Forecasts from SPC. 20 May 2013 Newcastle OKC Moore Tornado. 19 May 2013 Tornadoes. Motivation. Context about driving

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Augustus Little
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Forecasts from SPC Forecasts are one thing; People are another! Mot ivators and Important Factors Influencing Tornado Decisions in Oklahoma during May 2013 Dr.

Harold Brooks University of Oklahoma CAPS, CIMMS, CASR NOAA SPC, NSSL 19 May 2013 20 May 2013 31 May 2013 19 May 2013 Tornadoes 20 May 2013 Newcastle OKC Moore Tornado

shelter seeking behavior 2 deadly events in central OK on 19 20 May 2013 culminates on 31 May Mass exodus ensues Many fatalities from tornadoes and flash flooding on 31 May

1 Forecasts from SPC Forecasts are one thing; People are another! Mot ivators and Important Factors Influencing Tornado Decisions in Oklahoma during May 2013 Dr. Daphne LaDue Dr. James Correia Jr Julia Ross Dr. Joe Ripberger, Dr. Jack Friedman Dr. Harold Brooks University of Oklahoma CAPS, CIMMS, CASR NOAA SPC, NSSL 19 May May May May 2013 Tornadoes 20 May 2013 Newcastle OKC Moore Tornado Tornado Emergency Strikes to Norman, OKC, Shawnee, Edmond, and Unincorporated areas Strikes to Newcastle, OKC, Moore Motivation Context about driving May 2011 tornadoes shelter seeking behavior 2 deadly events in central OK on May 2013 culminates on 31 May Mass exodus ensues Many fatalities from tornadoes and flash flooding on 31 May Driving away is complicated Vehicles are not safe shelters (Marshall et al 2008) but are safer than mobile homes (Hammer and Schmidlin 2002) When to drive makes all the difference How many people drive away and to where is important. Semi Trailers getting thrown in Dallas, TX 1

How do we learn from these events? Survey developed 48 questions, 20 45 minutes Collected data on: Demographics What people did during the three separate events. Peoples stories.

Three samples: Nov 2013 National Weather Festival (34) Mar 2014 National Weather Center Snowball sampling (43) Aug 2014 More sampling at the NWC (20) 97 total responses Table 1: Example Survey

If you drove away, when and why did you decide to do 7,8 so? 9 If you drove away, what happened?

2 How do we learn from these events? Survey developed 48 questions, minutes Collected data on: Demographics What people did during the three separate events. Peoples stories. If people knew about, had, would or could mitigate/protect homes from tornadoes Surveys Tested using cognitive interviews: Will the questions we ask be answered the way we envision? Three samples: Nov 2013 National Weather Festival (34) Mar 2014 National Weather Center Snowball sampling (43) Aug 2014 More sampling at the NWC (20) 97 total responses Table 1: Example Survey Questions Question Number Question 2 Where were you when the storms occurred? 6a As the storms approached your area, what did you do? 6b If you took shelter, what type of shelter was it? If you drove away, when and why did you decide to do 7,8 so? 9 If you drove away, what happened? If you have a story to tell about how these or other 28 events have influenced the way that you think about and respond to tornadoes, please do so here Provided by John Sharp Association of Central Oklahoma Governments Demographics Underrepresented minorities, especially Hispanics Demographics More female than male respondents Age distribution relatively flat Age and Gender Oversampled higher education demo Income distribution is not representative 2

driving Quantitative Analysis Trying to understand, in our words, what happened via structured survey

questions Found themes in the stories What happened to them?

damage 47% reported some damage 54% have (in)direct experience with tornadoes Stay or drive away?

3 Where are they from? Scattered sample towards OKC but concentrated in Norman Methods of analysis Focusing here on sheltering v. driving Quantitative Analysis Trying to understand, in our words, what happened via structured survey questions Qualitative Analysis Trying to understand, in their words, what happened via open ended survey questions Found themes in the stories What happened to them? Past Experience 54% have (in)direct experience with tornadoes 11% reported injuries 21% reported major damage 47% reported some damage 54% have (in)direct experience with tornadoes Stay or drive away? Overall 21% drove away 20% drove to shelter 49% sheltered at home 9% sheltered with a neighbor 22% sheltered in a public place 35% sheltered For any event: 21% drove away (19% drove to a shelter) Zip Codes of participants What did people do? Zip Codes who drove 3

Where did they shelter? Why did people drive away?

Saw others drive away Suggest by fam or friend Drive vs.

chasers + 1 public safety person 48 Drove 27 drove to shelter with, or gather, family together 46 Did not Business Evacuated (1 of 2) May 19: We were at [a casino] in Shawnee.

4 Where did they shelter? Why did people drive away? 33% Interior Room 8% Basement 29% Storm Shelter 15% Public Building 10% Other Storm more dangerous Memory of recent storms Personalization of danger Suggest by media My building unsafe Other reason Saw others drive away Suggest by fam or friend Drive vs. Did Not Drive 2 told to leave by a business 5evade: 2 people on May 19, 3 others on May 20 4 drove to shelter* (other than to family s home) 6* drivers cited media suggestion (2 unclear) 6 storm chasers + 1 public safety person 48 Drove 27 drove to shelter with, or gather, family together 46 Did not Business Evacuated (1 of 2) May 19: We were at [a casino] in Shawnee. We had to cash out and get out. We got in our car and went to a friend s house in Shawnee that had a storm shelter and watched TV in garage as tornado went over. drove away 3pm Next two events: 20th: stayed home; watched TV; sheltered at home 31st: cancelled plans; watched TV; sheltered at home We built a metal house with hills surrounding us. Anchored steel posts in concrete foundation. We grew up in Oklahoma so we are VERY weather aware when forecast indicates storms. Survey #101 Business Evacuated (2 of 2) No answers for first event. May 20: movies at [a movie theater in NE OKC]...went home when evacuated Last event: don t remember (what I did); storms didn t approach; didn t drive Those who evaded from businesses did not drive in subsequent events. location of respondent Survey #271 May 19: We could see the storm approaching as we left [our home northwest of Wellston]...passed storm chasers headed toward our area. May 19: At home in Pink...drove up the street to clear blue skies...watched storm go over my home. Drove to Evade (5) May 20: [Drove] 15 minutes before tornado hit 19th and Santa Fe...Stopped at Lease Road on Santa Fe in Norman and watched as [the tornado] went north of my house... May 20: 4th & Eastern in Moore WalMart When it appeared the tornado would hit the store I and two others got in a vehicle and headed south on Eastern. The tornado path was just south of the store... Survey #232, 140, 233, 126, 260 4

Drove to Evade (5) May 20: My family got into our van and began driving away from our house and the path of the tornado. As we drove we listened to the radiocast about the storm to know where to go.

5 Drove to Evade (5) May 20: My family got into our van and began driving away from our house and the path of the tornado. As we drove we listened to the radiocast about the storm to know where to go. We stopped after awhile though I don t remember where we stopped and the tornado had ended by then. Drove to Shelter* (1 person) *Shelter other than with family, did not cite media as reason 19th: Drove to a neighbor s shelter (only event answered) general memory; drove when storms reached me two kids at home May 31 they stayed at home, sheltering in an interior room location of respondent Those who evaded did so in the last minutes. Survey #260 Surveys #262 Drove to Public Building* (3 people) *Shelter other than with family, did not cite media as reason 19th & 31st: Drove to NWC (at work 2nd event) May 19: drove to shelter; sheltered public building May 31: cancelled plans; drove to shelter 20th: Drove to parent s house, then Norman Regional Hospital left early; drove [to NRH] as storms approached 31st: Drove to NWC (out of town first two events) left 6:45pm; as storms approached seemed more dangerous; building unsafe I drove from my [apartment in s. Norman] to the NWC and sheltered...until the all clear was given. Media Suggestion (1 of 4*) May 19: home; sheltered at home, interior room May 20: cancelled plans; stayed home; monitored radio/tv May 31: Before the storms: At home watching TV cancelled plans; stayed home; watched TV drove out of the area; drove when warning issued Why: general memory; media suggested; building unsafe Got caught in a traffic jam on us 177 south. Took over 1 hour to drive 20 miles south (normally takes 30 minute). Arrived in Asher to out run storm but was caught in a hail core. Suffered damage to my car was listening to channel [x] and [the meteorologist] advising people to head south. Surveys #202, 282, 288 Survey #100 Media Suggestion (2 of 4*) May 19: home; May 20: jury duty; sheltered at courthouse May 31: I was at home watching all the coverage on TV until the weatherman said, if you are not underground you won t be safe. So my family and I left to seek a public storm shelter. Drove at time of warning; when storms reached them [I] don t really remember the time...when it got really close to the Tinker/Dell City area Why: Seemed more dangerous; media suggestion The traffic was gridlocked...the shelters in the mid del city area were closed. We tried to outrun it and ended up taking shelter at a friend of a friends house in Chocktaw. I was so furious that the underground shelters used for years were all closed down Survey #265 Media Suggestion (3 of 4*) May 19: at home; sheltered at home May 20: I was at work left early; sheltered at home; interior room May 31: home then basement of a friends house...i relayed my concerns about the high probability of severe weather to my family and friends drove to a shelter; sheltered in basement Why: general memory; media suggestion; building unsafe my friend who has a basement suggested that we come to her house for the storm. Survey #108 5

6 Media Suggestion (4 of 4*) May 19: flying home from vacation May 20: I just landed OKC that morning...taking nap at home in OKC area. stayed home; sheltered at home; interior room May 31: Left b/c of weather. Went home picked up dog and drove south to Lloyd Noble for shelter drove at time of warning; left 5:30pm Why: media suggestion; building unsafe We do not have a storm shelter at my home. Drove south to Lloyd Noble. Took an hour b/c of traffic. Stayed at Lloyd Noble until weather passed. Was hard to get home b/c of flooding. A lot of damage in neighborhood/area fences down roof damage tree damage down power lines. We did not have power. Media Suggestion Summary These four only mentioned media suggestion for the third event. They all sheltered at home (or work, on 20th) until the last event. 3 of 4 said they: felt their building was unsafe were caught in traffic Survey #333 Drove for Family Reasons Shelter at Family s Home Shelter at a family member s home Be w/family Several people regularly drive to a family member s home; usually a storm shelter there (6) collecting children and going to parents /in laws shelter (3) no children mentioned; went to parents shelter (2) collected children and went to friend/neighbor s shelter Both Surveys #340, 303, 192, 308, 288, 332, 169, 283, 142, 158, 122 Example: Shelter at Family s Home May 19: Drove to my parent s house about 10 mins away. We watched media coverage from there. In case shelter was needed we would have proceeded to the storm cellar. May 20: at work; sheltered in nearby bank vault May 31: Drove from my house to my parents house which was damaged by the May 20 tornado and [found that the] storm cellar was flooded. We decided to head to their neighbor s house who had a safe room. drove at time of warning; seemed more dangerous; general memory; media suggestion; building unsafe Be with Family The single most common reason for driving was to be with family, for many reasons, including: To rescue or protect family: I drove to my home in SE Moore due to my handicapped mother being alone. Told [my sister] that if things got bad I would be there. When the weather looked really bad (I thought a tornado was going to hit the trailer park where she lived) I left to go get her [and her kids]. Survey #332 Surveys #328, 187, 125, 326, 314, 170, 330*, 135, 258, 260, 315 6

7 Be With Family Be With Family To gather family together, in storm shelter: Went to Central Jr. High School when the rain started. I was waiting for my granddaughter. The lady in the car next to me told me that I had to go in to get her so I did. As we came out and started across the parking lot the sirens went off. All I could think was that I had to get [my granddaughter] home so I sped across Main St. to [her] house. We got in the house [gathered emergency supplies] and went into the storm shelter. A few minutes later we heard a car overhead. My [granddaughter] looked out and it was her Dad. He came into the shelter and it seemed to me to be just a couple of minutes ahead of the tornado. near Veteran s Memorial Park in Moore Survey #326 To gather family together, in storm shelter: May 19: storms did not approach; sheltered at home May 20: I was at work when the storms formed and began to develop. Shortly before 2p CDT having examined radar imagery that indicated a severe thunderstorm developing W of Norman I left work and travelled home (E Moore) where a child just arrived from school picked up early by her grandmother. I ensured my child, mother in law, and I were in the storm shelter about 10 mins before the tornado passed by. May 31: at home with family; stayed home; sheltered at home in storm shelter Survey #315 Be with Family Be with family, away from the storms: May 19: watched news reports at home together May 20: We drove away, but chose to do so way before the storms developed. My [meteorologist relative] gave me an overview of what the situation was looking like...and we decided to leave the immediate area. We went west past the dryline where we were out of the path. May 31: Watched storm coverage at our aprt (temporary living arrangement due to our primary residence suffering damage on May 20). Two others drove away just before or as the storm was hitting on May 20. Be with Family Be with family: On May 20th 2013 we had our 5 yr old son in school. Though we were not concerned with a direct hit from a tornado we elected to pick him up from school early. We did not want him to experience shelter in place at his school...we wanted him home with us. Surveys # 187, 330*, 125 Survey #314 Expressions of Fear 61% expressed fear, directly (31%) or indirectly (30%) Before the storm: relayed concerns about the high probability fear for daughter s safety at school During the storm: taking shelter with my terrified 3rd graders before we got [to our shelter]...neighbors [already there]...we didn t all fit Explicit Expressions During the storm, while driving: People were driving in the wrong lane... standstill interstate traffic made me nervous traffic was unbearable...gridlock panic my neighbor was clearly on edge and scared I saw expressions of panic on people s faces at this time I pulled over because I became overwhelmed All I could think was that I had to get [my granddaughter] home Surveys #108, 158, 282, 308 Surveys #134, 194, 265, 288, 312, 327 7

8 Take Aways Primary reasons people drove: gather family shelter with family businesses evacuated media suggestion + building unsafe Traffic heavy east metro area on May 20, and throughout the area on May 31 Take Aways Most people who took our survey had a clear purpose Larger cultural changes/background: caring for aging parents, kids changes in vulnerability advances in public understanding Positive: mobile home=bad Negative: all homes are unsafe* Negative: you will die if not underground *Ripberger et al (2015): high consequence language may cause individuals to question the level of safety that their residence can provide and, as a result, induce them to flee in search of what they perceive to be a safer location. Wisdom Gained I will not take severe weather warnings for granted My response to the whole season has changed. I do not wait till sirens sound to be where I need to be safe. I had never felt the need to invest in a storm shelter...but the traffic gridlock that day ruined my plan to drive out of the danger zone. Looking forward: I will listen to the early warnings from the professionals and get my family together before the storms hit. Surveys #280, 303, 339, 314 8

The General Public s Weather Information-Seeking and Decision-Making Behavior during Tornado Outbreaks in the Oklahoma City Metroplex in May 2013

The General Public s Weather Information-Seeking and Decision-Making Behavior during Tornado Outbreaks in the Oklahoma City Metroplex in May 2013 Chen Ling, Michelle Madison, Jessica Adams, Kevin Warren,