The enduring Louisiana rain and flooding of August 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
|
|
- Reginald Harmon
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 1. Introduction The enduring Louisiana rain and flooding of August 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Historic flooding impacted Louisiana on August 2016 (TWC 2016, USA Today 2016) causing over a billion dollars in estimated damages. This event was the ninth billion-dollar weather related disaster in the United States of At least 13 deaths were attributed to the flooding (AP 2016b). The maximum reported rainfall was inches at Watson, Louisiana. The range of extreme rainfall at observing sites in Florida and Louisiana ranged from inches in Panama City, Florida to in Brownfields Louisiana (NOAA/NCEP/WPC). Rivers and streams in Louisiana crested above flood stage with 11 gauges setting new record crests. During the event several locations had exceeded all-time record stages and forecasts indicated flood stages that had not been observed before on Comite and Amite rivers. Most of the record crests were archived on 13 and 14 th of August. As observed in 6-hour increments, the heavy rain moved over Louisiana around 0000 UTC 12 August 2016 (Fig. 1a). Intense rainbands were evident over the next 30 hours indicating flow about a cyclonic circulation (Fig. 1a-f). The maximum 6-hour rainfall in the Stage-IV rainfall data was over south-central Louisiana where 6-hour rainfall rates were over 300 mm (12 inches: Fig 2). Higher rates were indicated offshore. The maximum 12 hour rates were slightly higher than 400 mm in the same region. The 6-hour rates imply some areas had 2 inch an hour rates for prolonged periods. Many extreme rainfall events are often associated with extremely high rainfall rates (Brooks and Stensrud 2000). They showed that for the 1978 Johnstown flood that rain fell over about a 9 hour period with 3 hours of rainfall rates on the order of 1.5 to 2.0 inches per hour (see Fig. 2: Brooks and Stensrud 2000). Using hourly rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour they showed that extreme rainfall rates peak in the summer reaching a maximum in July, along the Gulf Coast from eastern Texas to western Florida. Their indicated that rainfall rates above 4 inches are relatively rare occurring about once per year (see their Fig. 4) and the climatological peak month is July. The maximum 24 hour rainfall (Fig. 3) and total rainfall for the event (Fig. 3) show an axis of heavy rainfall from the Gulf Coast northwestward across southern Louisiana. A broad region of the southern and eastern Louisiana had over 200 mm of rainfall. A few areas had 4-day totals in excess of 600 mm (24 inches) of rainfall. The 4-day total implies something about the enduring nature of the rainfall while the maximum 6-,12-, and 24-hour data show the periods of intense rainfall. A slow moving surface low moved over the region and was provided as an explanation for the rainfall. However, at 850 hpa a more intense cyclone was evident (Fig. 4). The 850 hpa cyclone had strong flow about the cyclone with -2 to -3s u-wind anomalies on the north side of the cyclone and +3 to +4s u-wind anomalies on the south side of the cyclone as it lumbered across Louisiana. Most of the rain fell south and west of the cyclone track.
2 This paper will present the pattern and GEFS quantitative precipitation forecasts associated with the historic and devastating Louisiana Floods of August This paper will also examine the forecast issues in the NCEP models related to predict both an intense and enduring rainfall event. 2. Methods and data The climate forecast system re-analysis (CFSR) data was used to reconstruct the pattern and the standardized anomalies associated with the event. The CFSR is used to show the pattern, which forecasters often use to gain confidence in a potential significant weather event. These same patterns, when forecast may produce high end QPF which may reinforce confidence in the forecast. The Stage-IV rainfall data (Seo 1998) was used to estimate the rainfall over several 6-,12-,24- hour periods from 10 to 15 August Data from 10 to 14 August were primarily used in the document. Unless otherwise indicated the 6-hour Stage-IV data were used. Analysis was conducted on 1-hour data over the same 6 days. Python was used to extract maximum rainfall rates and amounts over 1-,6-,12-, and 24-hour periods. The software retained the highest observed amount of for the specified duration at each grid point. Data was produced locally using archived GRIB files from the CFSRV2, GFS, GEFS, and HRRR. The focus here was on the GEFS ability to predict an intense and enduring rainfall event. The Average Recurrence interval images for the GFS were produced using NOAA14 ARI data in GRIB format. 3. Results a. The pattern The large scale pattern at 500 hpa (Fig. 5) showed large subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern United States. Most of the region had 500 hpa heights in the +1 to +2σ range. There was a weak trough over the intermountain West. In these 12 hour data, a weak negative 500 hpa height anomaly was present over Louisiana at 0000 UTC August The weak 500 hpa disturbance was associated with a strong 850 hpa circulation (Fig. 4) and a blob of deep moisture as indicated by the precipitable water (PW) fields (Fig. 6 & 7) which showed very high PW values and PW anomalies over +3σ above normal. A frontal boundary with lower PW values and below normal PW values over Oklahoma eventually interacted wth the PW blob on 13 August (Fig. 7d-f). The high PW air, with values over 60 mm on the south side of the 850 hpa low were relatively well aligned with the heavy rainfall areas (Fig.2). The surface pressure field (Fig 8) showed a weak cyclone with pressure anomalies on the order of -1 to -2σ as it moved across Louisiana on August The 850 hpa circulation and the strong winds about this circulation likely played a critical role in the rainfall (Figs. 4 & 9). The
3 850 hpa v-winds anomalies showed a stronger signal than the 850 hpa u-wind anomalies. Clearly, there was a strong circulation at 850 hpa. b. Rainfall Plots of the rainfall were shown in the Introduction showing the 6-hour rainfall from 0000 UTC 12 to 0600 UTC 13 August 2016 (Fig. 1). The heaviest 6-hour rainfall rates were observed on the 13 th as shown in Figure 10. The rainfall and rainfall rates dropped of significantly after 0600 UTC 14 August Though not shown the 6-hour and 12-hour (Fig. 11) maximum rainfall amounts in southern Louisiana were observed on the 13 th. The maximum 24 hour period was dominated by the 24- hour period ending at 1800 UTC 13 August 2016 (Fig. 11). The data in Figure 11 show extremely high rainfall for the 12- and 24-hour periods ending at 1800 UTC 13 August values which were not present at 1200 UTC. These data can be gleaned from the 6-hour plots of the QPE ending at each time period. c. GEFS Forecasts Planview images of GEFS QPFs were examined to see how the GEFS forecast the event. Six GEFS forecast cycles valid for the 48 hour period ending at 1200 UTC 13 August and the 72 hour period ending at 1200 UTC 14 August are presented. The 48 hour mean QPF (Fig. 12) with any members 200 mm contour indicated that the GEFS was able to predict a widespread heavy rainfall event in the central Gulf. Longer range forecasts (Fig. 12f-d) had the heavy rainfall and the axis of heavy rainfall too far east. Only shorter range forecasts were able to produced 200 mm of QPF. Thus, the probability of 100 mm or more QPF from these same GEFS cycles are shown in Figure 13. The 72 hour mean QPF for these 6 cycles and the 150 mm contour from each member is shown in Figure 14. As in the 48-hour accumulation window, earlier forecasts of heavy rainfall were too far east. But as the forecast length decreased the mean QPF came up, shifted over Louisiana and there were several member that forecast in excess of 150 mm of QPF. The GEFS accumulated QPF is shown for Baton Rouge for two GEFS forecast cycles (Fig. 15). The GEFS initialized at 0000 UTC 12 August showed 75 to over 400 mm of QPF. The mean QPF was closer to 200 mm. The GEFS was able to forecast heavy rain and an enduring heavy rainfall event at Baton Rouge. The 1200 UTC 11 August GEFS had a similar forecast with a larger spread and lower mean. Spatial and temporal issues were evident in longer range forecasts. The forecast from all GEFS runs from 6 to 142 hours out showing the QPF for the 24 hour period near Baton Rouge are shown in Figure 16. These data show longer range forecasts had a light rain event. The GEFS did not converge on the 24 hour period of heavy rainfall until about 36 to 48 hours before the event and like the plumes, showed a large spread. The lower QPF at 6, 12, 18 hours before the event reflect that shorter range forecasts did not extend long enough and are artificially lower due to spin-up and shorter accumulation periods. The main message is there were clues for heavy rainfall with about 2 days lead time using point data.
4 d. Return periods Not accomplished yet 4. Conclusions A slow moving tropical wave and a plume of deep moisture brought heavy rain and historic flooding to Louisiana on August At 850 hpa a closed cyclone with strong winds around the cyclone lumbered across the State. The 850 hpa u- and v-wind anomalies were in excess of -3 and +4σ respectively with this system. The strong 850 hpa cyclone and the above normal precipitable water likely contributed to the conditions and moisture to produce an enduring and intense rainfall event. Despite some spatial and temporal issues, the NCEP GEFS forecast some incredible rainfall amounts in the Gulf States with at least 5 days of lead time and got the general potential for extreme rainfall for locations in Louisiana with about 2-days leadtime. In addition to the forecast amounts, the GEFS forecast an intense and enduring rainfall event. The 6-hour Stage-IV data were used here to examine the extreme rainfall. The 6-,12-, and 24- hour maximum rainfall rates were impressive. May locations saw several periods of in excess of 100 mm of rainfall and 24-hour rates exceeded 300 mm. The 1-hour data could be used to find the periods of maximum 1-hour rates and the times of these extreme rates. They key finding examining the 6-,12-, and 24-hour rainfall rates was the intensity and the enduring nature of the event. The GEFS correctly forecast a heavy rainfall event in the central Gulf States. Longer range forecasts had difficulty with the location of the heavy rain with the axis initially located too far east. The axis slowly shifted over Louisiana and the GEFS attempted to show the potential for 100 to 200 mm of QPF over portions of Louisiana. It under forecast the extreme values and it could not get the location correct. However, the model provided excellent signals for a potential high end rainfall event and an enduring rainfall event. The GEFS point data showed that the GEFS was able to show the potential for extremely heavy rainfall for a point such as Baton Rouge. But due to temporal and spatial errors the signal was useful with about 1.5 to 2 days of lead time. This was best illustrated in Figure 16. The plan view data provided additional lead time to the potential for an extreme rainfall event in the general region but these data were unable to outline the exact regions. The rainfall forecast by the GEFS was quite large, with member forecasting over 200 mm of QPF. Good knowledge of the GEFS QPF climatology would go a long way to put these data into a more useful context. Clearly, when the model forecasts a record or near record event they can and often do occur in the real atmosphere. 5. Acknowledgements The Pennsylvania State University for real-time data access. 6. References 7.
5 The Weather Channel: 2016: Historic 2016 Flooding in Louisiana after 2+ Feet of Rain Sends Rivers to Record Levels. TWC USA Today 2016: How much rain fell in Louisiana? USA Today. Associated Press 2016: Louisiana's Historic August Flooding Likely the State's Second Billion- Dollar Disaster of And similar stories AP Associated Press 2016b: Louisiana flood death toll rises to 13. And similar stories AP Benjamin, S.G, and contributors: 2016: A North American Hourly Assimilation and Model Forecast Cycle: The Rapid Refresh. MWR, 144, Brooks, HE and D.J. Stensrud: 200: Climatology of Heavy Rain Events in the United States from Hourly Precipitation Observations. MWR, 128, Ebert, E. E., 2001: Ability of a poor man s ensemble to predict the probability and distribution of precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, Juanzhen Sun, Ming Xue, James W. Wilson, Isztar Zawadzki, Sue P. Ballard, Jeanette Onvlee- Hooimeyer, Paul Joe, Dale M. Barker, Ping-Wah Li, Brian Golding, Mei Xu, and James Pinto, 2014: Use of NWP for Nowcasting Convective Precipitation: Recent Progress and Challenges. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, Maddox,R. A,, C. F. Chappell, and L. R. Hoxit, 1979: Synoptic and Meso-α Scale Aspects of Flash Flood Events, Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, , DOI: Doswell, C.A,, H. E. Brooks, and R.A. Maddox, 1996: Flash Flood Forecasting: An Ingredients-Based Methodology, Wea. Forecasting, 11, :DOI: WP 2016: Two dead after severe flash flood in Maryland. Washington Post 31 July WP 2016: This is how and off-the-charts flood ravaged Ellicott City. Washington Post 1 August Weaver, S. C., and S. Nigam, 2008: Variability of the Great Plains low level jet: Large scale circulation context and hydroclimate impacts. J. Climate,21,
6
7 Figure 1. Stage-IV estimated precipitation (QPE) in 6-hour increments from a) 0000 UTC 12 August 2016 through f) 0600 UTC 13 August Return to text.
8 Figure 2. Maximum observed rainfall in the Stage-IV data during the event showing the maximum 6- hour and maximum 12-hour rainfall. Shading as in color bar. Contours every 100 mm beginning at 200 mm. Return to text.
9 Figure 3. As in Figure 2 except for the maximum 24-hour rainfall in any 24 hour period and the total rainfall. Return to text.
10 Figure 4. CFSR 850 hpa winds and u-wind anomalies in 12 hour increments from a) 1200 UTC 11 through f) 0000 UTC 14 August Winds in ms-1. Anomalies are in the color bar. Return to text.
11 Figure 5. As in Figure 4 except for 500 hpa heights and anomalies every 12 hours from a) 1200 UTC 11 to f) 0000 UTC 14 August Return to text.
12 Figure 6. As in Figure 4 except for precipitable water (mm) and precipitable water anomalies from a) 0600 UTC 12 to f) 1200 UTC 12 August Return to text.
13 Figure 7. As in Figure 6 except for the period of a) 1800 UTC 12 August through f) 0000 UTC 14 August Return to text.
14 Figure 8. As in Figure 7 except for mean sea level pressure every 6 hours from a) 1200 UTC 12 to f) 1800 UTC 13 August Return to text.
15 Figure 9. As in Figure 4 except for 850 hpa v-wind anomalies. Return to text.
16 Figure 10. As in Figure 1 except for 6-hour rainfall from 0000 UTC 13 August through 0600 UTC 14 August Return to text.
17 igure 11. Accumulated maximum 12-hour (upper) and 24-hour (lower) QPF at each grid point for the periods ending at 1200 and 1800 UTC 13 August eturn to text.
18 Figure 12. NCEP GEFS forecasts of QPF for the 48 hour period ending at 1200 UTC 13 August Spaghetti plots show each member 200 mm contour of present. GEFS cycles are initialized at a) 1200 UTC 10 August, b) 0000 UTC 10 August, c) 1200 UTC 9 August, d) 0000 UTC 9 August, e) 1200 UTC 08 August, and f) 0000 UTC 8 August Return to text.
19 Figure 13. As in Figure 12 except for the probability of 100 mm or more QPF and the 100 mm mean contour if present. Return to text.
20 Figure 14. As in Figure 12 except for the 72 hour period ending at 1200 UTC 14 August Return to text.
21 Figure 15. Plume diagrams of NCEP GEFS QPF for a point near Baton Rouge, LA showing accumulated QPF (green) and instantaneous QPF (gray with dots) from each of the 21 GEFS members. Values in mm. Return to text.
22 Figure 16. Predictability horizon diagram showing 24-hour QPF for a point near Baton Rouge valid at 1800 UTC 13 August The horizontal axis shows the forecast length of each GEFS forecast with each point representing a QPF from a GEFS member. Y-axis shows the scale of the QPF in mm. Return to text.
23
Historic Ellicott City Flood of 30 July Introduction
Historic Ellicott City Flood of 30 July 2016 by Richard H. Grumm and Norman W. Junker Satellite Contributions by Sheldon Kusselson National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Intense
More informationSouthern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Southern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Heavy rains (Fig. 1) produced record flooding in northeastern Texas
More informationHRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of October 2014
HRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of 13-14 October 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA contributions by Charles Ross 1. Overview A deep
More informationHistoric Central Pennsylvania Flash Floods of 21 October 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
1. Introduction Historic Central Pennsylvania Flash Floods of 21 October 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 A slow moving frontal system produced heavy rainfall in
More informationHeavy rains and precipitable water anomalies August 2010 By Richard H. Grumm And Jason Krekeler National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Heavy rains and precipitable water anomalies 17-19 August 2010 By Richard H. Grumm And Jason Krekeler National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rain fell over the Gulf States,
More informationEastern United States Wild Weather April 2014-Draft
1. Overview Eastern United States Wild Weather 27-30 April 2014-Draft Significant quantitative precipitation bust By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA and Joel Maruschak Over
More informationSouthern United States Heavy rain and flood event 6-8 April 2014
Southern United States Heavy rain and flood event 6-8 April 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Heavy rainfall (Fig. 1) affected the southern United States from
More informationNew Zealand Heavy Rainfall and Floods
New Zealand Heavy Rainfall and Floods 1. Introduction Three days of heavy rainfall associated with a deep upper-level low (Fig. 1) brought flooding to portions of New Zealand (Fig. 2). The flooding was
More informationIndiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017
Indiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Slow moving thunderstorms brought 3 to 4 inches of rainfall to Indiana County, PA during
More informationHurricane Harvey the Name says it all. by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA
Hurricane Harvey the Name says it all by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA 16803. 1. Overview Hurricane Harvey crossed the Texas coast (Fig. 1) as a category
More informationNortheastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017
Northeastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A strong shortwave produced a stripe of precipitation
More informationMid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013
Abstract: Mid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA The relatively wet conditions during the first 16 days of April 2013 set the
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Abstract: Tropical Storm Debbie, standardized anomalies and heavy rainfall by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College
More informationHeavy Rainfall Event of June 2013
Heavy Rainfall Event of 10-11 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A 500 hpa short-wave moved over the eastern United States (Fig. 1) brought a surge of
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Heavy rainfall of 23 November 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A fast moving mid-tropospheric
More informationImpacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over
More information2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event
2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A retrograding 500 hpa cyclone and anticyclone (Fig. 1) set up deep southerly flow
More informationEarly May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains
Abstract: Early May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A deep 500 hpa cutoff developed in the southern Plains on 3 May 2013. It produced a
More informationSnow, freezing rain, and shallow arctic Air 8-10 February 2015: NCEP HRRR success story
Snow, freezing rain, and shallow arctic Air 8-10 February 2015: NCEP HRRR success story By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A short-wave (Fig. 1) moved over the strong
More informationNCEP Short-Range Ensemble forecasts of an historic rainfall event: The June 2006 East Coast Floods 1. INTRODUCTION
NCEP Short-Range Ensemble forecasts of an historic rainfall event: The 23-27 June 2006 East Coast Floods By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College PA 16803 And Norman W. Junker
More informationMinor Winter Flooding Event in northwestern Pennsylvania January 2017
1. Overview Minor Winter Flooding Event in northwestern Pennsylvania 12-13 January 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A combination of snow melt, frozen ground, and areas
More information2. Methods and data. 1 NWS Reno, NV report circulated in the LA Times story maximum wind was observed at 0900 AM 8 January 2017.
The California Extreme Precipitation Event of 8-10 January 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction A strong Pacific jet and a surge of
More informationTropical Storm Hermine: Heavy rainfall in western Gulf By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Tropical Storm Hermine: Heavy rainfall in western Gulf By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical storm Hermine, the eighth named tropical system
More informationPre-Christmas Warm-up December 2013-Draft
Pre-Christmas Warm-up 21-23 December 2013-Draft By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A large ridge over the west-central Atlantic (Fig.1) and trough moving into eastern
More informationThis paper will document the pattern which produced the record rainfall of 30 September The goal is to show the pattern the
The Historic Synoptic-Hybrid rainfall event 30 September 2010 By Richard Grumm And Michael Kozar National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A slow moving north-south oriented frontal
More informationSoutheastern Texas historic rain of 18 April 2016 by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Southeastern Texas historic rain of 18 April 2016 by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Extremely heavy rainfall across southeastern Texas
More informationMemorial Day Weekend 2013: Snow and Cold
Abstract: Memorial Day Weekend 2013: Snow and Cold By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A slow moving 500 hpa low and associated unseasonably cold air in the lower troposphere
More informationHeavy Rainfall and Flooding of 23 July 2009 By Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding of 23 July 2009 By Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rains fall over Pennsylvania and eastern New
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Abstract: West Coast Heavy Precipitation Event of January 2012 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803
More informationWinter Storm of 15 December 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Winter Storm of 15 December 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A complex winter storm brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain to central Pennsylvania.
More informationConvective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013
Convective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: A record rain event affected southern Lebanon County on 23 July
More information1. INTRODUCTION. For brevity times are referred to in the format of 20/1800 for 20 August UTC. 3. RESULTS
Heavy rains and precipitable water anomalies 20-23 August 2010-Draft By Jason Krekeler And Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rain fell across the central
More information1. INTRODUCTION. March. Local time used in text to define dates. 1 Due to UTC time the went passed 0000 UTC 31
New England Record Maker Rain Event of 29-30 March 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Contributions by Frank Nocera National Weather Service Office Taunton, MA 1. INTRODUCTION The second
More informationMid-Atlantic Ice Storm 4 March 2015
1. Overview Mid-Atlantic Ice Storm 4 March 2015 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A large 500 hpa ridge over the southern United States (Fig. 1a-e)) built into the Mid-Atlantic
More informationMid Atlantic Severe Event of 1 May 2017 Central Pennsylvania QLCS event By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803
1. Overview Mid Atlantic Severe Event of 1 May 2017 Central Pennsylvania QLCS event By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 A strong upper-level wave (Fig.1) moving into a
More informationMulti-day severe event of May 2013
Abstract: Multi-day severe event of 18-22 May 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA A relatively slow moving Trough over the western United States and a ridge
More informationMid Atlantic Heavy rainfall event 1. Overview 2. Methods and Data 3. Pattern
1. Overview Mid Atlantic Heavy rainfall event With an inertial gravity wave? By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 Contributions from the Albany MAP An unseasonably strong
More informationSouthern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding
Abstract: Southern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A severe weather event affected the southern Plains on 31 May 2013. The severe weather event
More information09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A winter storm produced heavy snow over a large portion of Pennsylvania on 8-9 December
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Heavy Rain 7-8 December 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A mid-level short-wave
More informationA summary of the heat episodes of June 2017
A summary of the heat episodes of June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Elissa A. Smith National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Over 1800 record high temperatures were set or tied during the
More informationFlooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013
Flooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Flooding and severe weather affected Pennsylvania on 27 June 2013 (Fig 1). The severe
More informationPatterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region 1. INTRODUCTION
5A.2 Patterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region by Richard H. Grumm * And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16802 1. INTRODUCTION The patterns associated with heavy
More informationMid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015
Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A widespread severe weather event occurred in the eastern United States on 23
More informationHistoric Eastern United States Winter Storm of January 2016: Record snow along the megalopolitan corridor 1. Introduction
Historic Eastern United States Winter Storm of 22-24 January 2016: Record snow along the megalopolitan corridor by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction An historic
More informationThe abrupt end of the Persistent Subtropical Ridge of the autumn of 2016
The abrupt end of the Persistent Subtropical Ridge of the autumn of 2016 1. Introduction by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 Contributions by Elyse Hagner National Weather
More information1. INTRODUCTION. In addition to the severe weather, the
Anomalous Low and its weather impacts 10-12 May 2008 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA And Al Cope National Weather Service Office Mount Holly, NJ 1. INTRODUCTION An unusually
More informationAlaskan heat episode of June 2013-Draft
Alaskan heat episode of 16-19 June 2013-Draft Abstract: By Trevor Alcott National Weather Service Western Region, Salt Lake City UT And Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A strong
More informationThe Long-lived eastern US tornadic supercell of 20 July 2017
1. Overview The Long-lived eastern US tornadic supercell of 20 July 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Elissa A Smith National Weather Service State College, PA A long lived supercell developed near the eastern
More informationSouthern United States Winter Storm of 28 January 2014-v1. High Impact Snow on Edge of Forecast Precipitation Shield
Southern United States Winter Storm of 28 January 2014-v1 High Impact Snow on Edge of Forecast Precipitation Shield by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 and 1. Introduction
More informationNew England Record Maker Rain Event of March 2010
National Weather Association, Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, 2011-EJ4 New England Record Maker Rain Event of 29-30 March 2010 RICHARD H. GRUMM National Weather Service, State College, PA
More informationEastern United States Winter Storm of 1-2 February 2015-DRAFT Northeast Ground Hog Storm
Eastern United States Winter Storm of 1-2 February 2015-DRAFT Northeast Ground Hog Storm By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A major Winter Storm brought precipitation
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events New Zealand heavy rain and flood event-draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A record
More informationEastern United States Anafrontal Snow 4-5 March 2015-Draft
Eastern United States Anafrontal Snow 4-5 March 2015-Draft By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A 500 hpa ridge over the western Atlantic (Fig. 1) and an approaching
More informationCold frontal Rainband and Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event 28 September 2006 by Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes
Cold frontal Rainband and Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event 28 September 2006 by Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes 1. INTRODUCTION A strong cold front moved across central Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic
More information5A.3 THE USE OF ENSEMBLE AND ANOMALY DATA TO ANTICIPATE EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
5A.3 THE USE OF ENSEMBLE AND ANOMALY DATA TO ANTICIPATE EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. Neil A. Stuart(1), Richard H. Grumm(2), John Cannon(3), and Walt Drag(4) (1)NOAA/National Weather Service,
More informationWinter Storm of February 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803
1. INTRODUCTION Winter Storm of 11-13 February 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803 A potent winter storm brought snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to the
More informationSevere Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Severe Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong cold front brought severe weather to much of
More informationThanksgiving Eve snow of November 2014
1. Overview Thanksgiving Eve snow of 26-27 November 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA An early season east coast winter storm (ECWS: DeGaetano et al. 2002) brought snow
More informationThe Spring Storm of April 2007 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803
The Spring Storm of 13-16 April 2007 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A major spring storm struck the eastern United States from 13 through 16
More informationEastern United States Ice Storm of December 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Eastern United States Ice Storm of 11-12 December 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A significant ice storm affected the eastern United States on
More informationHeat wave ending severe events of July 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Heat wave ending severe events of 23-25 July 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong subtropical ridge (Fig. 1a) dominated the eastern
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events The southern Express: High Impact Spring Storm of 14-17 April 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803
More informationEastern United States Synoptic Rain Event May 2014-Draft
1. Overview Eastern United States Synoptic Rain Event 15-16 May 2014-Draft heavy rain and flooding event By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A deep 500 hpa trough with -4σ height
More informationThe Devastating Mid-Mississippi Valley Floods of 1-2 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The Devastating Mid-Mississippi Valley Floods of 1-2 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION A devastating heavy rainfall event affected the Mid-Mississippi Valley (MMV) from
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Historic Ohio Valley January Severe weather and Tornado Event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 and
More informationRecent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets
Recent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets Abstract: Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, Pennsylvania and Anne Balogh The Pennsylvania State University
More informationNWS-PSU Case Study Site 2010 Severe Weather Case
NWS-PSU Case Study Site 2010 Severe Weather Case New Years Eve Severe Weather Event of 31 December 2010 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16083 Abstract: A surge of warm humid
More informationAnticipating record events using patterns and pattern forecast: Mid-Mississippi Valley floods of April 2011
Anticipating record events using patterns and pattern forecast: Mid-Mississippi Valley floods of April 2011 Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: A persistent pattern produced
More informationHurricane Alex: Heavy rainfall and anomalous precipitable water By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Hurricane Alex: Heavy rainfall and anomalous precipitable water By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Alex ambled across the Gulf of Mexico
More informationLow-end derecho of 19 August 2017
Low-end derecho of 19 August 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern Ohio around 1800 UTC on 19
More informationOrographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Orographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION During the overnight hours and into the early morning of
More informationThe southern express: Winter storm of January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The southern express: Winter storm of 28-30 January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION A storm system of Pacific origin tracked across the southern United States from 27-31
More informationThe Big Chill of November 2013
The Big Chill of November 2013 Value of anomalies for situational awareness By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Trevor Alcott National Weather Service, Salt Lake City UT 1. Overview
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Eastern United States Winter Storm and Severe Event of 28-29 February 2012 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College
More informationEnsemble Forecasts of the Blizzard of January 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College Pennsylvania
Ensemble Forecasts of the Blizzard of 22-23 January 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College Pennsylvania 1. Introduction A fast moving upper-level disturbance produced a wide area
More informationWet weeks in the warm season: Patterns and processes supporting widespread multi-day precipitation episodes!
Wet weeks in the warm season: Patterns and processes supporting widespread multi-day precipitation episodes! Russ S. Schumacher and Samantha L. Lynch! Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State
More informationWarm Episode of December 2015:
Warm Episode of 11-16 December 2015: Record Warmth over Mid-Atlantic Region By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A strong 500 hpa ridge over the eastern United States
More informationA LOOK AT TROPICAL STORM GASTON FLOODING IN VIRGINIA
J12B.4 A LOOK AT TROPICAL STORM GASTON FLOODING IN VIRGINIA John Billet* and Keith Lynch NOAA/NWS Wakefield, VA 1. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Gaston made landfall north of Charleston, SC on Sunday morning
More informationThe Deep South snowfall of February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, PA 16803
The Deep South snowfall of 11-13 February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A surface cyclone tracked across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico
More informationWarm Episode over Indian Sub-continent March 2010 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College Contributions by Lance Bosart SUNY Albany
Warm Episode over Indian Sub-continent March 2010 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College Contributions by Lance Bosart SUNY Albany 1. INTRODUCTION A massive subtropical ridge formed over
More informationSevere Weather Event of 13 July 2014
Severe Weather Event of 13 July 2014 By Richard H. Grumm and Elyse M. Colbert National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Severe weather affected the eastern United States (Fig. 1) from northwestern
More informationThe Devastating Western European Winter Storm February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The Devastating Western European Winter Storm 27-28 February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION A strong late winter storm, called Xynthia 1, raced across Western Europe
More information1. INTRODUCTION * Figure 1. National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm reports for December 1, 2006.
P1.14 FORECAST ISSUES RELATED TO THE UNPRECEDENTED SEVERE AND HIGH WIND EVENT OF DECEMBER 2006 by Greg A. DeVoir* and Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Southern Express 18-19 February 2012: Probabilities, Potentials and uncertainty by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State
More informationMultiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997)
Multiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997) Matthew Potter, Lance Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and Environmental
More informationEarly Summer Heat Waves of 2013
Early Summer Heat Waves of 2013 Abstract: By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA And Trevor Alcott National Weather Service, Salt Lake City Utah From late June into mid-july large
More informationWest Coast Multi-Day heavy Precipitation Event 28 November-2 December 2012-Draft
West Coast Multi-Day heavy Precipitation Event 28 November-2 December 2012-Draft By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 Contributions by the Albany MAP and
More information1. INTRODUCTION. The super storm of March 1993 produced severe weather and tornadoes as it s trailing cold front pushed through Florida (Kocin eta 1l
1. INTRODUCTION Super Tuesday and awful Wednesday: the 5-6 February 2008 Severe Weather Outbreak By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA And Seth Binau National Weather Service,
More informationEast Coast Heavy Rainfall of January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
1. INTRODUCTION A strong storm moved across the United States from 21 January through 25 January 2010 (Fig. 1). This storm produced record rainfall and snowfall in the western United States from 20-22
More informationDeep Cyclone and rapid moving severe weather event of 5-6 June 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Deep Cyclone and rapid moving severe weather event of 5-6 June 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A rapidly deepening surface cyclone raced
More informationHigh Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction for High Impact and Extreme Weather Events in 2014 across Southern California
High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction for High Impact and Extreme Weather Events in 2014 across Southern California Alex Tardy Alexander.Tardy@noaa.gov NWS San Diego Warning Coordination Meteorologist
More informationThe North American Heat Wave of July 2011-Draft
The North American Heat Wave of July 2011-Draft By Richard H. Grumm And Jason Krekeler 328 Innovation Blvd Suite 330 National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 The meteorological conditions
More informationPredecessor Rain Events: A Literature Review. By: Tony Viramontez
Predecessor Rain Events: A Literature Review By: Tony Viramontez Introduction Predecessor Rain Event (PRE): meso- and subsynopticscale regions of high-impact heavy rainfall that occur well in advance of
More informationUtilizing Ensemble-based Anomalies to Anticipate Significant Events A New Display Tool
Utilizing Ensemble-based Anomalies to Anticipate Significant Events A New Display Tool Randy Graham 1, Rich Grumm 2, Nanette Hosenfeld 1, Trevor Alcott 3 1 NOAA/NWS Salt Lake City UT 2 NOAA/NWS State College
More informationPennsylvania Severe Weather of September 2016
Pennsylvania Severe Weather of September 2016 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview September 2016 was a relatively quiet month for severe weather across most of the
More informationDevastating Tornadoes of 22 May 2011-Draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA
Abstract: Devastating Tornadoes of 22 May 2011-Draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A series of tornadoes struck the central United States on Sunday 22 May 2011. Tornadoes
More informationEastern United States Winter Storm of February Dealing with Divergent Model and Ensemble Forecast Systems
Eastern United States Winter Storm of 12-14 February 2014 Dealing with Divergent Model and Ensemble Forecast Systems By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction
More informationThanksgiving Snow and Arctic Front 25 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16801
Thanksgiving Snow and Arctic Front 25 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16801 1. INTRODUCTION An approaching arctic front brought light snow to most of western
More informationJustin Arnott and Michael Evans NOAA National Weather Service, Binghamton, NY. Richard Grumm NOAA National Weather Service, State College, PA
3A.5 REGIONAL SCALE ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT OF 7 FEBRUARY 2007 Justin Arnott and Michael Evans NOAA National Weather Service, Binghamton, NY Richard Grumm NOAA National Weather
More information