Rainfall variation and frequency analysis study in Dharmapuri district, India

Indian Journal of Geo Marine Sciences Vol. 45 (11), November 216, pp. 156-1565 Rainfall variation and frequency analysis study in Dharmapuri district, India V. Rajendran 1*, R. Venkatasubramani 2 & G. Vijayakumar 3 1 Department of Civil Engineering,Kathir College of Engineering, Coimbatore, Pin -64162, Tamil Nadu, India. 2 Department of Civil Engineering,Sri Krishna College of Technology,Coimbatore, Pin- 64142, Tamil Nadu, India. 3 Department of Civil Engineering,Excel College of Technology,Komarapalayam,Pin-63733, Tamil Nadu, India * [E-mail: rajcivil29@yahoo.com ] Received 27 April 215 ; revised 7 May 215 Thirty two years (1982-213) daily rainfall data for Dharmapuri District was collected from the TWAD (Tamil Nadu Water Supply and Drainage Board) to analyse the nature of distribution and frequency of rainfall. Average annual rainfall for 32 years data was calculated as 938.1 mm and average annual rainy days were 45.9. Maximum monthly rainfall (197.58 mm) was received during the month of September which was mostly by southwest monsoon. Maximum rainy days were in October (8.6 days). The rainfall received during the winter, summer, southwest and northeast monsoon seasons were 1.5, 181., 453.5, 293. mm, respectively. Rainfall frequency analysis done by Weibull s method revealed that the annual average rainfall of 938.1 mm can be expected to occur once in 2.5 years at a probability of 4 %. Monthly dependable rainfall (p>75 %) is expected to occur in every year during the months from September to October. [Keywords:Rainfall distribution; Weibull distribution; Seasonal rainfall: Rainy days; Frequency analysis] Introduction In India, about 6 % of total net sown area comes under rain fed lands 1. But uncertainty in production due to fluctuations in total rainfall, changes in its distribution, etc. Affect the livelihoods of the large population dependant on agriculture in the country. Considering the importance and issues of rainfed farming, a study on distribution and frequency of rainfall in the Dharmapuri district of Tamil Nadu was undertaken which will be useful for proper crop planning. Materials and Methods Dharmapuri district is located between latitudes N 11 o 47 and 12 o 33 and longitudes E 77 o 2 and 78 o 4. The total geographical area of the district is 4497.77 km 2 (3.46 % of Tamil Nadu geographical area). The district economy is mainly agrarian in nature and nearly 7 % of the workforce is dependent on agriculture and allied activities. The district is one among most backward and drought prone area in the state. The climate of the Dharmapuri district is generally warm. Normal annual rainfall over the district varies. The normal annual rainfall over the district varies from about 76 to 91 mm. The normal onset and withdrawal of SW monsoon is June first week and September fourth week, and that of NW monsoon is October first week and December third week respectively. Daily rainfall data for 32 Years (1982 to 213) were collected from the TWAD (Tamil Nadu Water Supply and Drainage Board) and was converted into annual, monthly and weekly rainfall. The relationship between rainfall andrainy days was found by plotting annual, monthly and weekly rainfall against rainy days. Frequency analysis is used to predict how often certain values of a variable phenomenon may occur and to access the reliability of the prediction. Precipitation is most important and complex phenomena. Rainfall is a random hydrologic process and when arranged in a chronological order, it constitutes the time series of rainfall data. The studies have also been carried out to analyze rainfall data using Markov chain model for identifying appropriate cropping systems in different regions 2to7 Probability of each event is calculated by Weibull s method 8 P = M / (N+1) * 1 Where, P - is the probability of each event in percent M- is the order number of the each event when the data are arranged in decreasing order N- is the total number of events in the data series. The return periods (recurrence interval) were calculated by using the formula. Return period,t = 1 / P = N+1 / M

INDIAN J. MAR. SCI., VOL. 45, NO. 11, NOVEMBER 216 1561 Results & Discussion Annual rainfall and rainy days Annual rainfall data and rainy days for 32 years from 1982 to 213 are given in Table 1. Maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in 1996 (1541.2 mm) and 23 (347 mm) with 61 and 24 rainy days, respectively. Average for these 32 years rainfall was 938.1 mm. It was also observed that 13 years (4 %) received rainfall above average, however, no general trend in rainfall occurrence was observed during these years. Average annual rainy days were 45.9 and varied from 24 days (23 & 213) to 68 days (211). Table 1. Annual rainfall and rainy days for a period of 24-213 Year Annual Rainfall Annual Rainy days One day maximum rainfall 1982 758.4 38 8. 1983 913.4 46 81.6 1984 699.9 38 67. 1985 718.6 44 64. 1986 853.7 44 61. 1987 855.7 46 64. 1988 94.3 5 138. 1989 711.8 33 145. 199 734.3 36 79.4 1991 1242.7 48 129. 1992 787.7 49 85. 1993 949. 55 129.4 1994 778.3 42 54.4 1995 1453.9 53 143.4 1996 1541.2 61 12.4 1997 1358.7 49 136. 1998 17.4 5 145. 1999 948.6 48 122.2 2 133.8 47 114.2 21 1298.6 4 126.4 22 73. 27 93.6 23 347. 24 56. 24 878.2 61 91. 25 126. 57 59. 26 99. 58 15. 27 862. 41 97. 28 728. 33 84. 29 727. 54 61. 21 126. 57 59. 211 1247. 68 73. 212 756. 47 68. 213 853.5 24 99. No specific trend was observed, however the rainy days were above average during 12 years. Although a linear relationship was seen between amount of rainfall and rainy days, however the maximum rainfall does not occur in the corresponding rainy days, which may be due to fact that heavy rain occurred on a single day during monsoon season. Monthly rainfall and rainy days The mean monthly rainfall and rainy days are presented in Fig. 1. Maximum rainfall (197.6 mm) was received in the month of September during South West monsoon season. Minimum rainfall of 4.4 mm was received in January. Maximum rainfall (453.5 mm) was received in the month of June to September during southwest monsoon season. Minimum rainfall of 17.2 mm was received by January and February during winter season. Mean monthly rainfall was 1.5 mm and the month except January and February received below the mean. The number of rainy days goes in hands with the mean monthly rainfall. The rainfall received during the winter,summer, southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon are 1.5, 181., 453.5 and 293.

1562 RAJ et al.: RAINFALL VARIATION AND FREQUENCY ANALYSIS STUDY mm,mm respectively (Fig. 2). It can be concluded that maximum rainfall was received during southwest monsoon. 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 47 Rainfall 1 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 4 43 46 49 52 Standard Week 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Rainy days Fig. 1. Mean monthly rainfall & rainy days for the period of 1982 to 213 observed that the variations in weekly rainfall showed fluctuations up to thirty week. There after rainfall showed an increasing trend and gradually decreased to the fifty two week. The maximum weekly rainfall was recorded in the thirty nine week (56.1 mm) followed by forty three week (46.1 mm). No rainfall was received in three week to eight week. More than twenty weeks (38 %) received rainfall higher than the average weekly rainfall 18 mm. It can be observed that the weekly rainy days moves up and down and reaches the maximum in thirty nine week. The maximum number of rainy days was recorded from thirty two to forty six week. The weekly rainfall was classified in to 6 classes and number of weeks under each classes (Table 2). It can be observed that most of the weeks the rainfall is less than 2 mm (9 %). Rainfall 5 4 3 2 1 SWM NEM Winter Summer Season 25 2 15 1 5 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 Rainfall Jan Feb Mar Apri May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 8 6 4 2 Rainy days Fig. 2. Seasonal distribution of rainfall and rainy days Weekly rainfall and rainy days Weekly rainfall and rainy days against standard week was plotted in Fig. 3. From the figure, it was Standard Week Fig.3. Mean weekly rainfall & rainy days for the period of 1982 to 213 Table 2. Number of weeks with different amount of rainfall Amount of rainfall (mm) Year >= > 2 > 4 > 6 > 8 > 1 1982 39 4 6 1 2 1983 4 6 2 2 2 1984 4 7 2 1 1 1 1985 38 8 2 2 2 1986 39 6 3 1 1 2 1987 38 8 4 2 1988 39 4 6 2 1 1989 41 7 1 2 1 199 44 3 2 1 2 1991 38 5 1 3 5 1992 42 2 1 4 2 1 1993 36 5 8 2 1 1994 37 8 3 4 1995 3 9 5 1 4 3 1996 33 5 3 5 1 5 1997 35 5 4 4 4 1998 36 7 5 2 2

INDIAN J. MAR. SCI., VOL. 45, NO. 11, NOVEMBER 216 1563 1999 39 5 1 3 2 2 2 38 3 2 1 1 7 21 38 4 1 1 3 5 22 41 2 5 1 1 2 23 46 2 4 24 39 5 2 2 3 1 25 38 4 3 2 3 2 26 38 6 3 2 3 27 41 5 2 1 3 28 42 4 2 1 3 29 4 3 5 4 21 38 4 3 2 3 2 211 37 1 5 4 1 4 212 37 8 4 2 1 213 46 1 1 1 3 Total 1243 155 91 62 43 7 Mean 46. 5.7 3.4 2.3 1.6 2.6 Relationship between rainfall and rainy days It is generally believed that total rainfall is the function of total number of rainy days. The correlation coefficient between the two revels that there exist a linear relationship between these two. It was revealed that the rain fall was higher than the average in 21 whereas rainy days in the corresponding years were marginally lower than the average. Weekly rainfall against weekly rainy days was plotted (Fig. 4) and the regression equation was developed between the variables rainfall (Y) and rainy days (X), in which 9 % of the variables will follow this relationship 9 to11 6. 5. 4. y = 21.64x - 1.33 R² =.94 3. 2. 1.. -1...5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 Fig. 4. Relationship between rainfall and rainy days Rainfall frequency analysis Frequency analysis for 32 years annual rainfall data were done by Weibull s method. It revealed that an annual rainfall of 938.1 mm can be expected to occur once in 2.5 years at a probability of 4 % (Fig.5). The monthly dependable rainfall (with a probability > 75 percent) is expected to occur in every year during the month of April to December with higher accumulation during September to October period (Table 3). Rainfall that is expected to occur in other recurrence intervals is considered to be undependable.the frequency of minimum7 mm rainfallcan be expected to be equalled or exceeded once in 1.1 year with probability of 94% 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Annual Rainfall 1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931 Rank Return Period 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Fig. 5. Probability analysis of annual rainfall for the period 1982 213 Conclusion This study was focused for analysing the rainfall pattern of Dhamapuri one of the most frequent drought affected district located in semi arid region of Tamil Nadu. For this purpose daily rainfall data of 32 years (1982 to 213) was used to assess the weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual pattern of rainfall and its frequency. This study also evaluated the relationship between rainfall amount and rainy days. The results of this study can be used as a rough guide or preliminary work for designing the small soil & water conservation structures, study of groundwater recharge, surface drainage structures, irrigation water planning and management and contingent crop planning during drought periods. Returen period, year

1564 RAJ et al.: RAINFALL VARIATION AND FREQUENCY ANALYSIS STUDY Table 3.No. of weeks with different amount of rainfall Rank T P Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 33. 3. 35.1 117.8 125.2 259.6 271.5 167.2 328.4 384. 468.4 351. 228.2 199.6 2 16.5 6.1 32. 4.8 89.8 146. 224. 165.8 199.2 38.4 37.2 351. 22. 158. 3 11. 9.1 25.8 13.6 88. 138.8 219. 157.6 154. 339. 355.2 326.2 214. 141. 4 8.25 12.1 16. 7.8 5. 138.4 193.7 142. 149. 334.4 337.6 319.8 21. 134. 5 6.6 15.2 12.6 7. 49. 132.6 189.8 11.4 144. 221.4 32.2 281.4 174.2 119. 6 5.5 18.2 8. 7. 48. 131.4 151. 1.5 139. 28.5 297. 271.4 174. 93. 7 4.71 21.2 4.4. 39.8 129. 146.8 87.4 129. 178.8 294. 27. 163.2 93. 8 4.13 24.2 4.. 36.2 129. 134.6 87. 118.4 169. 256.8 257.6 127. 84. 9 3.67 27.3 3.. 17. 19.4 128. 86.1 115.4 159. 235.8 238.9 124. 45.8 1 3.3 3.3.. 13. 92.2 113. 78. 114.5 159. 232.2 189. 112.8 24. 11 3. 33.3.. 13. 77.4 18. 65. 14.6 157.5 231. 188.6 111.8 23.2 12 2.75 36.4.. 11. 71. 98.9 64.4 77.8 147. 227. 188.6 14.4 23.2 13 2.54 39.4.. 7.2 7. 95.7 62.6 55.8 146. 26.4 185.9 96.5 2.6 14 2.36 42.4.. 1.7 48. 92.7 6.8 51.2 136. 24.8 185.4 94. 2. 15 2.2 45.5... 46.6 91.2 42. 45. 113.1 199.7 184.8 89.2 2. 16 2.6 48.5... 36.5 89. 3. 45. 112.6 193.2 176. 67.4 16. 17 1.94 51.5... 31. 84.4 3. 41.6 17.2 193. 171.2 62.1 15.8 18 1.83 54.5... 3. 82. 29.4 38.9 15. 16.6 171. 55.6 14. 19 1.74 57.6... 23. 81. 29. 37.4 14.6 154. 159. 47. 12. 2 1.65 6.6... 22.8 81. 28. 29.2 94.6 14.3 154.2 44. 1.4 21 1.57 63.6... 17.4 8.2 22.4 26.6 91. 132. 125.8 41.8 1.2 22 1.5 66.7... 14. 71.3 12. 26.4 9. 131.6 121. 34.6 1.2 23 1.43 69.7... 13.2 7. 9. 24. 86.2 128.3 121. 34.4 8.3 24 1.38 72.7... 13. 69. 6.2 21. 58.8 125. 18. 3.1 6.6 25 1.32 75.8... 1. 63.6 4.6 18. 47.6 125. 66.2 13.2 5. 26 1.27 78.8... 7.6 6.. 13. 39.4 119.1 58.2 11.6. 27 1.22 81.8... 2.2 53.4. 8. 29. 118. 57.7 3.. 28 1.18 84.8... 2. 53.1. 6.2 25.2 113. 42... 29 1.14 87.9.... 44.4.. 17. 11. 28... 3 1.1 9.9.... 21.8.. 11. 93. 25.4.. 31 1.6 93.9....... 9.3 5.2 7.2.. 32 1.3 97.............

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