., Liu, J., et al. (2002) Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity: implications for giant panda habitat conservation. Ecological Economics, 42, 445 57. An, L., Mertig, A.G., and Liu, J. (2003) Adolescents leaving parental home: psychosocial correlates and implications for conservation. Population and Environment, 24, 415 44. An, L., Zvoleff, A., Liu, J., and Axinn, W. (2014) Agentbased modeling in coupled human and natural systems (CHANS): lessons from a comparative analysis. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 104, 723 45. Bearer, S., Linderman, M., Huang, J., et al. (2008) Effects of fuelwood collection and timber harvesting on giant panda habitat use. Biological Conservation, 141, 385 93. Berry, P.A.M., Garlick, J.D., and Smith, R.G. (2007) Nearglobal validation of the SRTM DEM using satellite radar altimetry. Remote Sensing of Environment, 106, 17 27.
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