U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Crop Update 2015 Summer Meeting and Technical Conference JULY 31 Mark Hodges Plains Grains, Inc.
Overview 2015 HRW wheat crop early information Growing conditions and production outlook Southern Plains (Oklahoma/Texas) ; Kansas; Northern plains; the PNW Quality data Charts and maps Summary
US HRW Production Region Source US Wheat Associates
Now for the 2014/15 crop
Right After We Review the 2012/2013 & 2013/2014 Crops Drought Quote... During the drought and the dust storms of the 1930s a Colorado rancher reportedly said, The only difference between the Great Plains and the Sahara Desert is a bunch of damned fools aren t trying to farm the Sahara Desert."
2012/13 HRW OLD Crop Quality Proteins averaged mostly over 12.5% (but over 13.5% in the Gulf Tributary states). Wide variability from region to region (the west vs. the I-35 corridor (i.e.wichita) and the northern/northwestern US) Drought stressed conditions resulted in lower production southern plains with higher proteins. (don t lose that thought ) Test weights & TKW s lower on average HRW Strength and volume were average to slightly lower. U.S. Mills watched springs/winter relationship. Winter wheat substituted spring wheat or vice versa New crop transitions later than normal.
Southern HRW growing areas ground zero for 2014 drought.
2014 HRW Crop Conditions Most areas had good moisture at planting. Acceptable stands. Mostly good secondary root systems. Close to average number of acres were grazed. Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did varying degrees of damage. Wheat that was headed had the least damage. Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2 weeks following the freeze. Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling period. Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS USDA weekly crop ratings were 2 nd worst Kansas on record
2015 HRW Crop Conditions Most areas had good moisture at planting. Acceptable stands. Mostly good secondary root systems. Close to average number of acres were grazed. Late hard freeze in southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas did varying degrees of damage. Wheat that was headed had the least damage. Later wheat had the most damage and did not show up for over 2 weeks (or more) following the freeze. Crop conditions continued to decline during critical filling period. Wide spread dry conditions from Western Ks to Central KS USDA weekly crop ratings were 2 nd worst Kansas on record
2014 HRW Crop Conditions Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly. Record heat first of May. Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays. Harvest faced many challenges. Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting. Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects. Overall, rains affected timing of harvest
2015 HRW Crop Conditions Crop was 2-3 weeks behind, but caught up rapidly. Record heat first of May. Then record rainfall in June caused harvest delays. Harvest faced many challenges. Rains in panhandles, central Oklahoma and Kansas delayed cutting. Lack of custom cutters due to poor prospects. Overall, rains affected timing of harvest
60-Day Observed Precipitation 7/22/2014
NWS 30 Day Observed Precipitation June 3, 2015
Drought in the Southern HRW growing areas started to shrink by the end of September 2014
Drought in the Southern HRW growing areas had all but disappeared by mid June 2015
2015 HRW Harvest Activity: Central/Southern U.S.
2015 Southern Plains
2015 Southern Plains
Kansas Outlook
2015 HRW Harvest Activity: Northern U.S.
Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy., Mont. and PNW HRW Colorado benefitted from late rains. 2015 production 88 million bu. 3% increase Nebraska 2015 55 million bu Down 23% South Dakota 2015 39 million bu Down 34% Montana 94 mi bu Up 3% hot weather could damage crop
Colo., Neb., Dakotas, Wy., Mont. and PNW HRW (repeat of 2014) Wyoming 7 million bu. Down 1% North Dakota 12 mi bu Down 56% Acres down 58% PNW, much like Montana could suffer some damage due to 100 degree plus temperatures during the later stages of crop development. Harvest has begun in some limited areas of all 3 states. Hail storms have caused losses as well. Crop maturity/harvest well ahead of schedule.
www.plainsgrains.org Interactive Maps Protein Test Weight TKW Moisture Dockage Harvest updates posted on US Wheat Associates website uswheat.org
2015 Gulf Tributary HRW Grade Distribution* *Partial *Partial
2015 Gulf HRW Evaluation based on individual protein samples* *Partial Low Protein Medium Protein High Protein - Represents all samples less than 11.5% protein*. (10%) Represents all samples between 11.5% and 12.5% protein*. (44%) Represents all samples greater than 12.5% protein*. (46%) *12% Moisture Basis
2015* Gulf HRW Wheat Grade Data *Partial Low Med High 2015 2014 5-Year Test Weight (lb/bu) 60.1 59.0 58.2 58.7 60.3 (kg/hl) 79.1 77.6 76.7 77.3 79.3 Damaged Kernels (%) 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 Foreign Material (%) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 Shrunken & Broken (%) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 0.9 Total Defects (%) 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.6
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Test Weight Dist. (lb/bu) *Partial
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Test Weight Dist. (kg/hl) *Partial
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW TKW Distribution *Partial
2015* Gulf HRW Wheat Non-Grade Data *Partial Low Med High 2015 2014 5-Year Dockage (%) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 Moisture (%) 11.1 11.9 11.7 11.7 12.2 Protein (12% mb) 10.9 12.2 13.2 12.5 13.8 (0% mb) 12.4 13.9 15.0 14.2 15.1 Ash (14% mb) 1.49 1.59 1.65 1.61 1.48 (0% mb) 1.74 1.85 1.91 1.87 1.72
2015*/2014/2013/2012/2011/2010 Gulf HRW Protein Distribution *Partial
2015 PARTIAL Gulf HRW Wheat Non-Grade Data Low Med High 2015 2014 5-Year Thousand Kernel Wt. (g) 30.4 29.3 28.6 29.1 27.7 Kernel Diameter (mm) 2.61 2.58 2.58 2.58 2.51 Sedimentation (cc) - Falling Number (sec) 393 400 404 401 382
Summary U.S. HRW story is short production year on year on year due to drought in some states coupled with hot weather during grainfill (northern and PNW states), hail and STRIPE RUST (southern and central Plains). Even with the shorter crop and challenges, there will be milling wheat available. Early bake data. Protein quantity is available. Protein quality will be lower than the last 2 years. Year of the BLENDER Wheat plantings to begin in 45 days El Nino?
2015 HRW WHEAT QUALITY SURVEY The data contained in this presentation were collected, tested and analyzed by PLAINS GRAINS, INC., an organization of the HRW States of Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Wyoming, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Oregon, Idaho and North Dakota in cooperation with USDA- ARS Hard Winter Wheat Quality Laboratory, Manhattan, Kansas. For more detailed information about the 2014 HRW crop go to: www.plainsgrains.org