Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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1 NOAA s Climate Prediction Center Climate Monitoring Tool Wassila M. Thiaw and CPC International Team Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction CPC International Team Vadlamani Kumar Nicholas Novella Miliaritiana Robjhon

2 CPC International Desks Website international desks Provide access to real time global and regionalized weather and climate forecasts, enabling decision making in agriculture and water around the world. NCEP GFS and GEFS NCEP CFSv2 and NMME

3 African Desk Webpage The African Desk products are organized under five major tabs: Expert Assessments, Forecasters and Summaries Regional NWP Products All Africa NWP Products Surface Observations, Analyses and Monitoring Products Satellite Precipitation Estimates

4 Regional Hazards Outlooks for Food Security Integrating weather, climate, and land information to inform humanitarian response planning. Caribbean Africa Central America

5 The Climate Monitoring Tool Purpose To develop a web-based tool to monitor seasonal climate trends Products Spatial Precipitation Maps Cumulative Precipitation Time-series Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability (SPP) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Soil Moisture and Runoff Percentiles (CPC Leaky Bucket Model) Data NOAA CPC ARCv2, NOAA CPC Unified Precipitation Analyses, Soil Moisture, and Runoff

6 Africa Rainfall Climatology Version2 (ARC2) A gridded, daily 34-year (1983-present) satellite estimated precipitation dataset at a 0.1 degree spatial resolution centered over Africa. 24-hour estimates (06:00 06:00 UTC) blends inputs from 2 homogeneous sources: GTS rain gauge network measurements 3- hourly geostationary Infra-Red (IR) imagery to compute GPI estimates. ARC2 validates well with independent gauge data with a noted a dry bias over coastal and orographic areas, and over regions where GTS gauge reports are scarce. ARC2 provides users with near-real time monitoring of daily evolution of rainfall, useful for early drought detection. Can also be used in seasonal rainfall predictions Novella, N., and W. Thiaw, 2013, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.

7 ARC2 maps and time series

8 Seasonal Rainfall Performance Probability (SPP) Evaluates the probability of seasonal (e.g., DJF) precipitation over Africa to finish at pre-defined anomaly thresholds from the date the outlook is issued (e.g., Dec 31 st ). < 25% of normal < 50% of normal < 80% of normal 80% - 120% of normal > 120% of normal Employs Kernel Density Estimate (KDE) methods to generate PDF s of projected rainfall for the season based on ARC2 data by utilizing a daily long-term (1983-present) historical record of precipitation performances. Produces probability maps and point time series at a 0.1 degree resolution. SPP can contribute to decision making in agriculture, water, health and food security. Novella, N., and W. Thiaw, 2017, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol.

9 SPP maps and time series

10 Drought Indices Standardized Precipitation Index Soil Moisture Ranking Percentiles Runoff

11 Drought indicators such as SPI, Soil Moisture and runoff are used together with NOAA VHI, NASA NDVI and USGS WRSI, BERM, etc., to assess the impacts of rainfall variability on the ground and the degree to which this variability may impact crops and pastures. Drought Indicators

12 CMT Computing Requirements Operating Environment: Windows (32 or 64 bit, version 7.0 or above) or Linux Software Packages: CYGWIN, GrADS, GNU Fortran Compiler (MINGW) Software Utilities: WGET and Image Magick The above software is included in the CMT package The installation procedure is also provided

13 Required Software CYGWIN OpenGr ads MINGW FORTRAN 32-bit or 64- bit DOUBLE CLICK ON THESE ICONS ACTIVATE THE INSTALL PROCESS

14 Initial Beta Implementation Geographical Coverage: Africa, West Africa, East Africa, Southern Africa Burkina Faso, Senegal, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Zimbabwe Date of availability: January 2017 Full documentation will be provided Future Versions More countries NDVI based products

15 Data Sources ARC2 URL

16 Data Sources ARC2 Climatology URL

17 Data Sources SPP URL

18 Data Sources Drought Monitor URL

19 Computational Process Startup Comman d line Script Download Daily ARC2 and Clim Data for the past 180 days using wget utility Process Spatial Maps of Total Precipitation, Anomaly, Percent Normal And Clamatology 7day, 10day, 30day, 60day, 90day and 180day Process Cumulative Precipitation Time Series Graphs 30day, 60day, 90day and 180day At grid points as well as at station locations DOWNLOAD Download SPP Data DATA And AND PROCESS Process SPP Maps MAPS Terminate Process Initiate the User Interface By Invoking The Browser Initiating Comma Download Drought Monitoring Data And Process SPI Maps, Soil Moisture Percentiles AND Runoff Percentiles

20 Computing Constraints and Resolution Computation time restricted to 200 point for the generation of point or station time series Africa 2.5 deg. lat-lon Larger countries: 1.0 deg. Lat-lon Smaller countries: 0.5 deg. Lat-lon

21 Demonstration Burkina Senegal Zimbabwe

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24 Mouse over station displays station name and a click on it displays the graph of the time-series. Grid points within the boundary are active and when clicked display the graph.

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