UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI COLLEGE OF BIOLOGICAL AND PHYSICAL SCIENCES Schl f Physical Sciences Master f Science in Aviatin Meterlgy Aviatin weather Frecasts and Assessment f frecast Quality (SMR 644) Practical Manual fr Academic Year 2015/16 Written By: Ininda J. M Department f Meterlgy University f Nairbi
INTRODUCTION TO PRACTICALS IN Aviatin weather Frecasts and Assessment f frecast Quality The series f practical in Aviatin weather Frecasts and Assessment f frecast Quality are aimed at equipping the students with practical skills in current practices f weather analysis and frecasting. PRACTICAL TIME TABLE (SMR 644 2015/16) SERIAL NO. DESCRIPTION DATE DUE FOR HANDING IN Practical - 01 Cding upper air data 17 th February, 2016 10 Practical - 02 Practical - 03 Practical- 04 Practical - 05 Practical - 06 Pltting the sunding n a T 21 st February, 2016 10 Interpretatin f 2 nd March, 2016 10 METAR Writing a SIGMET 16 th March 2016 10 Diagnstic Analysis f the Weather patterns ver Kenya fr Octber- December 2015 and January 2016. Predictin f the April Rainfall ver the given Regin in Kenya. 23 rd March, 2016 Allcatin f percentage Marks 15 30 th March, 2016 15 CAT 1 16 th March 2016 15 CAT 2 23 rd March 2016 15 TOTAL MARKS 100 PRACTICAL NO. 1: CODE THE SOUNDING
Objective: The practical is aimed at enabling the student t be cmpetent in cding the upper air data. Tls a) WMO MANNUAL ON CODING b) Upper air DATA Instructins 1. Cde the data assigned t yu. S/N STUDENT DATA REG NO. 1 I56/81597/2015 Table 1A 2 I56/82715/2015 Table 1B TABLE 1A: STATION 63612 DATE 15-10-2015 TIME 12 GMT
LEVEL (mb) HEIGHT (m) TEMP(C) DEW-POINT ( SPEED (kts) DIR (Surface) 932 525 35 12 5 190 925 645 31 10 7 170 850 1330 30 8 7 155 800 2060 27 7 12 140 750 2570 23 2 16 145 700 3211 20-1 18 150 650 3845 13-6 21 185 600 4478 10-7 15 200 550 5207 6-13 11 240 500 5936-1 -18 18 310 450 6800-3 -27 22 330 400 7664-11 -38 22 350 350 8430-18 -49 20 330 300 11033-21 17 350 250 12510-33 26 340 200 14321-35 25 270 170 14580-43 27 260 150 15209-55 22 210 120 16994-64 24 240 100 18453-71 27 200 90 19298-65 27 180 80 20242-59 23 170 70 21306-61 25 140 60 22536-43 24 150 50 24001-41 20 140 40 25784-28 22 320 30 28086-21 22 300 20 31327-18 25 315 10 36875-13 20 290
TABLE 1B: STATION 63820 DATE 22-11-2015 TIME 18 GMT LEVEL (mb) HEIGHT (m) TEMP( C) DEW-POINT( C) SPEED (kts) DIR (Surface) 955 515 29 16 3 10 925 635 25 14 6 10 850 1320 24 12 10 25 800 2050 21 11 12 40 750 2560 17 6 19 35 700 3201 14 3 23 30 650 3835 7-2 25 5 600 4468 4-3 15 20 550 5197 0-9 12 60 500 5926-7 -14 18 130 450 6790-9 -23 28 150 400 7654-17 -34 22 190 350 8420-24 -45 20 210 300 11023-27 17 190 250 12500-39 24 160 200 14311-41 26 90 170 14570-49 25 80 150 15199-61 21 30 120 16984-70 23 60 100 18443-77 25 20 90 19288-71 24 0 80 20232-65 23 10 70 21296-67 26 40 60 22526-49 23 30 50 23991-47 20 40 40 25774-34 21 220 30 28076-27 28 240 20 31317-24 26 225 10 36865-19 20 250
PRACTICAL NO. 2: PLOTTING THE SOUNDING ON A T Objective: The practical is aimed at enabling the student t plt the sunding n T And cmpute the cnvective parameters. Tls c) A table f cded Temp Reprt d) A chart (T ) e) Clred pencils (Red, Yellw, Green and Blue) Instructins 2. Extract the Temp reprt fr the allcated statin and date frm the fllwing website http://www.gimet.cm/synpsc.phtml.en 3. Print a thermdynamic diagram frm this manual ( Yu culd get ne frm the department r KMD Dagreti Crner) 4. Sunding fr tw cnsecutive days as assigned shuld be at the same time between 11hr and 18hr lcal time f the statin allcated 5. Plt the given temperature and dew pint temperature fr the tw days n the same T gram and answer the fllwing questins with regard t the secnd day f yur data. a) Indicate the layers that experienced warming/ cling and mistening / drying. b) Determine the LCL, equivalent ptential temperature, lifted Index. c) Find the thermal wind in the layer between the fllwing layers; 800-700, 700-600, 600-500, 500-400 and 400-300mb. d) Find the relative humidity, specific humidity and vapr pressure at surface, 800mb,700mb, 600mb, 500mb, and 400mb S/N DATES STATION STUDENT REG NO. 1 21 st and 22 nd Nv 2015 68263, Pretria Irene (Suth Africa I56/81597/2015 2 1 st and 2 nd August 2015 94120, Darwin Airprt (Australia) I56/82715/2015
I56/81597/2015 METAR EGSS 200450Z AUTO 31002KT 2800 HZ BKN001 OVC023 01/M00 Q1018= METAR EGNH 191720Z 00000KT 5000 HZ FEW012 SCT027 04/02 Q1017= METAR EGLC 201050Z 22004KT 170V250 9000 BKN028 02/M02 Q1021= I56/82715/2015 METAR HTKJ 191700Z 06010KT 9999 FEW028CB BKN030 26/20 Q1013 NOSIG= METAR HTTB 201100Z 00000KT 9999 FEW022 BKN070 25/19 Q1018 HTTB 201000Z 00000KT 9999 FEW022 BKN070 25/19 Q1019= METAR HTDA 200400Z 27012KT 9999 SCT019 FEW021CB OVC070 24/24 Q1011 TEMPO 8000 SHRA=
PRACTICAL 4: PREPARING A SIGMET Objective: The practical is aimed at enabling the student t be able t write a SIGMET Tls a) A table f weather messages b) The ICAO guide fr writing SIGMET S/N STUDENT REG NO. 1 I56/81597/2015 DATA a)the SIGMET fr bserved embedded thunderstrm extending abve 4,1000ft was issued by Mauritius n 1 st f January 2016 at 08.28GMT which was expected t be used between 8.30 GMT t 12.30 GMT. The thunder cell was statinary and the intensity was nt changing within the area. ( 10 00 S,60 00 E), ( 10 00 S,66 00 E), ( 13 00 S,67 00 E), ( 17 00 S,58 00 E), ( 13 00 S,55 00 E), ( 10 00 S,60 00 E) the third SIGMET f the day. This was b) The Bracknell frecasting ffice in United Kingdm issued ut the 7 th SIGMET f the day n 1 st f January 2016 at 7.58 GMT fr the frecast fr the Scttish area f severe turbulence suth f latitude 61 O N which was t cver the depth frm the surface t 6,000ft. It was expected t be statinary and intensify with time. It was expected t ccur between 8 t 12 GMT. c)the SIGMET fr bserved embedded thunderstrm extending abve 4,5000ft was issued by Brazzaville in the Republic f Cng n 1 st f January 2016 at 05.30Z which was expected t be used between 6.05z t 10.05z. The thunder cell was bserved west f the line frm The thunder cell was mving west ( 2 20 N,9 41 E) t ( 4 05 N,11 12 E) with a speed f 10knts and the intensity was nt changing. This was the first SEGMET f the day. 2 I56/82715/2015 a)the Bracknell frecasting ffice in United Kingdm issued ut the 5 th SIGMET f the day n 1 st f January 2016 at 7.55 GMT fr the frecast fr the Lndn area f severe turbulence nrth f the line frm ( 51 00 N,8 00 W ) t ( 53 00 N,3 00 E) which was t cver the depth frm the surface t 6,000ft. It was expected t be statinary and nt changing in intensify with time. It was expected t ccur between 8 t 12 GMT. b)the SIGMET fr bserved f three islated embedded thunderstrm cells whse tp was extending abve 4,1000ft was issued by Dakar in Senegal n 1 st f January 2016 at 07.50Z which was expected t be used between 08.05z t 12.00z. The thunder cells was bserved ver the fllwing are; the first cell in the are ( 2 55 N,11 14 W ), ( 3 26 N,14 19 W ), ( 5 56 N,15 42 W ), ( 6 00 N,13 48 W ) The secnd ( 5 00 N,18 38 W ), ( 4 19 N,21 00 W ), ( 5 00 N,22 30 W ), ( 5 40 N,2 00 W ) And the third ( 5 57 N,24 02 W ), ( 5 45 N,25 37 W ), ( 6 30 N,25 08 W ), ( 6 40 N,24 14 W )
c) The thunder cells were mving west with a speed f 5knts and the intensity was nt changing. This was the third SEGMET f the day. The SIGMET fr frecasted embedded thunderstrm extending abve 3,5000ft was issued by Jhannesburg n 1 st f January 2016 at 06.55z which was expected t be used between 6.00z t 11.00z. The thunder cell was expected within the ceanic area. This ( 27 30 S,14 24 E), ( 27 30 S,15 00 E), ( 28 54 S,15 00 E), was the first SIGMET f the day.. PRACTICAL NO. 4: DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS ( Review f Weather pattern fr the allcated seasn Review the bserved f Rainfall pattern ver and Kenya fr a perid f three mnths, fr the seasn and year yu have been and discuss the evlutin f the Synptic glbal scale systems that were assciated with it. Objective: The bjective f this practical is t enable the student t gain skill in analyzing the synptic weather systems and glbal (planetary) systems that influence weather ver Kenya Tls: a) The mnthly analysis data daily frm the NCEP web site and Kenya Meterlgical Services (KMS) The charts will include; surface charts, lw level, medium and upper level.. Prcedure 1) Each student shall be allcated a year t carry ut diagnstic study. 2) The students are expected t hand in a written reprt f the systems that prevailed during the year f study. 3) The students shall dwn lad the NCEP analysis field and mnthly basis. and statin rainfall ver Kenya. 4) Plt the mnthly (i.e. Octber 2015, Nvember 2015 / December 2015 and January 2016 r and May) rainfall ttals and anmaly.. 5) Plt the winds ttal and anmaly, geptential, stream functin, velcity ptential, vrticity, SST patterns.etc 6) Discuss hw the systems may have influenced the rainfall.
TABLE: The perid assigned t student. S/N STUDENT DATA REG NO. 1 I56/81597/2015 Octber and Nvember 2015 2 I56/82715/2015 December 2015 and January 2016 PRACTICAL NO 5 FOR 2016 PREDICTION OF THE APRIL AND MAY RAINFALL Predictin f April and May rainfall ver a given area (statin ) using at least fur methds eg. analgue, multiple regressin, persistence, cnditinal prbability. Objective: The bjective f this practical is t enable the student gain skills in predicting seasnal rainfall using statistical methds. Tls: a)the predictand, mnthly rainfall (Each students will be assigned sme regin which they will predict the mnthly rainfall). Steps b) Predictrs, QBO, SST, SOI, SLP, Wind etc a) Cmputer sft ware; statistical sft wares e.g. Excel, Systat, Climlab. 1) Identify the predictrs fr each f the tw mnths. 2) Develp a mdel fr each mnth. 3) Give a frecast. TABLE 1 S/N STATION/ AREA STUDENT REG NO.NAME 1 MOMBASA I56/81597/2015 2 NAIROBI I56/82715/2015
http://www.esrl.naa.gv/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries.pl
Synp f a landstatin The basic frm f the SYNOP bulletin fr a landstatin is: AAXX YYGGiw IIiii irixhvv Nddff 1snTTT 2snTdTdTd 4PPPP 5appp 6RRRtR 7wwW1W2 8NhCLCMCH The rain grup (6RRRtR) is nt pltted. All ther grups will be pltted using the plt mdel in
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