NAEFS Status and Future Plan Yuejian Zhu Ensemble team leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Presentation for International S2S conference February 14 2014
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate/Weather/Water Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Climate Prediction Products Weather Prediction Products Life & Property Maritime Space Operations Emergency Mgmt Commerce Energy Planning Reservoir Control Agriculture Recreation Ecosystem Environment Forecast Lead Time Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination H Y D R O L O G I C P R O D U C T S Benefits Aviation Fire Weather Hydropower Health
NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons CPC Climate/Weather Linkage Years Forecast Uncertainty Week 2 Hazards Assessment Forecast Lead Time Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Service Center Perspective SPC HPC AWC OPC Benefits TPC SWPC Seasonal Predictions 6-10 Day Forecast NDFD, Days 4-7 Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : Life & Property Aviation Maritime Space Operations Fire Weather Emergency Mgmt Commerce Energy Planning Hydropower Reservoir Control Agriculture Recreation Ecosystem Health Environment
NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather Seasons Years Forecast Uncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System* Climate/Weather Linkage Forecast Lead Time Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination NCEP Model Perspective Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS Hurricane Models -GFDL -WRF Benefits Life & Property Aviation Maritime Space Operations Fire Weather Emergency Mgmt Commerce Energy Planning Hydropower Reservoir Control Agriculture Recreation Ecosystem Health Environment
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) International project to produce operational multicenter ensemble products Bias correction and combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA Generates products for: Weather forecasters Specialized users End users Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive
Statement The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1 14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either of the two sets of tools separately; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries over North America, between Mexico and the US, and between the US and Canada. As a first step in the development of the NAEFS system, the two ensemble generating centers, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) of MSC started exchanging their ensemble forecast data on the operational basis in September 2004. First NAEFS probabilistic products have been implemented at NCEP in February 2006. The enhanced weather forecast products are generated based on the joint ensemble which has been undergone a statistical post processing to reduce their systematic errors.
NAEFS Milestones Implementations First NAEFS implementation bias correction IOC, May 30 2006 Version 1 NAEFS follow up implementation CONUS downscaling December 4 2007 Version 2 Alaska implementation Alaska downscaling December 7 2010 Version 3 Implementation for CONUS/Alaska expansion Q2FY14 Version 4 Applications of NAEFS Statistical Post Processing: NCEP/GEFS and NAEFS at NWS CMC/GEFS and NAEFS at MSC FNMOC/GEFS at NAVY NCEP/SREF at NWS Publications (or references): Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard, 2004: The Trade off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6 10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281 284. Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2006: GFS bias correction [Document is available online] Zhu, Y., B. Cui, and Z. Toth, 2007: December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) [Document is available online] Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: "Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27 396 410 Cui, B., Y. Zhu, Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2013: "Development of Statistical Post processor for NAEFS Weather and Forecasting (In process) Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007: December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) [Document is available online] Zhu, Y, and Y. Luo, 2013: Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM). Weather and Forecasting (in process) Glahn, B., 2013: A Comparison of Two Methods of Bias Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint Forecasts MDL office note, 13 1
NAEFS Current Status Updated: February 13 2013 NCEP CMC NAEFS Model GFS GEM NCEP+CMC Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF Model uncertainty/stochastic Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics and stochastic) Yes Tropical storm Relocation None Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km 600*300 (66km) 1*1 degree T190L42 (d8-16)~70km L72 Control Yes Yes Yes (2) Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days Post-process Bias correction Bias correction Yes (same bias for all members) for each member Last implementation February 14 th 2012 February 13 2013 8
NCEP/GEFS raw forecast 4+ days gain from NAEFS NAEFS final products From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC 9
NCEP/GEFS raw forecast 8+ days gain NAEFS final products From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC 10
NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: January 1st December 31st 2012 GFS 8.0d GEFS 9.5d NAEFS 9.85d
Summary of 6 th NAEFS workshop 1 3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA 6 th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1 3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA. Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop: Review the current status of the contribution of each NWP center to NAEFS For each NWP center, present plans for future model and product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles) Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble NAEFS LAM) Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications.
NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability. The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions. The NUOPC Tri Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the nextgeneration National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system. 14
10 day forecast AC score CRPS Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30 day running mean scores of day 10 CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation RMS error All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/na efs/vrfy_stats/t30_p500hgt
Research and Operational Applications In Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements: Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP) http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html 16
NAEFS & THORPEX Expands international collaboration Mexico joined in November 2004 FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC) Provides framework for transitioning research into operations Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system: Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Transfers New methods North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Articulates operational needs
Future Seamless Forecast System NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP scheme for 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day, planning to extended to 45 days at lower horizontal resolution, 00UTC only (coupled). NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemble in the future, with improving post process which include bias correction, dual resolution and down scaling GEFS/NAEFS service Main event MJO Main products: ENSO predictions??? Seasonal forecast??? CFS service week-1 week-2 one month Weather/Climate linkage SEAMLESS Main products: 1. Probabilistic forecasts for every 6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble mean, mode and spread. 2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and precipitation probabilistic mean forecasts for above, below normal and normal forecast 3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 ) The quality of NAEFS week 2 forecast Has been confirmed by CPC Operational CFS has been implemented in 2011 with T126L64 atmospheric model resolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere (GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, one day older?), integrate out to 9 months. IMME and NMME -??? 18
Courtesy of Drs. Pena and Zhang
Reforecast the facts and expectations 25+ years GEFS reforecast data are available for testing and applications. It is the same model/resolutions as current operational GEFS Once per day at 00UTC, 11 members only The values have been demonstrated: Overall benefits: mainly studied for surface temperature and precipitation ESRL/PSD Improving the reliabilities and skills of 6 10 days, week 2 s temperature and precipitation forecast CPC, ESPL/PSD Help to enhance the ability of extreme forecast, hazard outlook and precipitation guidance WPC, ESRL/PSD Improving extended range temperature forecast for transition seasons (Spring and Fall mainly) through comparing current NAEFS SPP products EMC Improving precipitation forecast accuracy and reliability; applications of analog QPF/PQPF and model climatology via extreme forecast index WR/regions, ESRL/PSD Expectations from users Running in real time when the model upgrade Optimum configuration to minimize the cost, maximize the benefits Special session discussion in Dec. 2013 (NPSV) Will discuss in coming 6 th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop
Future Plans Improving numerical forecast system Resolutions Initial perturbations Model uncertainties (include surface perturbations) NAEFS extension Increasing memberships (and models) Extended to 30 days to cover week 3&4 Coupling ocean atmosphere Post processing Real time reforecast Improving methodologies Higher moment calibration International collaboration THORPEX legacy S2S, GIFS TIGGE(?) Other centers
Background!!!
NUOPC Current Status Updated: February 13 2013 NCEP CMC FNMOC Model GFS GEM Global Spectrum Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF (9) Banded ET Model uncertainty Stochastic Yes (STTP) Yes (multi-physics and Stochastic) None Tropical storm Relocation None None Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km 600*300 (66km) T159L42 ~ 80km T190L42 (d8-16)~70km L72 Control Yes Yes No Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) Post-process Bias correction for ensemble mean Bias correction for each member Bias correction for member mean Last implementation February 14 2012 February 13 2013 NAVGEM implementation on February 13 2013
NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: January 1st December 31st 2013 GFS 8.08d GEFS 9.39d NAEFS 9.76d Need to make up GFS scores later